Israeli Estimates: Mojtaba Khamenei is in Iran and continues to issue instructions

SadaNews - Israeli security estimates have suggested that Iran's Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is still alive and inside Iran, despite being injured in the opening strike of the war, and he continues to issue directives and participate in managing state affairs, although not fully controlling the ruling system.

According to what was reported by the website of the newspaper "Yedioth Ahronoth" (Ynet) on Monday, these estimates contradict reports broadcasted by a Saudi channel, citing an "Israeli security source," which claimed that Khamenei is not in Iran, and that leaders in the Revolutionary Guard are formulating the messages and instructions attributed to him.

The report noted that no official Israeli entity has confirmed the narrative of Khamenei being outside Iran, while Israeli security officials familiar with the file indicated that the available information suggests he is alive and within the country.

One official stated that Khamenei is "injured, but alive, and continues to issue instructions, and in Iran they are still waiting for his stance and directives."

Khamenei has not appeared publicly since he was the target of an assassination attempt during the opening strike of the Israeli-American war on Iran, in which his father, former Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, was killed, while his messages to the public have been limited to written statements.

The report mentioned that Khamenei sustained injuries in the strike and has since moved to a secret location, while reports indicated he suffered severe burns on his face. It added that he issued a written statement in recent days "in an attempt to calm the situation inside Iran concurrent with his father's funeral, but hardline supporters demanded to see him or hear his voice, which did not happen."

The "New York Times" reported about two weeks ago that his absence from public view has raised questions within Iran about who is actually managing the state.

However, an Israeli security official considered that Khamenei's disappearance does not necessarily mean he has lost control, suggesting it is primarily related to fears of a new Israeli assassination attempt.

The official stated, "The man is not in complete condition. He is moving in a way that makes access to him extremely difficult, and among the goals is to keep his whereabouts concealed."

Another senior Israeli official said, "Mojtaba is in Iran. He is injured and a very weak figure managed by Ahmad Vahidi. They deliberately create a state of ambiguity around him, but the truth is that Vahidi writes everything for him. He is not actually an important figure."

Reports have attributed to the commander of the Revolutionary Guard, Ahmad Vahidi, and other leaders in the military apparatus, an increasing role in formulating the instructions and messages attributed to the new Iranian leader, amid his continued absence from the public scene.

Israeli security officials believe that the Iranian regime intentionally conceals Khamenei's location for security reasons, but they acknowledge that his ongoing absence and lack of public appearance present an image of weakened leadership and absence at a sensitive phase.

They view Khamenei's non-participation in his father's funeral as an exceptional event, indicating a real problem at the top of the Iranian regime, even if the motives for his absence are tied to security considerations and fears of being targeted.

Israeli National Security Research Institute researcher Beny Sabti stated that Khamenei is still involved in decision-making, but his ability to impose it is limited.

Sabti added, "He is not like his father, who was always the balance between the hardline and moderate groups. Although he mentally performs his duties and issues orders, he is largely incapacitated by the Revolutionary Guards. There is a distance between issuing his instructions and fully executing them and taking what he says seriously."

These estimates align with impressions among Israeli officials that Khamenei still represents the official address for decisions, but the influence of the Revolutionary Guards in the decision-making process has significantly increased since he took office.

In a related context, the Russian news agency "TASS" reported from an Iranian source that Khamenei's first international contact could be with Russian President Vladimir Putin, indicating a possible phone call or meeting between them soon.

The Iranian source reiterated, according to the report, that Khamenei does not appear publicly "due to the military situation and security considerations." The report noted that having a first contact with Putin would reflect the importance Tehran places on its strategic alliance with Moscow during the leadership transition and the ongoing war.

Conversely, Israeli security agencies are avoiding drawing definitive conclusions about Khamenei's status, amid estimates that the claim of his presence outside Iran might be part of a "trial balloon" or the media war between the parties.

However, the prevailing estimate in Israel, according to the report, is that Khamenei is alive and present inside Iran, continuing to participate in decision-making under strict security constraints, while the influence of the Revolutionary Guards is increasing at the expense of his personal authority.