The War Against Iran and the Reordering of the International System

A journalist and writer specializing in international affairs, and a researcher in issues of justice and armed conflicts.

The confrontation between the United States and Iran is no longer a regional issue confined to the borders of the Middle East; rather, it has become part of a broader international scene being shaped by major transformations in the structure of the global system. The ongoing conflict over the Iranian nuclear program is not only about preventing a state from acquiring strategic weapons but also concerns the management of international balances and the regulation of power dynamics in a region that is considered one of the most sensitive in the world in terms of energy, security, and geopolitical issues.

From this perspective, the United States does not seem primarily concerned with overthrowing the Iranian regime as much as it is focused on preventing its transformation into a military nuclear power. Iran's possession of such capabilities would lead to a profound change in the deterrence equations in the region and would grant Iran a wider margin to influence regional files extending from the Gulf to the Eastern Mediterranean. More importantly, this development would place Israel in front of a new strategic reality, as it would be facing for the first time a regional power with a potential nuclear deterrent capability.

However, American calculations do not stop at the borders of the Middle East. Washington views nuclear proliferation as a threat to the entire international system. As the number of countries possessing military nuclear technology expands, the likelihood of strategic unrest increases, along with the risks of knowledge or sensitive materials transferring to non-state actors or cross-border armed networks. In a world already experiencing heightened tensions between major powers, any disruption in the non-proliferation regime could open the door to new arms races that are difficult to contain.

At the same time, this confrontation unfolds in an international context characterized by a decline in the unilateral dominance of the United States and the rise of other powers like China and Russia. Therefore, the Iranian file sometimes transforms into an indirect testing ground for competition among major powers. Tehran, seeking to break the imposed Western isolation, sees in the opening towards Beijing and Moscow an opportunity to alleviate economic and political pressures, while Washington interprets this as an additional signal that the Iranian issue exceeds being a regional crisis to become part of a broader conflict over the shape of the upcoming international system.

Regionally, any large-scale military confrontation with Iran will not remain confined within its borders. The network of alliances and political and military extensions related to Tehran in various arenas makes the possibility of the conflict widening a realistic prospect. This means the region could slip into a prolonged phase of instability, especially if the confrontation evolves into a multi-front conflict.

Amidst these transformations, Arab and Islamic countries appear to be more in a receiving position rather than an active participant in shaping the course of events. The lack of capacity to formulate a shared regional vision, coupled with deep political divisions, has turned the region into a battleground of competing strategies of major powers rather than a space for independent decision-making.

What is happening today around Iran cannot merely be understood as a crisis between two states; it must be seen as part of a broader process of restructuring balances in the international system. The issue concerns the future of nuclear deterrence, the position of the Middle East in the map of competition among major powers, and the extent to which regional countries can shift from conflict zones to influential parties in shaping their future.

Ultimately, the most important question remains: Will the region continue to be merely a stage for the competition of major powers, or will it eventually manage to build its own balances that make it a partner in shaping the international system instead of being just a battlefield for its manifestations?