Israeli Elections Remain Open to All Possibilities

Benjamin Netanyahu closely follows opinion polls and gauges the pulse of the Israeli street as he has throughout his political career. He understands that his status is no longer what it was, and that his government faces a continuous erosion in light of the ongoing war, the exacerbation of internal crises, and the widening public anger over the failures of October 7, 2023. Nevertheless, Netanyahu's awareness of the scale of this decline does not necessarily mean that his political end is assured, nor that the opposition is on the verge of a guaranteed victory.

The upcoming Israeli elections, whenever they are held, will not simply be a straightforward confrontation between a failed government and an opposition ready to govern but a complex battle between forces of similar weight and influence, divided among an extreme right led by Netanyahu, a center-right, national-religious right, and the center, alongside parties that represent what remains of the so-called Zionist left. All of these are seeking to reinvent themselves with new faces, as well as central forces and military and political figures who are trying to present themselves as more balanced alternatives, such as Gadi Eisenkot and Yair Golan.

Most polls indicate a decline in the popularity of the ruling coalition, but this data does not provide the opposition with a comfortable majority or a confirmed ability to form a stable government. Personal and party divisions remain, and the struggle for leadership is still unresolved, at a time when Netanyahu retains a known ability to reshape alliances and attract new partners as the decisive moment approaches.

Therefore, what is published by the Israeli opposition press, led by Haaretz, as well as some journalists in Maariv and others reflects not confidence in an imminent victory but a desire to mobilize public opinion and warn that the crisis has transcended Netanyahu himself to affect the very structure of the system.

In many articles and analyses, there is a growing concern that Netanyahu's recent years in power have led to an unprecedented politicization of the institutions of the occupation state, including security agencies, police, judiciary, media, and civil service. Some Israeli voices argue that the "deep state" is not the one attacked by the right but the officials who have harnessed the institutions of the occupation state to serve political and personal interests. Therefore, any new government will not only face the task of ousting Netanyahu electorally but a more complicated task of restoring the autonomy of institutions and regaining the trust of the Israeli public in them.

Netanyahu knows that the results of the next elections will determine not only his political future but also his judicial fate. Thus, he is weighing between the option of continuing to fight until the end and the option of reaching a legal settlement that may allow him to withdraw from political life on better terms. However, making such a decision depends on a crucial factor: how convinced he is that his chances of forming the next government have become limited. If he confirms that the balance of power is no longer in his favor, he may prefer an orderly exit rather than face a resounding electoral defeat.

Despite the intensity of the political discourse, most of the competition is occurring within the very spectrum of Zionism. The opposition, including figures like Eisenkot and Yair Golan, does not present a radical overhaul in policies but seeks a more disciplined and less confrontational management and to reconstruct state institutions weakened by Netanyahu's governments. Therefore, the upcoming elections will not only determine who will sit in the Prime Minister's office but will also determine whether the occupation state can correct the imbalances that have accumulated over the past years or continue on the path of concentrating power and politicizing state institutions.

The primary bet among wide segments of the Israeli opposition is that the elections represent the last opportunity to halt political and institutional deterioration. However, this bet is not without doubts, whether due to the uncertainty of the opposition's victory or questions about how prepared its leaders are to make radical decisions regarding those officials associated with Netanyahu's project. Hence, the real question posed by the Israeli discourse today is not whether Netanyahu will lose power, but whether the occupation state has the will and ability to reform the system that he reshaped during his long years in power.

In the end, the occupation state seems to be facing decisive elections, but the results remain open to all possibilities. Between Netanyahu, who monitors the polls and seeks to secure a minimal exit, and an opposition that advances without guarantees, the Israeli scene remains a hostage to a struggle that is still unresolved, not only over power but over the very nature of the political system itself and the future of its institutions.