Iran and Gulf States Between Red Lines and Rules of Engagement

SadaNews - Five days of the ongoing Iranian war have provided a close-up view of the principle of crossing red lines in launching severe strikes on regions while demonstrating a clear commitment to activating the principle of rules of engagement among the warring parties.

Human Rights Watch states that "rules of engagement are official military directives that tell military forces when, where, how, and against whom force can be used." Despite Iran's and America's adherence to the principle of rules of engagement for years, this collapsed during the 12-day war in June 2025. In the current war, a careful reading of the size and locations of the strikes unveils perceptions of what is happening on the ground.

The Lion's Share

The platform "The Star" reports that "Iran responded to U.S. and Israeli airstrikes by launching hundreds of missiles and drones against its Arab neighbors, targeting civilian infrastructure and energy in an operation aimed at disrupting the image of the Gulf as a safe and prosperous hub for travel, tourism, and finance, also disrupting the oil and gas industry, which is its fundamental pillar."

It points out that "this war was not desired by the Arab governments, which made strenuous efforts to prevent it," but Iran did not heed this, which Gulf officials described as "a crossing of all red lines indeed."

The platform conveys officials’ discussions stating that "there are attacks on infrastructure, attacks on residential areas, and the effects of these attacks are very clear. Regarding the potential response, all options are available. But we must clearly affirm that such attacks will not go unanswered, nor should they be allowed to go unanswered."

The Financial Times indicates that "Iran launched a massive number of drones and missiles at the United Arab Emirates, the dominant trade and tourism center in the Gulf." The UAE confirmed it had experienced over 1,000 attacks, which exceeds the total numbers suffered by all targeted countries combined—thus receiving the lion's share of assaults.

Interestingly, the total number of Iranian drone strikes specifically targeting Saudi Arabia is 9 near Riyadh and the city of Al-Kharj, in addition to an attack with two drones, resulting in a limited fire and minor material damage to the building. This raises questions about the possibility of specific rules of engagement between the Kingdom and Iran, compelling both sides not to intensify attacks in exchange for refraining from responding, limiting actions to defensive measures, which Riyadh has adhered to so far.

This perception leads some observers to consider undisclosed agreements that reorganize regional files like Yemen, where Saudi Arabia and Iran share common concerns on its land, suggesting a consensus on managing fronts rather than expanding them, as recent shifts indicate a move from open confrontation to a carefully managed escalation ceiling.

Clear concessions

Yemeni researcher Saleh Abu Odl, in a post on his account on the platform "X", believes that "Saudi Arabia does not possess sufficient military capabilities to confront Iran in an open war, and will continue to endure strikes as it sees this as a lower cost than retaliation. Tehran does not fear regional escalation, as it is in open confrontation with several parties. Saudi Arabia fears an Iranian defeat, aware that any escalatory reaction could threaten everything it has built over the past ten years."

He adds: "Thus, the Saudis might continue to present a narrative that the strikes faced by Riyadh are not directly from Iran, but may be attributed to armed groups in Iraq or elsewhere, fearing that escalation could undermine what Riyadh has constructed over the past decade and the concessions it has made toward Iran."

Saudi media had reported that some Iranian attacks on Saudi Arabia originated from Iraq, noting that the Kingdom is monitoring the situation. This may align with the insights mentioned by the Yemeni researcher.

In a previous post, he also stated, "There is a pivotal state that raises the banner of war against Iran, while at the same time cooperating with it and concluding security and economic agreements... This state has been subjected to a targeted strike by Iran, and prior to that, its defense minister went to Washington and made two contradictory statements: one warning against hitting Tehran, and the other calling for hitting Iran... This state is enduring crippling strikes from Iran and its arms in Yemen and Iraq, yet the media presents a narrative denying any role for Iran in targeting it," referring to Saudi Arabia.

Abu Odl confirms that "the region faces complicated calculations," but despite this, "the Houthis in Yemen are committed to not escalating in exchange for six billion U.S. dollars, potentially doubling to ten billion."

Regarding this monetary principle, a report from Reuters indicated that "Saudi Arabia is utilizing its stock of strategic political influence and infusing billions of dollars to try to assert control over Yemen after expelling the UAE in 2025."

The Yemeni researcher warns that "Saudi Arabia may have the option of granting Iranian arms the chance to redeploy in the south once again. Furthermore, Riyadh has been working since before the U.S. strike on Iran to dismantle the national resistance forces in Mokha. It seems that the Saudis have informed Brigadier General Tariq Saleh of their desire to dismantle the national resistance."