Behind the Scenes.. What Does France Want from Its New Initiative in Lebanon?

SadaNews - As the military tension on the Lebanese-Israeli front expands and fears grow of the confrontation escalating into an open war, France has reintroduced a new diplomatic initiative aimed at containing the escalation.

However, the initiative that began to take shape earlier this month is not limited to merely halting military escalation, as announced by Paris, but extends to rearranging the political and security situation in Lebanon.

While French diplomacy officially speaks of "efforts to prevent slipping into war," experts and analysts see the initiative carrying broader political and strategic dimensions that go beyond what the public statements reveal.

To Avoid Chaos

French President Emmanuel Macron suggested the day before yesterday, Saturday, to host direct talks between Lebanon and Israel in Paris with the aim of reaching a ceasefire.

Following his conversation with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, Macron stated, "We must do everything we can to prevent Lebanon from slipping into chaos." He also confirmed in a tweet posted on his account on the "X" platform that "Israel should seize this opportunity to begin discussions for a ceasefire, finding a lasting solution and empowering Lebanese authorities to meet their commitments towards Lebanon's sovereignty."

According to European diplomatic sources, the French initiative includes enhancing the deployment of the Lebanese Army in the south and expanding the role of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), in an attempt to avert direct confrontation between Hezbollah and Israel.

In a statement in both Arabic and French, Macron specifically criticized the actions of Hezbollah, an announced ally of Iran, while simultaneously urging Israel to "abandon its extensive assault and halt its intensive air raids, in light of the displacement of hundreds of thousands of people due to the bombing."

For his part, the French President's personal representative in Lebanon, Jean-Yves Le Drian, believed that Hezbollah's intervention in the Middle East war "puts Iran's interests against those of the Lebanese."

Le Drian confirmed in an interview on "France Inter" radio that "the Israeli response has been excessive since that moment," considering that "the primary responsibility for what is happening in Lebanon lies with Hezbollah."

In light of the magnitude of the crisis in Beirut, Paris announced through Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot the dispatch of 60 tons of humanitarian aid for refugees fleeing from southern Lebanon. France is also preparing to supply the Lebanese Armed Forces with dozens of armored personnel carriers, according to Barrot.

Negotiation or Normalization?

It seems that what appears in the media and in official statements does not fully reflect everything happening behind the scenes. According to Ziad Majed, a political science professor at the American University in Paris, this initiative is still "unofficial" and there are leaks revealing what is not publicly said.

Majed suggested in an interview with Al Jazeera Net that the primary goal is to achieve a ceasefire, followed by pushing for the disarmament of Hezbollah by Lebanese security agencies, particularly the army, while providing guarantees to Israel, where disarmament operations would occur under international monitoring involving France and the United States.

The third goal is related to creating a new negotiating framework that may pave the way for broader understandings between Lebanon and Israel in the future, leading to some form of normalization. For example, through negotiations on the border area to decide whether Israel will withdraw directly or whether it will become a buffer zone without residents.

The French Foreign Ministry has confirmed that there is "no French plan" to end the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel in Lebanon. This statement follows a report by the American website "Axios" which claimed that France had proposed a plan to end the war that includes Lebanon recognizing the state of Israel.

The ministry stated, "France has supported the Lebanese authorities’ openness to engage in direct talks with Israel and offered to facilitate them. The parties themselves will determine the agenda of these talks."

Difficulties and Challenges

Acknowledging the strategic importance of Lebanon in the region, Paris does not hide that any prolonged military confrontation could lead to the collapse of what remains of Lebanese state institutions, a scenario that would open the door to a security and political chaos that would be difficult to contain.

In this context, researcher and political analyst Gérald Olivier sees that Paris is seeking to prevent Lebanon from becoming a battlefield for regional conflict whose repercussions could extend to the Mediterranean Sea and Europe, especially amid growing fears concerning the disruption of trade and energy routes.

Olivier affirmed to Al Jazeera Net that France has a clear desire to regain its traditional role in the Lebanese issue after years of diminishing influence in favor of other regional powers, not excluding the normalization of relations with Israel - even if indirectly - within broader regional arrangements.

Despite this French diplomatic move, the success of the initiative remains uncertain; the complex Lebanese political reality and the entanglement of regional calculations may make it impossible to translate the French proposal into an actual agreement on the ground.

According to academic Ziad Majed, what may delay the initiative is France's desire to ensure Shiite representation in the Lebanese delegation - which any authority in Lebanon seeks - so that the decision appears national, clarifying that the French focus relies on contacts with Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri to agree on participation, not personally but through representatives, to form something resembling national consensus around the negotiations.

He also pointed out that there are no guarantees that Israel would agree to withdraw from southern Lebanon, as it refuses a ceasefire before negotiations, expecting Israel to impose numerous conditions that would hinder any agreement, unless it conforms to American lines that impose peace and economic cooperation in the border region.

In a region where political initiatives have long turned into protracted negotiation paths and tussles, the question remains open: Will France succeed diplomatically in containing the escalation, or will its initiative remain merely an attempt to postpone a wider confrontation?