Will America Strike Iran? An Extensive Reading of Regional and International Conflict

So far, there is no confirmed war or declared military strike against Iran. What we witness is a significant escalation in political discourse, military mobilization, and mutual threats between Washington and Tehran. However, this does not necessarily mean that an imminent military strike will occur; these statements may be part of a diplomacy of pressure and deterrence rather than a precursor to a comprehensive war.

Iran is a powerful regional state with an advanced missile arsenal capable of impacting the entire region. Any potential American strike could lead to a wide and violent Iranian response, raising the level of risks to unprecedented heights. Iran has explicitly stated that it will treat any attack as a war for existence, which may push it to launch comprehensive strikes targeting Israel under what is known as a scorched earth policy. The response may also involve aircraft carriers, American bases, and oil-rich countries in the region. In this context, Gaza plays a strategically important role, not only as part of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict but also due to its maritime location and potential gas resources as an alternative to Russian gas. There have been ideas to turn the sector into an economic or tourist zone after demographically and politically reshaping it, making control over it part of geopolitical and economic calculations in the Eastern Mediterranean. Some circles have also proposed projects like the "Ben Gurion" road as an alternative route to the Suez Canal, adding another strategic dimension to the conflict.

The policies of President Donald Trump have been characterized by continuous escalation and a departure from traditional diplomatic solutions. Trump has threatened both major and minor countries, from Iran and North Korea to China and Europe, using sanctions and military threats as essential negotiation tools. In the Middle East, his policies contributed to the end of the two-state solution, leaving Palestine without a political horizon, thus keeping the region in a state of low-intensity conflict that could explode at any moment despite the discourse on peace. Initiatives have been proposed that can be described as formal peace councils or selling illusions aimed at managing the conflict by force and imposing new realities on the ground, including control over the West Bank and Gaza and exploiting their resources.

The United States historically prefers pressure, deterrence, and sanctions rather than getting involved in an open war. The aim of any potential strike is often not to overthrow the Iranian regime, but to modify its regional behavior. The adopted American policy is: "We strike without sinking," meaning carefully limited strikes to send political and military messages without slipping into a full-scale confrontation.

The United States does not operate in a vacuum but in a complex international arena where the interests of Russia and China intersect regarding files like Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Sudan, and even Venezuela. In addition, tensions in relations with Europe, including disputes related to Greenland, further complicate the international situation. Any American escalation towards Iran could ignite several fronts simultaneously, a scenario that Washington understands well in terms of its dangers. Meanwhile, clear efforts are being made by Arab countries and others to reduce tensions and prevent slipping into a comprehensive confrontation, recognizing that any war would have catastrophic effects on the entire region. Arab states, especially oil-rich ones, realize that their countries and oil are the next target after getting rid of the Iranian threat.

The current scene is closer to a struggle of wills and mutual deterrence messages rather than a clear decision for war. The real danger lies not in an intentional war but in miscalculation or mistakes in assessments, especially in light of escalation policies that lack sustainable political solutions, leaving the region hanging on the edge of permanent explosion.