Washington, Tehran, and the "Deal of the Century": When the East Revolves Around America

All eyes in the region are on the fate of the Iranian-American negotiations. The second round to be held in Geneva will contribute to determining the course of the negotiations, especially as both parties are seeking to reach an agreement. This agreement will not be limited to the nuclear file, but American and Iranian statements and leaks clearly indicate that they are also looking into missile files, Iran’s allies in the region, economic cooperation after the lifting of sanctions, and exploring the Iranian oil sector and American investments in it, particularly since one of Washington's major concerns with Iran is the matter of controlling Iranian gas exports to China, which relies on it for 80 percent of its consumption.

Preparations for the negotiation round have been facilitated through mediation by numerous countries. Despite Oman hosting the talks, many countries continue to work between the two sides, notably Qatar, which was also visited by the Secretary of the Iranian National Security Council, Ali Larijani, or Russia, which proposes to transfer 60 percent enriched uranium to its territory, in addition to playing the role of a guarantor for Iranian ballistic missiles to ensure they are not used offensively or targeted at American or Israeli interests.

Russia as a Guarantor

According to diplomatic sources, both sides currently incline towards reaching a comprehensive agreement for the Americans without leaving any gaps, even if it is gradual, starting with the nuclear file and then transitioning to other issues. According to Iranian sources, there has been progress in the negotiation process, and based on the negotiation arrangements, an agreement on the nuclear issue is expected, followed by addressing other outstanding files, the most important being the ballistic missile file, which Israel imposes strict conditions on regarding its dismantling or destruction, while Russia proposes to be the guarantor that Tehran will not use these missiles, leading to a role for Moscow as a guarantor of a non-aggression agreement between Tehran and Tel Aviv, ensuring no confrontations between Iran and the United States and that Iranians do not target American interests or Washington’s allies.

The Abrahamic Path

The Americans also raise the issue of establishing peace in the Middle East, even if it does not reach the level of a formal and public agreement, but rather a commitment to stability and not disrupting this path by Iran and its allies, even if other countries in the region sign agreements with Israel, because the current U.S. administration is keen on the matter of expanding peace agreements or Abraham Accords. Among the conditions imposed by Washington is Iran's contribution to persuading Hamas to lay down arms and not oppose the peace process, while it seems that Iran tends to adopt the position of Arab countries that demand and insist on a two-state solution.

Allies and Weapons

The issue of allies will also be present. What the United States wants is to push Iran's allies to accept disarmament and abandon armed fighting against Israel, agreeing to the policy that their countries will decide in addition to integrating their weapons into the state. The Americans also stress the need for Iran to stop supporting its allies financially and militarily, providing commitments that none of Tehran's allies will attack Israel, which is of particular concern for Hezbollah. However, Iran has not made any commitments in this regard so far.

Gas and Israel

Tehran proposes to the Americans lifting sanctions in exchange for opening its markets to American companies for investment within Iran and signing economic cooperation agreements in various fields, in addition to American investments in the Iranian oil and gas sectors, which could lead to a peace agreement between the two sides or at least a non-aggression treaty that includes neighboring countries, particularly the Gulf states, especially since these countries played a significant role in preventing the American war on Iran. In return, Iran is demanding clear American guarantees against any Israeli aggression on its territory and installations, and that Israel does not carry out any political or security schemes inside Iran or disrupt stability or seek to overthrow the regime.

Stopping the Export of Revolution

All this trajectory is linked to the expectation Trump has raised regarding the possibility of reaching an agreement with Iran next month. He aims to achieve swift progress, aligning with the rapid political and strategic transformations globally and regionally. Trump seeks to change all political rules, which will contribute to altering alliances. All this leads to a single conclusion: all the political rules that have arisen in the region since the Iraq War to the Al-Aqsa flood and the wide-scale Israeli war have changed.

Any agreement of this kind will contribute to changing the Iranian path towards the region, and one of its indicators is the reduction of Iranian influence and the cessation of the export of revolution project. This will establish new balances, which Israel is aware of as it seeks to present its expansionist project, launched through its war on Gaza and the region. Israel wants to rely on military and war elements and American support to express its expansionist project, noting that over the past years it hadn’t been able to do so. Israeli expansion comes through alliances and based on peace agreements, while Iran has diminished its regional impact following the blows it has received along with its allies. Additionally, Russia has shown a decline due to its engagement in the Ukrainian war, and China does not seem to have a clear political project, with its focus on economic interests, which the United States is seeking to contain.

Iran's Positioning

Undoubtedly, any shift in Iran, whether politically through the agreement or a regime change if a military strike or dramatic changes occur, will have significant implications for the balances and alliances in the region, particularly in light of the Gulf disagreements which, if they persist, can lead to the reconstruction of new alliances across the Middle East, Asia, and Africa. Here, new blocs might emerge, even if all revolve around the American sphere, from the relationship that unites Israel with India and the Emirates to Africa, or on the opposite shore what Saudi Arabia is pursuing with Turkey and Pakistan as well, noting that these countries are trying to spare Iran from any military strike or a dramatic collapse of the regime, particularly since it is not in their interest for a regime in Iran to be allied with Israel, as this would disrupt the balance of power.

Iran's positioning will be a key factor in defining power balances, while it is clear that America wants to attract new powers and countries to assert that the region stretching from Africa to the Gulf to Asia is allied with the United States, and it seeks to expand its alliances in Asia aiming to undermine China's influence. Here, the American draw is evident for more countries such as Armenia, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, inviting them to participate in forums and conferences sponsored by Washington, noting that all these countries were formerly part of the Soviet sphere.

A New Adversary

If Iran becomes friendly with the U.S. and reaches a non-aggression treaty, or if the regime in Iran collapses and a new regime emerges with good relations with America and Israel, this would mean the Israeli project colliding with other parties and powers in the region, especially since Israel will always need a new enemy or adversary in the area. This might place Saudi Arabia or Turkey in that position, or the existing alliance between them.

Thus, one can conclude that the files are no longer separate from each other, but rather interconnected and related. The competition is not ideological but based on strategic interests and spheres of influence from the Middle East to Asia and Africa. Here, the core issue remains Iran and how it transforms since change there relates not to the survival or fall of the regime or internal transformations, but rather what its foreign policy and alliances will look like.