The European "Troika" Activates Mechanism to Impose International Sanctions on Iran

SadaNews - The "European Troika" (France, Britain, and Germany) has activated the "Snapback mechanism" to reimpose UN sanctions on Iran regarding its nuclear file, reinstating six sets of international sanctions on Tehran that were suspended after the signing of the nuclear agreement in 2015.

The "Troika" sent an official message to the Security Council, stating that the three countries "wish to inform the Security Council that, based on practical evidence, the Troika group believes that Iran is not respecting its commitments" under the 2015 agreement concerning its nuclear program. In the same message to the Security Council, the "Troika" requested to activate the "Snapback mechanism."

However, the reimposition of international sanctions on Iran will not be immediate, as it requires a full month before it becomes effective. During this period, the "Troika" could reach an agreement with Tehran that resolves their differences, allowing the "Troika" to postpone the imposition of sanctions for an additional 6 months. If such an agreement is not reached, the sanctions will begin to take effect on October 18, the anniversary of the signing of the nuclear agreement ten years ago.

The joint statement of the "Troika" also indicated that "Iran's nuclear program still poses a clear threat to international peace and security."

Commitment to Diplomacy

Since Wednesday evening, leaks confirmed that the "Troika" would go ahead with its threats to activate the mentioned mechanism and that it would respect the deadline it had given to Iran until the end of August before proceeding with that. However, the failure of the Geneva meeting between the European and Iranian sides last Tuesday prompted the Europeans to shorten the timeline.

The "Troika" concluded that Tehran had not responded to either the original deadline given to it or to the proposal for a conditional extension of UN Resolution 2231, which provided international cover for the nuclear agreement and postponed the activation of the said mechanism for six months, in exchange for Tehran's cooperation in two areas: first, allowing International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors to return to Iran and enabling them to carry out their work.

Nonetheless, the European "Troika," in coordination with Washington, does not wish to cast aside diplomacy. The joint message stated that the three countries would seek to utilize the thirty-day timeframe separating them from the imposition of sanctions to address unresolved issues with Iran, which they urged to engage in constructive diplomacy to "alleviate concerns" related to its nuclear program.

Furthermore, the Troika has not abandoned the effort to persuade Tehran to accept an extension of UN Resolution 2231, which it has persistently rejected until today and has helped motivate Moscow and Beijing to propose a competing offer that does not impose harsh conditions on it.

The message from the "Troika" was echoed by their foreign ministers, emphasizing that the door for diplomacy remains open. German Foreign Minister Johan Wadephol stated that the activation of "Snapback" could represent "the beginning of a new phase" in negotiations with Iran, urging it to engage in "full cooperation" with the International Atomic Energy Agency and to participate "clearly" in direct negotiations with the United States, which are the conditions imposed by the "Troika" for extending the application of Resolution 2231.

In a related context, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Baro tweeted on the "X" platform that the activation "does not mean the end of diplomacy; we are committed to taking advantage of the thirty-day period that opens the door for dialogue with Iran." Baro explained that resorting to the mentioned mechanism reflects the commitment to "prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and that nuclear escalation should not proceed."

Iranian Response

The Iranian reaction to the European initiative was swift, as the Foreign Ministry hurried to deem what the "Troika" has done as "invalid and lacking legal effect." The ministry's statement indicated that the European decision "could undermine cooperation between Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency," describing the measure as "provocative and unnecessary escalation."

On the other hand, the "Tehran Times" reported Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi as saying that his country would respond to the "illegal and unjust" actions resulting from the "Troika" initiative. Araghchi called on the three European nations to correct the mistake they made by activating the "Snapback mechanism."

The Iranian minister had previously stated that the European powers had no legal, political, or technical authority to activate the "Snapback mechanism" and that they were only prepared to engage in indirect negotiations with the United States regarding the nuclear file "from a position of equality."

However, what was conveyed by the "Reuters" agency from a so-called "senior" Iranian official reflects a kind of fluctuation in positions. The mentioned source views that the door for diplomacy has not closed, and that Tehran will continue it and will decide on its "reciprocal" measures. Surprisingly, he stated at the same time that the European step is considered "against diplomacy and not an opportunity for it," according to what the Europeans claim. He affirmed that his country would not concede its rights under pressure.

