Why the War on Iran May Last Longer?

SadaNews - Columnist Paul Post and legal scholar at the University of Chicago, Beigah Bani Hashimi, in their joint article in Time magazine, argue that the war on Iran might not be as brief as political rhetoric suggests, but could evolve into a prolonged and complicated conflict intertwined with military, political, and economic considerations.

The article pointed out that Trump accurately described the war's nature at the beginning when he said it would "not be quick.” During the announcement of the military campaign against Iran, he spoke about possible American casualties.

A few days later, he stated that the war could last "4 to 5 weeks," or "much longer" if necessary, and mentioned in an interview with Axios that the war would end soon, adding, "Whenever I want it to end, it will end."

According to the Time article, the U.S. administration's stated objectives for the war range from curbing nuclear ambitions to seeking the overthrow of the Iranian regime, amidst conflicting estimates regarding the duration of this confrontation, which observers believe could develop into a long-term war of attrition.

In the view of Post and Bani Hashimi, this oscillation in objectives reflects ambiguity in the American strategy regarding how to end the war or what the next phase will look like.

The authors explained that the field realities and historical evidence suggest otherwise than Trump's claim that the war would be short-term, based on data from the American "War Engagements" project, which confirmed that most wars between states in the last two centuries were relatively short, not exceeding 5 months.

However, there are notable exceptions such as the war in Ukraine, which has entered its fourth year, or the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, which lasted 8 years, according to the article.

System Collapse Unlikely

The authors suggest that it is unlikely for the Iranian regime to collapse; it is not merely a government but a vast network of political, security, and economic institutions supported by oil revenues and international relations accumulated over decades.

Even after the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in an airstrike, the government did not fall, and the Islamic Republic quickly followed a constitutional path by transferring power to an interim leadership, with his son Mojtaba Khamenei chosen as the new Supreme Leader.

According to the authors, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and its affiliated Basij forces have shown resilience in facing a war against much stronger adversaries. Over decades, the Revolutionary Guard has undergone intensive ideological and organizational scrutiny aimed at producing cadres that are deeply loyal to the regime.

The authors believe that airstrikes might damage Iran's military and economic structure, but they would not be sufficient to overthrow the regime or break the will of these forces.

Mobilizing the Masses

Internally, nationalist spirit plays a crucial role in prolonging the conflict, according to the article. The threat of supporting ethnic groups such as the Kurds, despite Trump's denial, raises fears among Iranians of state disintegration, motivating both opponents and supporters to rally behind the national flag against foreign intervention, just as during the Iran-Iraq war.

On the international front, the threads of the crisis are intertwined with reports of Russian intelligence and Chinese technology support for Tehran, while Washington seeks Ukraine's assistance to counter Iranian drones.

The authors conclude that the Trump administration appears to practice a form of what they call "strategic hedging," hinting at the possibility of a quick victory while simultaneously preparing public opinion for the potential of a longer conflict.

However, Post and Bani Hashimi argue in their article that this ambiguity in objectives may make it more difficult to reach a clear end to the war and place decision-makers in Washington and Tel Aviv before a crucial question: Are the desired objectives worth the cost of a comprehensive war of attrition in a highly sensitive region?