A Month After the Iran War: 5 Questions About a Worsening and Expanding Conflict

SadaNews - The magazine Le Nouvel Observateur has identified 5 key questions to understand the course of the war in the Middle East, one month after its outbreak, in an analytical report that examines the military, political, and economic dimensions of the conflict.

The war, dubbed "Epic Fury," led by the United States and Israel against Iran, began on February 28, 2026, and its initial strikes resulted in the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The status of his son and successor, Mojtaba, remains shrouded in mystery.

Since then, the conflict has expanded regionally, and its repercussions are affecting global security, energy, and economy. Here are 5 questions to shed light on the current situation of this conflict as it enters its second month:

Firstly, how long will this conflict last?

Regarding the duration of the war, U.S. statements, especially from Secretary of State Marco Rubio, suggest that objectives could be achieved within weeks without ground intervention, while leaving the door open for negotiations despite Tehran's refusal to engage in dialogue, reflecting uncertainty in the timeline of the conflict between military resolution and political settlement.

For his part, American envoy Steve Witkoff expressed hope for discussions with Iran this week, saying at a business forum in Miami: "We believe meetings will take place this week, and we truly hope for that," while Tehran has repeatedly affirmed that it has no intention of negotiating with the United States.

Secondly, how far will the war spread?

Regarding the expansion of the war, the magazine states that the confrontation has surpassed the borders of Iran and Israel to include regional parties, notably the Houthis, who entered the conflict yesterday by targeting sites they described as sensitive within Israel.

Several facilities in the Gulf countries, including the Port of Salalah in Oman and Kuwait International Airport, have been attacked, while Tehran controls the Strait of Hormuz and threatens to extend battles toward another maritime passage, Bab el-Mandeb, signalling a risk of open regional confrontation.

Thirdly, will the war extend to more civilian targets?

The nature of targets has escalated to include civilian infrastructure, particularly in the energy and water desalination sectors. Both sides have exchanged threats to attack vital installations, with U.S. President Donald Trump alluding to targeting electrical facilities in return for Iranian threats to strike energy and technology facilities in the region, indicating a transition of the war to a more dangerous phase.

Fourthly, what are the implications of this war on the global economy?

Economically, the war has caused a shock in energy markets, with oil prices sharply rising amid fears of a repeat of the 1973 crisis when oil prices quadrupled. However, the major economies today are less dependent on oil than they were at the beginning of the 1970s, with nuclear energy and renewable energies available to mitigate the significant shortfall in oil and gas supplies.

Nevertheless, the repercussions remain strong, with rising living costs and some countries taking support measures to alleviate the impact.

According to the latest official statistics released on Friday, the war has resulted in the death of 1,142 people and the displacement of more than a million people in Lebanon.

Overall, the report indicates that the war has entered an open phase of attrition, where military calculations intertwine with economic risks and regional balances, without clear indications of a near end.

Fifthly, how is the situation evolving in Lebanon?

In Lebanon, the situation is worsening after Hezbollah's engagement in fighting in support of Iran, leading to wide military escalation with Israel, particularly in the south, the Beqaa Valley, and the southern suburbs of Beirut, resulting in hundreds of casualties and large-scale displacement, making the Lebanese arena one of the most dangerous fronts of escalation.

Israel continues to bombard Lebanon with all kinds of weapons and is attempting to penetrate southern Lebanon to expand a buffer zone it wants to create along its borders, while Hezbollah claims that its forces are directly confronting this while continuing to launch rockets into Israeli territory.

Source: L'Obs