Will American-Iranian Understandings Open a Path to Ending the War on Gaza?

While Washington and Tehran are reaching understandings to stop the war, which may reshape regional priorities, a fundamental question emerges: Will ending the war on Gaza become part of the new stability arrangements, or will the Palestinian cause remain outside the settlement equations despite its increasing presence in global conscience?

There are increasing indicators that American-Iranian understandings surpass the nuclear file to broader security and political arrangements related to the region's future and stability. Although the details of these understandings have not yet crystallized, they raise a profoundly important question for Palestinians: Can they pave the way for ending the war on Gaza, or will they lead to a rearrangement of regional priorities without addressing the essence of the Palestinian tragedy?

From Waging War to Seeking an Exit

Throughout the past months, various parties seemed to bet on achieving additional gains before moving to the settlement phase. However, the continuation of the war, the widening humanitarian cost, and the increasing political and diplomatic pressure on Israel are all factors that pushed towards seeking an exit that stops the fighting without making any party appear completely defeated.

In this context, American-Iranian understandings may gain particular importance. Washington, which seeks to establish regional stability that allows it to focus on other international priorities, does not seem interested in keeping the region hostage to an open war that could explode at any moment. Likewise, if Iran succeeds in extracting understandings regarding sanctions or its regional status, it may find it in its interest to stabilize the ceasefire on various fronts related to it.

Thus, the possibility arises that Gaza could transform from a stalled file outside the understandings to one of the indirect beneficiaries, not because the involved parties have provided a solution to the Palestinian cause, but because ending the war may become a necessity to serve broader regional arrangements.

The Limits of Israeli Capability

However, this possibility does not mean that Israel has abandoned its objectives or changed its vision of the war. The Tel Aviv government is still striving to translate what it considers military achievements into long-term political and security realities that ensure it the greatest control over the future of the sector.

But the experience since the beginning of the war has also shown the limits of military power. Despite the enormous destruction and unprecedented humanitarian losses, Israel has been unable to impose a stable political vision for the day after.

Therefore, any ceasefire resulting from regional understandings, international pressures, or mutual exhaustion will not answer the fundamental questions concerning the future and political identity of Gaza.

The Day After the War: Deferred Questions

The cessation of combat may be closer than it has been in recent months, but ending the war does not necessarily mean ending the crisis. The real dilemma begins with the day after.

Who will govern the sector? What will be the nature of the security arrangements? Which Palestinian entity will represent Gaza to the world and at donor meetings? How can a return to a new cycle of destruction and conflict be prevented?

These questions cannot be answered by American-Iranian understandings, as they pertain primarily to the internal Palestinian situation and the nature of the Palestinian political system and the future of its national representation.

Reconstruction Between Politics and Funding

This dilemma gains double importance when discussing reconstruction. The magnitude of the destruction in Gaza far exceeds what was witnessed in previous wars, meaning that the reconstruction process will require enormous financial resources and long-term Arab and international commitment.

However, Arab countries and donor entities do not seem ready to finance a new cycle of reconstruction in the absence of a clear political vision or a unified Palestinian reference capable of managing the process efficiently and transparently.

Thus, the question is no longer just about the volume of funds required, but about the existence of a stable political environment that ensures that reconstruction turns into a project for life and stability, rather than a temporary stop before a new round of destruction.

The Palestinian Predicament

While the Palestinian cause is witnessing unprecedented expansion in global sympathy and support, Palestinians are facing one of their deepest internal crises. The ongoing division, the multiplicity of decision-making centers, and the erosion of the legitimacy of national institutions are all factors that limit the ability to capitalize on ongoing transformations in the international arena.

Here, there is a special responsibility on both the Palestinian Authority and Hamas. The Authority is required to renew its legitimacy and rebuild its institutions on the foundations of partnership and representation far from hegemony and exclusion, while Hamas is required to conduct deep political reviews that open the door for true national partnership that transcends the logic of domination. Without restoring national unity, Palestinians will remain the weakest link in any upcoming regional arrangements, regardless of the extent of international sympathy for their cause.

Between Regional Calm and Continued Occupation

Even if American-Iranian understandings succeed in reducing regional tensions and ending the war on Gaza, this will not change a fundamental reality that the roots of the conflict remain. The Palestinian cause is not merely a humanitarian crisis, nor just a security file that can be managed; rather, it is a matter of a people striving for freedom, self-determination, and an end to occupation. The past decades have proven that bypassing this truth or postponing it does not lead to the disappearance of the problem, but rather its return in more complex and costly forms.

Therefore, any regional stability resulting from the new understandings will remain fragile unless accompanied by a serious political pathway that addresses Palestinian national rights and puts an end to the continuation of occupation, settlement, and policies of fait accompli.

Restoring National Initiative

However, the decisive factor in the future phase will not be solely based on what is agreed upon between Washington and Tehran, nor on the limits of Israeli power or international pressures, but rather on the Palestinians' own ability to regain the initiative.

Real breakthroughs begin with rebuilding the Palestinian political system on the foundations of partnership, democracy, and representation, agreeing on a comprehensive program that balances between national constants and the requirements of the phase, and making the protection of the Palestinian existence and steadfastness a central priority.

In this context, especially given the internal and external challenges facing the national committee managing the sector, there is an urgent need to form a non-factional national consensus government that has a political mandate from all Palestinians, enabling it to act as a transitional reference overseeing the management of sector affairs, relief, and reconstruction efforts, and preparing the conditions to address the internal Palestinian predicament. Its primary mission should be to unify Palestinian institutions and pave the way for general elections, presidential and legislative, as the main entry point for renewing the political system and restoring unity in Palestinian representation and decision-making, cutting off the road for Tel Aviv to fragment national identity.

American-Iranian understandings may contribute to opening a window towards ending the war, and may help prevent the region from slipping into a broader confrontation, but they will not be able alone to shape the future of Gaza or resolve the Palestinian cause. That will remain linked, above all else, to Palestinians’ ability to transform the resilience and sacrifices of their people and the increasing moral and political presence of their cause in the world into a united national project capable of asserting itself as a partner in shaping the future, rather than just a subject of others' decisions.

While regional understandings may open the door to ending the war, what will determine the shape of the next phase is whether Palestinians can cross this door united, or whether they will enter it still imprisoned by the division and crisis that have accompanied them throughout the past years, impeding their ability to transform the sacrifices of their people into sustainable political and national achievements.