The Israeli Political Scene in Election Year

The Israeli Knesset concluded its winter session at the end of last month (March), having succeeded in passing the general budget for 2026, in accordance with the law that stipulates it must be passed within a legal deadline that does not exceed March 31 of each year. Failure to do so would automatically dissolve the Knesset and lead to new elections. Thus, it ensured that the Israeli general elections would take place on schedule at the end of October, for the first time in nearly four decades.

This development confirms that the coalition of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's current government is remarkably cohesive. It must also be added that the overall political and party scene in Israel remains critically influenced by the ramifications of the war on the Gaza Strip and its extensions on other fronts, even after ceasefire agreements. The state of war, which escalated through aggressive actions against Iran in conjunction with the United States and renewed intense conflict in Lebanon, continues to be the most significant factor shaping Israeli political and party life, and the central determinant of government and opposition alignments, as well as the parameters of public debate and the limits of disagreement within the political system.

Despite Israeli opposition parties criticizing the government, these criticisms mostly remain confined to the level of war management, its performance, and its costs, without indicating a stance opposing the war itself or suggesting diplomatic settlements. Moreover, the Israeli government has yet to propose any political plan for what is dubbed the "day after" the war on the Gaza Strip, reflecting its adherence to the option of military force, not only as a military and security tool against the Gaza Strip but also as an internal political mechanism tied to the structure of the ruling coalition and the personal survival calculations of the Prime Minister.

What should be noted as the year of general elections in Israel begins: Most political and party estimates in Israel are largely suspended on the current term of U.S. President Donald Trump, with widespread expectations among Israeli right-wing circles that this administration will provide greater opportunities to push forward its agendas, particularly concerning Iran and the West Bank. Clear bets have been placed on the potential to leverage the shift in Washington to advance the Israeli right's projects, foremost among them the project to annex the West Bank.

In contrast, opposing Israeli estimates affirm that Trump's method of intervening in the trajectory to halt the war in Gaza, and the pressures he exerted on various parties, including Netanyahu, may reveal that Israeli expectations from the new U.S. administration may not be as open as the right-wing had hoped, and that the close relationship with Washington does not necessarily grant Israel unlimited authorization to manage its regional policies and concerning the Palestinian issue without constraints or calculations.

Additionally, the developments resulting from the ongoing war since "October 7" (2023) represent an additional milestone in the entrenchment of the right, transforming it into the dominant force under which most political actors in Israel operate. It is not an exaggeration to say that the Israeli party division does not essentially revolve around two opposing projects, but rather occurs within a political space largely governed by the ceiling of the right and its political and ideological priorities.

This shift is not only related to the "Al-Aqsa Flood" and the war that followed it and its repercussions, but also relies on accumulated social and demographic variables that appear to have contributed to the reproduction of a right-wing power balance that is difficult to disrupt electorally. This means, primarily, that the upcoming Israeli elections, expected to take place in the fall of 2026, will not be a showdown between the right and its opponents, but rather a form of internal conflict beneath its banner, between the extreme right stream led by Netanyahu and a right-center stream currently led by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, whose leaders primarily unite around opposing Netanyahu more than around any alternative political or ideological project.