From the Iran War to Reshaping the Middle East: Do Palestinians Have the Ability to Seize the Moment?

The war on Iran is not merely a military confrontation between two states or two axes, but a pivotal event that could reshape the structural balances in the Middle East, and perhaps leave its mark on the trajectory of ongoing transformations in the international system as well. This war, with its intertwining of regional geopolitical dynamics and the global struggle for influence, opens the door to multiple scenarios: from the reaffirmation of American-Israeli dominance to the region sliding into extended chaos, or the emergence of new balances under a gradually more pluralistic international system.

Israel Between Military Supremacy and Erosion of Legitimacy

In one possible scenario, Israel might emerge from the war with increased confidence in its ability to impose its military will on the region. Weakening Iran, whether by striking its nuclear capabilities or undermining its military structure, could enhance Israel's position as the most dominant military power in the Middle East, cementing its role as the cornerstone of the American strategy in the region.

However, this military supremacy intersects with negative internal transformations within Israeli society itself. The deep polarization between extremist religious nationalist currents and liberal movements now reflects a struggle over the identity of the state and the limits of the use of force. The successive wars in the region, including the genocidal campaign against the Gaza Strip, have revealed that tactical military achievements can be accompanied by an increasing strategic cost, whether in the form of growing political isolation or the erosion of Israel's standing within broad sectors of global public opinion, including within the United States itself. Thus, Israel may find itself facing a complex paradox: increasing military superiority alongside a decline or even degradation in its international standing.

The Gulf: Between Security and Strategic Hedging

The Gulf states stand at the heart of this complex equation. If the war leads to a decisive weakening of Iran, some of these countries may tend to strengthen their ties to the American security umbrella, and perhaps engage to varying degrees in new regional security arrangements that Israel could be a part of.

However, the experience of the region over the past decades has shown that regional imbalances do not necessarily lead to stability, but may open the door to new waves of uncertainty. For this reason, some Gulf states may seek to maintain a broader margin of maneuvering, balancing their relations between Washington and rising international powers, primarily China.

The United States: Reaffirming Influence Amid Risks of Drainage

For Washington, the war on Iran represents an attempt to reaffirm its leadership position in the Middle East after years of relative decline. A successful effort to weaken Iran could give it the opportunity to rearrange the region in accordance with its interests and those of its allies.

However, historical experience also indicates that military victories, if they occur, do not always translate into political stability. The possibility of the war slipping into a prolonged or multi-front conflict could turn it into a new drain on American influence, rather than a pathway to regaining hegemony.

China and the Transforming International System

In contrast, China views the Middle East from a different perspective. It is not interested in direct military engagement in the region's conflicts, but sees it as a vital space for its economic interests and energy security. Hence, Beijing might seek to capitalize on any decline in Washington's ability to manage regional balances to enhance its economic and diplomatic presence, within a broader context that reflects a gradual shift in the international system towards greater plurality in power centers.

Iran: Between the Blow and Realignment

Even if Iran suffers severe blows, it is unlikely to disappear from the power equation in the region. Iran is a state with significant geographical and human depth, possessing a vast network of tools for regional influence. Thus, weakening it militarily may lead to a shift in the conflict from direct confrontation to more complex forms of asymmetric conflicts, reshaping the maps of influence in the region instead of eliminating them.

Lebanon: Fragile Balances Amid Transformations

Lebanon remains one of the most sensitive arenas regarding the outcome of the war. If the confrontation results in a regional weakening of Iran, it is likely to reflect on the internal power balances, particularly concerning the influence of forces linked to its axis. However, the sectarian nature of the Lebanese system, coupled with its deep economic fragility, makes any sharp shift in these balances fraught with instability risks. Therefore, the most likely scenario is the continuation of Lebanon as an arena of delicate balances between multiple internal and regional forces, accompanied by renewed discussions about the future of its political system and the limits of the sectarian formula upon which the state was built.

Turkey, Europe, and Emerging Regional Axes

In this changing context, Turkey may seek to expand its maneuvering space as a regional power capable of navigating between East and West. Ankara, which combines its NATO membership with regional aspirations, may see the ongoing transformations as an opportunity to enhance its political and economic role in the Arab East. This may be accompanied by a gradual rapprochement between it and some major Sunni Arab powers. Although such an axis, if formed, will remain subject to divergences in interests and visions, it may reflect an attempt to reshape the balance of power in the region outside the traditional polarization between Iran and Israel.

As for Europe, which has appeared as a hesitant player in the Middle East in recent years, it may find itself compelled to engage more actively in managing the consequences of these transformations. For Europe, the stability of the region is directly linked to energy security, the reduction of migration waves, and the stability of its southern neighborhood.

This may push some European countries to play a more active diplomatic role in managing regional crises, and possibly in reintroducing the political track of the Palestinian issue as well, especially with the rising criticisms within European public opinion of Israeli policies.

The Arab League: Absence and Erosion

Amid these significant transformations, the Arab League seems closer to a symbolic framework than to an institution capable of managing regional crises. The deep divergences between Arab states, and the reliance of many of them on narrow bilateral or regional alliances, have greatly limited its ability to influence the ongoing transformations in the region.

A Major Regional Moment... and the Palestinian Question

The outcomes of the war on Iran may not only shape the Middle East but may also contribute to accelerating the ongoing transformations within the international system. Today, the region stands at the intersection of two overlapping conflicts: a regional struggle for influence and the reconfiguration of balances of power, and a broader global conflict regarding the shape of the international system in the twenty-first century. From this perspective, the Palestinian issue may emerge once again as one of the central knots of regional instability, especially with the growing global criticisms of Israeli policies. However, such a possibility does not materialize automatically. History shows that major international moments do not turn into political opportunities unless a national condition capable of reading and formulating a unifying project to invest in it emerges. Here arises the most pressing question: Do the Palestinians, amid deep division and erosion of their institutional legitimacy, possess the ability to address the demands of such a historical moment? Or does the scale of ongoing transformations impose, before anything else, the reconstruction of the political and social carriers of the Palestinian national project itself?

The answer to this question has become not only a Palestinian internal issue but also part of a broader equation concerning the ability of the Palestinians to turn the current changes in the world into a historic opportunity. Without restoring national capacity for political action, which requires a comprehensive rebuilding of the political system itself, these transformations may pass like previous pivotal moments in the region's history; moments that open doors to possibilities, yet remain the key question waiting for those who have the ability to capture and shape it into a "social-political" national project that propels us into the future, starting from networks and initiatives to frame various social segments and engage them in meeting their daily needs, empowering them with the ability to survive and endure, while also able to address the world without bravado or inferiority.