Araghchi has repeatedly declared that the "Troika" does not have the right to activate the "Snapback mechanism" since it has not respected the nuclear agreement. The Iranian source hinted at some options available to his country in response to the European initiative.

Iran has threatened more than once with a "harsh response" against Europe if it proceeds to activate the "Snapback mechanism." Kazem Gharib Abadi, the deputy foreign minister who headed his country’s delegation to Geneva, did not delay in warning of the repercussions. In an interview with Iranian television on Wednesday evening, Abadi pointed out that the activation "will completely affect our interaction with the International Atomic Energy Agency to the extent that it will completely stop."

He added: "We have informed the three European countries that if this happens, Europe will practically have removed itself from the diplomatic arena and dialogue with Iran," pointing out that Tehran will thereafter conduct any discussions only within the framework of the UN Security Council.

Previously, senior Iranian officials have confirmed that Tehran will expel international inspectors without hesitation and hinted at the possibility of withdrawing from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, which Iran signed in the late 1950s during the Shah's rule.

Others alluded to the possibility that their country would "change" its nuclear doctrine that prohibits the development of nuclear weapons to become a nuclear power. What concerns the West is that Iran possesses no less than 400 kilograms of enriched uranium at a 60% purity level and is capable of enhancing it to a level that would enable it to produce between 4 and 6 nuclear bombs. However, this does not mean that it will become a nuclear power, as experts estimate that it will need about two years to achieve that goal.

Six Punitive Groups

Resolution 1696 issued in 2006 is the starting point for a series of subsequent resolutions that included punitive groups. Its significance lies in its demand that Iran halt all uranium enrichment activities and that it places sanctions under Chapter VII, which means that enforcement is mandatory.

The second resolution, known as Resolution 1737 for the same year, was adopted to prevent military technology transfers to Iran and to freeze the assets of entities involved in the nuclear program and to establish a "Sanctions Committee" in the Security Council, followed by Resolution 1747 at the beginning of 2007, which expands the freezing of assets and prevents those implicated in the nuclear program from traveling, as well as depriving Tehran of the ability to import or export weapons.

After a full year, Resolution 1803 was issued imposing strict oversight on Iranian financial institutions, particularly on ships entering or exiting Iranian ports, as well as depriving many individuals of visas that enable them to travel abroad. In September 2008, Resolution 1835 was issued, reinforcing the sanctions included in the previous resolution and condemning Iran for continuing uranium enrichment and prohibiting it from developing ballistic weapons.

The most recent resolution, Resolution 1929, was issued in June 2010 and again called for a ban on arms exports to Iran and tightening financial oversight as well as increased scrutiny on ships and expanding the list of individuals and entities subjected to sanctions.

All of these sanctions were "suspended" thanks to Resolution 2231 issued on July 20, 2015, which stipulated three main things: endorsing the nuclear agreement, gradually lifting sanctions if Iran respects its commitments, and finally introducing the "Snapback mechanism" in case Iran blatantly violates the agreement.

The Decline of the Iranian Currency

It is clear from the above that the reinstatement of these sanctions will be severely detrimental to the Iranian economy, especially since it will place it in a state of isolation and prevent it from officially marketing its oil, which is its primary source of revenue. China alone buys approximately 1.5 million barrels of oil from Iran daily.

This is the main source of concern for Iran regarding this mechanism which reverses it ten years back. A study released by the New York-based "Sofian Center" on Thursday stated: "The United States and its European partners view the activation of the automatic return mechanism as a means to keep Iran strategically weak and unable to rebuild its nuclear program, which has been harmed by American and Israeli strikes last June."

Iranian leaders regard the reinstatement of sanctions as a Western attempt to indefinitely weaken the Iranian economy, possibly provoking enough public unrest to overthrow the Iranian regime.

The first indications appeared with the decline in the value of the Iranian rial against foreign currencies, where the value of one US dollar exceeded one million Iranian rials.

The Iranian rial approached its lowest levels ever on Thursday amid rising fears of the consequences of reinstating UN sanctions on Iran, which will further pressure an already struggling economy. Notably, during the negotiation for the 2015 nuclear deal, the value of the rial was 32,000 against the dollar, highlighting the severe collapse of the currency since then. It is worth mentioning that the rial hit its lowest point last April when it recorded one million and 43 thousand against the US dollar.