Major Jordanian Strategic Summaries

The private meetings that King Abdullah II regularly conducts with elites of Jordanian politicians indicate that the decision-making center in Amman wants to expand the margin of Jordanian political movement internationally, through political and economic openness to friendly Muslim countries in Asia, which is interpreted by the King's recent tour of several countries there, signing agreements, and primarily developing economic understandings, as well as enhancing relations with the European Union, which has led to a significant increase in the agreements for aid and grants provided to Jordan.

However, the most important aspect of this Jordanian political review concerns the lessons learned militarily and strategically from the war on Gaza and the subsequent regional developments. Three main summaries can be discussed here, related to the sources of threat to Jordan's national security, the redefinition of strategic interests and regional alliances, and finally, the shift in the concept of wars and its relation to military technology.

The first summary relates to strengthening the conviction that the main source of threat to Jordan in recent years and in the coming years is the Israeli right-wing government. It is clear, at the same time, that there is a complete shift in the Israeli political and electoral center and in the Israeli society's directions toward peace and the two-state solution, along with a consensus in Israeli political and military circles to annex the West Bank and politically, logistically, and legally end the Palestinian Authority. This means that there are serious and multiple implications for Jordan, which has led to internal discussions among circles close to the royal court regarding the scenarios and Jordanian strategic options, and the formation of a committee comprising several politicians and prominent leaders to present its results to the decision-making center.

Some discussions clearly speak about the necessity of reviewing Jordanian policies toward the West Bank and Israel, and advocating for greater Jordanian involvement in this file, trying to anticipate (or confront) the successive steps being taken by the Israeli government, through decisions and policies, aimed at ending the Palestinian cause, the Hashemite guardianship over Jerusalem, annexing the West Bank, and completely threatening the Palestinian presence there.

The second summary is that Jordan's strategic interests require enhancing relations with the new axis being formed, which includes Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar, and Egypt. While Jordan is fully aware that there is a significant crisis in relations between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, both of which are allies of Jordan, its position on this crisis is one of distancing and neutrality, and strategically enhancing (and deepening) relations with Saudi Arabia, which has a very similar relationship with Jordan, and with Turkey, which was previously a source of annoyance for Jordan due to its role as a strategic ally of political Islamist movements. It appears that the post-Gaza phase and the regional Israeli policies are bringing Amman and Ankara closer to a deepened relationship, motivating Amman to consider this relationship as strategic in the coming phase.

There is wide common ground in interests and vision between Jordan and Turkey regarding their positions on Israel, the situation in Syria, and the international state as well. Both are friends of the United States in the region, but they fear Trump's policies and his relationship with Benjamin Netanyahu, oppose the war on Iran, want a united Syria, and fear Israeli takeover of the West Bank and Jerusalem.

The third and final summary was articulated through a message that the king sent to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the Jordanian Armed Forces, requesting him to restructure the armed forces, incorporate technology and scientific studies, and develop the forces to be flexible, efficient, and capable of dealing with the new concept of military wars, especially in this region, plagued by conflicts and their complex nature, between military conflicts among regular armies and militias, and the increasing role of drones and cyber warfare. It is clear that there is a complete plan to develop the Jordanian armed forces to deal with this new type, including military industries and diversifying cooperation, as indicated by the Jordanian-Turkish agreements related to defense industries and maritime vessels, and there are talks of greater cooperation with some European countries in this field as well.