Iran's War Puts Water Security in the Gulf Under Scrutiny

SadaNews - Iran's war has revealed a crucial issue in the oil-rich Gulf region, namely its dependence on desalination plants.

The countries in the region suffer from a scarcity of natural freshwater resources, prompting them to convert seawater into potable water to meet the growing needs of their populations and support industrial activity, in addition to enhancing food production.

During the war, three desalination facilities have been damaged so far, although two of them continued to operate. Nevertheless, the risks remain high if these facilities turn into recurring targets, as any wide disruption in desalination operations could lead to a humanitarian and economic crisis in the region.

Why are desalination facilities in the Gulf so important?

The Gulf is one of the most water-scarce regions in the world. Gulf governments have increasingly turned to desalination to provide drinking water, especially with the rapid expansion of major cities like Abu Dhabi and Doha. This technology has been a key element in transforming Gulf countries into business and tourism hubs capable of hosting golf courses, indoor ski slopes, and data centers in the heart of the desert.

The six member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, and the UAE) account for nearly half of the world's installed desalination capacity, and millions of residents in these countries, home to about 60 million people, rely on desalination plants to secure their water needs, including over 8 million people in the Saudi capital Riyadh and more than 4 million residents in Dubai, the UAE's largest city.

Desalination facilities produce about 90% of the freshwater used in Kuwait, 86% in Oman, 70% in Saudi Arabia, and 42% in the UAE, according to the French Institute of International Relations.

In contrast, Iran relies less on desalination, as it still obtains most of its water resources from rivers, reservoirs, and groundwater. However, the country has faced consecutive years of severe drought. President Masoud Pezeshkian warned in November that the capital Tehran might need to be evacuated due to worsening water scarcity.

What places desalination plants in the region at risk of attacks?

An additional protocol to the Geneva Conventions, which governs rules of conduct during armed conflicts, prohibits targeting drinking water facilities as they are considered "essential for the survival of civilian populations." Accordingly, desalination plants in the Gulf - which are often located on the coasts - are supposed to be outside the scope of military targeting.

However, Iran accused the United States of striking one of the desalination facilities on Qeshm Island in the Arabian Gulf. According to Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, water supply for 30 villages was disrupted, and he stated that the Americans set a precedent by targeting this infrastructure. The United States denied targeting the plant, stating it was firing on military facilities.

Following that incident, Bahrain announced that one of its desalination plants had been hit by an Iranian drone strike, although water supplies were unaffected. Debris from an intercepted projectile also caused a fire at the Western Doha Electricity and Desalination Complex in Kuwait.

Desalination plants are often established next to power generation plants due to their need for large amounts of energy to remove salt, minerals, and other impurities from seawater. This connection makes them more susceptible to damage when targeting energy production assets.

Desalination facilities have been deliberately destroyed in previous conflicts, such as the Gulf War of 1990-1991. Iraqi forces not only attacked Kuwait's desalination capacity but also released crude oil into the Arabian Gulf, polluting the seawater. Kuwait had to rely on emergency water supplies from countries including Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

What can Gulf states do if desalination plants stop operating?

Replacing a destroyed desalination plant can take years because it relies on complex and costly technology. Even repairing damaged facilities could take weeks or months. Pipeline networks that transport water to inland cities and towns represent another vulnerability, although they can be repaired more quickly if attacked.

Gulf countries have worked to build strategic reserves of drinking water as a safety margin in the event of immediate disruption. However, these stocks usually last only a few days. As part of water security strategy, the UAE seeks to develop storage capacity sufficient to provide more than 45 days of supply in "extreme emergency situations."

In the short term, a halt in desalination could be addressed by restricting water use for businesses, rationing water consumption for households, and distributing bottled water. If remaining supplies start to run low, authorities may have to consider evacuation operations.

If the Iran War escalates to the point of regularly targeting desalination plants, Iranian forces may look beyond the Gulf in attempts to strike facilities in Israel.

Even if they succeed in doing so, the impact there may be more limited, as Israel has alternative water sources it can rely on, such as the Sea of Galilee, according to Seth Siegel, author of "Let There Be Water: Israel’s Solution for a Water-Starved World." Siegel stated that the disruption of one or two desalination plants in the country "would be a major headache, but it would not be a disaster."