Demographic Changes Transform the Face of Israel

Many researchers and those interested in Israeli affairs observe that the Jewish state is changing its face, and this change is the result of profound transformations in the structure of Israeli society and its social and demographic composition, characterized by the rise of easterners, haredim, and religious Zionist groups, against the backdrop of a decline in the power of those of European descent, the "Ashkenazim," who founded the state and established its liberal values while they are now struggling in vain to maintain this character.

Although it seems that the attacks on October 7 and the subsequent multi-front war that lasted more than two years and included a continued genocide in Gaza, prominently featured pilots who had threatened during the events known as the "judicial revolution" to refuse military service in protest, has mended this deep Israeli rift, the success of the right-wing government composed of these aforementioned groups in leveraging the outcomes (the attacks and the war) to reinforce these transformations and overturn the deep state institutions reveals not only the depth of the crisis but also the future direction of Israel.

In this context, the results of a survey conducted by the Israeli Democracy Institute indicate that 39% of secular Jews are generally contemplating emigration from Israel, while this percentage drops to only 34% among secular right-wingers. The Israeli public identified security conditions (65%) and distrust in the political system (57%) as legitimate reasons for emigration from Israel.

On the ground, data from the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics revealed that the year 2024 recorded a negative migration balance among academics in particular, where the number of academics holding at least a bachelor’s degree who moved to live abroad exceeded those who returned to the country, with the results indicating that the emigrants are educated youths from wealthy cities and settlements, especially from the Sharon and Tel Aviv areas.

The data that characterized the period of the war and the "judicial coup" essentially reflect a growing trend, showing that 25% of those holding a doctorate in mathematics and nearly 20% of those with a third degree in computer science, and between 14-20% of other scientific fields who completed post-doctorate studies are living abroad today, with this trend escalating after the year 2023.

Conversely, an examination of other data related to settlement that has been discussed in the Israeli media recently indicates that the percentage of haredi Jews among the total settlers in the West Bank, excluding Jerusalem, reached 38% by the end of September of this year, equating to 197,397 settlers out of a total of 517,319 settlers, comprising approximately 20% of the haredim in Israel, represented by 18 members in the Knesset.

If the haredim represent the main demographic driver of settlement, with Jerusalem comprising nearly half of their population, they, along with the hardline religious Zionism movement, which is the backbone of settlement and constitutes 35% of the settlers and is represented by 14 members in the Knesset, together form the numerical majority of settlers, while their four parties are considered the main pillars upon which the government of Netanyahu, leader of the Likud party, rests, as he struggles with eastern affiliations and religious settlement tendencies after losing its historical character as a liberal right-wing party.

Therefore, the victory of the aforementioned coalition of easterners, haredim, and religious Zionist groups, resulting from the demographic transformations occurring in Israel, is likely to change the character and face of Israel, coloring it in a fundamentalist religious hue, which will push secularists and liberals not only to the margins but also abroad.