Israeli Writer Warns: Tel Aviv is Not a Regional Power and Arrogance Could Lead to Its Ruin

SadaNews: The Israeli writer Efraim Anbar warned that excessive confidence following the recent war against Iran and Hezbollah could lead Tel Aviv to make fatal strategic mistakes, stressing that Israel is not a regional power and cannot change the map of the Middle East as some politicians claim.

The writer explained in an article published by the Israeli newspaper "News 12" that the military successes achieved by Israel since October 7 - particularly in targeting Iranian nuclear facilities and weakening Hezbollah - have created delusions that Tel Aviv has risen to the level of "regional powers."

Some voices within the political and military establishment, the writer continues, have begun to speak about "changing the map of the Middle East."

Anbar likened this euphoria to what happened after the 1967 war when Israel's excessive confidence led to its defeat in 1973, noting that the source of these delusions is a mix of power intoxication, a misreading of battle results, and a misunderstanding of Israel's fundamental strategic reality.

The writer claimed that despite the blows dealt to the Iranian nuclear project and the deaths of a number of its elite scientists, Tehran has not abandoned its nuclear dream and may resume its program, even attacking Israel again if the regime remains in place.

He continued that Hezbollah, despite being weakened, is still an influential military force in Lebanon, and the political class there may not dare to disarm it, which means the threat continues.

Regarding Syria, the writer believes that the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime has given Israel an opportunity to expand its military influence in Syria and open the way toward Iran, but at the same time has opened the door for Turkey, which could create a direct friction point between Israel and Turkey on Syrian territory.

Israeli decision-makers must adopt a more realistic approach based on caution and humility, away from the delusions that portray Israel as a major regional power.

Anbar asserted that the war in Gaza has not yet ended, as a portion of the territory remains under the control of Hamas, which constitutes a "symbolic victory" for the resistance that strengthens its ambitions to exhaust Israel.

He continued that the continued detention of Israeli prisoners weakens the image of deterrence, while the performance of the Israeli army has displayed hesitation and confusion in decisively concluding the battle.

The Israeli writer warned that Gaza - not Iran or Lebanon - will ultimately determine the picture of victory or defeat, and Hamas’s continued presence in the scene poses a long-term strategic danger.

Israel is a Small State

The writer reminded that Israel is ultimately a small state, both in terms of the human resources needed for the army and economically, as it cannot rely on self-sufficiency in an economically interconnected world.

He explained that its heavy reliance on American aid makes it susceptible to political shifts in Washington.

He believes that Israel's strength is measured not only by its military and technological capabilities but also by the solidity of its internal front, referring to the deep divisions the Israeli society has witnessed in recent years.

Anbar emphasized that decision-makers in Israel should adopt a more realistic approach based on caution and humility, away from the delusions that portray Israel as a major regional power.