Europe Records First Decline in Air Passenger Traffic Since COVID-19

SadaNews - European and international data have shown that the repercussions of the Israeli-American war on Iran have begun to pressure the global aviation sector, as Europe’s airports recorded their first annual decline in passenger numbers since the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, while the demand for airlines in the Middle East dropped at the highest rate among regions.

The European Airports Council stated that passenger traffic through the network of European airports decreased by 0.7% in April 2026 compared to the same month last year, marking the first annual decline since April 2021, when the sector began to regain momentum after the pandemic.

The report indicated that the disruptions caused by the war in the Middle East and rising oil prices have impacted travel and air transportation across the continent.

Olivier Jankovitch, the director general of the association, stated, "While we were already witnessing a return to pre-pandemic passenger traffic growth levels following a strong recovery, geopolitical instability, particularly due to the war in the Middle East, is overshadowing growth and revealing significant performance disparities across markets."

This European decline comes as data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) showed that global air travel demand dropped by 3.4% in April compared to the same period last year; however, it would have increased by 1.2% had the Middle East been excluded from the calculations.

According to IATA, demand for international flights fell by 5.3%, while domestic demand remained stable with little to no growth, and the global seat occupancy rate declined to 83.1%.

The Negative Region

IATA's Director General Willie Walsh stated that "the sharp decline of 46.6% in demand for airlines in the Middle East due to the war in the region was significant enough to drag global demand into negative territory at 3.4%."

Walsh added, "The air transport situation remains highly volatile. The cost of aircraft fuel more than doubled in April, which drives ticket prices up. Data on future schedules shows a decrease in supply over the coming months, indicating that airlines are trying to balance rising fuel costs against weak demand."

IATA data revealed that airlines in the Middle East were the most affected, as demand for their international flights declined by 48.1% compared to April 2025, while operational capacity dropped by 38.4%, and the seat occupancy rate fell to 70.1%.

Despite these losses, IATA indicated that the pace of the decline slowed compared to March, with a fragile ceasefire coming into effect.

In contrast, European airlines continued to register limited demand growth of 0.9%, while demand for direct flights between Europe and Asia rose by 15.3% as part of the travel shifted away from routes passing through the Middle East.

Global Meeting

The aviation sector is focused on Rio de Janeiro, where global airline leaders will convene between June 6-8 at IATA's annual general meeting and the World Air Transport Summit to discuss what Reuters described as the biggest crisis facing the sector since the pandemic.

The war on Iran has raised aircraft fuel costs, forced airlines to alter flight paths, and put their ability to pass on these price increases to travelers through ticket hikes under significant pressure.

IATA represents over 370 airlines that account for approximately 85% of global air transport, and before the war on Iran, it expected airlines to achieve record net profits of $41 billion in 2026, with a net profit margin of 3.9%.

Reuters reported that executives and analysts expect these forecasts to be downgraded during the summit, with discussions focusing on rising fuel prices and supply fears, airspace disruptions in the Middle East, exacerbated delays in aircraft deliveries, and how far companies have strayed from their climate goals.

Airlines have already begun raising prices and reducing unprofitable routes while maintaining liquidity until pressures ease, raising questions about their ability to meet IATA's target of net zero carbon emissions by 2050 amid rising costs of sustainable aviation fuel and limited supplies.

Source: Reuters