A War Without Reason.. Who Really Wins and Who Pays the Price?

Amid the rapidly escalating situation in the Middle East, the scene appears complex at first glance and filled with political and military justifications. However, when we break down the picture, a much simpler equation becomes clear: there are those who benefit and those who pay the price, and the difference between the two sides is enormous.

At the top of the beneficiaries stands Netanyahu and Trump, where war becomes an exceptional political tool for them. The escalation provides these leaders with an opportunity to rearrange the internal scene, escape from crises, corruption files, and investigation committees, and to enhance the security rhetoric that ensures the continuation of popular or political support for them. In this context, major decisions do not always stem from a long-term strategic vision as much as they reflect calculations of survival and influence.

The matter is not limited to politics alone; it extends to a broader network of beneficiaries, including economic circles associated with the arms industry and investment in crises, from the Trump family to members of the US Congress and Senate who lead companies and control global markets. Historically, wars open enormous doors for profits, whether through arms deals, reconstruction, or speculation in energy and gold markets, etc. Here, human suffering turns into numbers in budgets, and chaos becomes fertile ground for narrow interests.

In the context of the rapid political statements from President Trump and Netanyahu, repeated positions serve the beneficiaries and do not serve America or Israel, as they announce complete control over the course of events and present a decisive image of field results, such as confirmations regarding the closure or opening of the Strait of Hormuz, major military achievements, or neutralizing first-level opponents. However, the field data and what happens on the ground often reflect a different picture, where indicators point to the continuation of the war in a more intense way and an exchange of strikes instead of a resolution that those statements portray. In contrast, Trump repeatedly asserts the existence of negotiation tracks or understandings under formation, while the realities indicate a lack of tangible results on the ground, reinforcing the disparity between political discourse and actual reality. Moreover, the assassinations targeting leaders in the Iranian side and Hezbollah, which Netanyahu and Trump boast about, do not end by eliminating the confronting power or weakening performance but lead to the emergence of more hardline and powerful leaders who are less amenable to dialogue, especially in the absence of personalities with experience in managing negotiations and conflicts and crafting balanced settlements. This, in turn, contributes to complicating the scene and prolonging the war instead of ending it.

In contrast, the losers stand on the other side of the equation, the overwhelming majority, entire populations find themselves at the heart of conflicts over which they have no control, from civilians in conflict zones to communities that are indirectly affected.

In Israel itself, the population is paying an escalating price, whether through death by rockets or bullets, living in shelters, migrating back to their original homelands, experiencing economic pressure, companies leaving, human resource depletion, or the constant anxiety that accompanies daily life in the midst of ongoing wars. Meanwhile, in Iran and Lebanon, the scene is harsher, as innocent civilians bear the burden of escalation through American-Israeli bombings of schools and hospitals, killing children and innocents mercilessly, without humanitarian or legal restraint, in addition to economic deterioration, rising prices, and shortages of energy, food, and water resources, and sometimes even their complete disappearance, alongside immediate security risks.

The circle of loss widens to encompass the entire world, as wars do not remain confined geographically but extend their effects to the global economy after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the bombing of energy sources and oil wells in Iran, the Gulf, and Israel, through disruption and manipulation in energy markets and rising prices, leading to increased inflation and diminished purchasing power for millions of people worldwide. Moreover, humanitarian crises escalate with rising rates of displacement, expulsion, and poverty, creating a fragile reality that extends its effects for generations and may lead to regional, international, or even nuclear wars that could devastate the world.

In this context, the Gulf states are among the biggest losers, as their lands have turned into open battlefields under the continued American military presence and bases that put them at the heart of the confrontation. This reality places their sovereignty under continuous pressure and makes their oil facilities direct targets in any escalation, fundamentally threatening their economic and political stability and potentially returning them to phases of economic and security instability that would cause them to lose decades-long gains in development and political stability.

The environmental aspect cannot be overlooked, as the destruction of infrastructure and targeting energy facilities leads to long-term damage affecting human health and the environmental balance in the region and the world.

Ultimately, the picture becomes clear without complication:
the beneficiaries are a limited few, while the overwhelming majority of losers include populations, states, the global economy, and even the environment. Wars, no matter how profitable they seem to narrow segments, leave an enduring impact that cannot be easily contained and reshape the world towards more instability amidst narrow calculations by some parties instead of leading it towards solutions.

In the end, the real question remains:
If everyone is losing... why does the war continue?