Oil Rises Amid Expectations for Nuclear Negotiations Between Washington and Tehran

SadaNews - Oil prices rose slightly ahead of the nuclear talks between the United States and Iran, while some major Middle Eastern producers boosted their exports, amid rising fears of potential conflict in the region which creates uncertainty about future supplies.

Brent crude climbed above $71 per barrel after a two-day decline, while West Texas Intermediate rose to about $66.

An American delegation including special envoy Steve Wittekov is set to meet with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi for talks in Geneva on Thursday, while U.S. forces are amassed in the Middle East.

Awaiting the Results of Geneva Talks

Warren Patterson, head of commodity strategy at Singapore-based ING Group, said, "All eyes will be on the talks between the U.S. and Iran today, as the outcome of that meeting could determine the direction of oil prices,"

Patterson had previously estimated that crude prices include a risk premium of up to $10 per barrel. He added, "Until then, the market is likely to remain somewhat cautious."

Oil prices are under negative pressure due to widespread expectations of a global surplus this year and increasing geopolitical concerns regarding Iran. Part of this risk is reflected in the options market, where indicators still favor bullish call options, while implied volatility remains high.

U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he prefers a diplomatic solution regarding the Iranian nuclear program, but warned of consequences if no agreement is reached. The United States has imposed new sanctions on more than 30 entities supporting Iranian oil and arms sales, increasing pressure on Tehran ahead of the talks.

Increase in Middle Eastern Exports and Awaiting OPEC+ Meeting

Amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia is set to export its largest quantity of crude in nearly three years this month, while Iran has been ramping up tanker loadings in recent days. Total flows from Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE have also increased.

The market will closely monitor the results of the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for Sunday to determine the supply policy for April. Some delegates expect a modest increase in production, but an official stated that the forecasts are unclear, given the risks of conflict between the U.S. and Iran looming over the scene.