Ceasefire Agreement in Gaza: Between Cautious Calm and Challenges of the Next Day

Author: براء المحسيري

 After long months of bloody war on the beloved land of Gaza, which obliterated people and turned stone to dust, an agreement was announced for a ceasefire between the Israeli occupation and Hamas, mediated by Egypt and Qatar, with Turkish efforts and American sponsorship.  This agreement came after intense, marathon-like international pressures and amid a catastrophic humanitarian situation in the besieged Gaza Strip.  With its implementation, Gaza breathed a sigh of relief, but the reality on the ground is more complex than it appears to the viewer; amidst the rubble and debris and the smell of blood, there is a scene where the features of joy in survival are mixed with major questions about the future.
The First Stage: Silence is Dominant
With the first moments of entering the ceasefire into effect to implement the truce, an unusual calm settled over the Gaza Strip, one that our people were not accustomed to.  The sounds of shelling and explosions ceased, and Israeli forces began their gradual withdrawal from some areas within Gaza to the outskirts of the cities as a first phase of implementing the agreement, especially in the center and south.  For its part, Hamas announced its commitment to the agreement, but at the same time emphasized that "a ceasefire does not mean the end of resistance."  On the Israeli side, an atmosphere of anticipation and caution prevailed, as the military leadership kept its forces on standby in case of any breach from the Palestinian side, according to the announcement from the occupation army.
The Issue of Prisoners and Kidnapped: The Core of the Agreement and Measure of Success in 72 Hours
The prisoner exchange process is considered one of the most prominent points of the agreement, which will take place under international supervision and the cover of the Red Cross quietly without any ceremonies or scenes as we were accustomed to in the past.  According to what was agreed upon, Hamas will release the kidnapped Israelis in exchange for batches of Palestinian prisoners. It is noteworthy that the deal had a humanitarian aspect, but at its core, it was a deep political step played upon by U.S. President Donald Trump and European mediators as a way to align with the popular pressures faced by their governments over the past months.
Opening Crossings... The Lifeline
According to what was announced in the initial phase of the ceasefire agreement, 5 crossings will be opened towards the Gaza Strip, including the Rafah crossing towards Egypt, allowing a minimum of 400 trucks daily to enter, including food, fuel, and medical supplies. United Nations teams and the Red Crescent began distributing aid to the devastated neighborhoods. However, the scale of the disaster exceeds all capacities. According to the United Nations announcement, there are 170,000 tons of various types of aid awaiting Israeli coordination for urgent entry into the Gaza Strip to help meet the needs of the starving people of Gaza and support Gaza's hospitals with their requirements.
Who Will Rule Gaza? What We Don't Know About the Gaza Agreement
Perhaps the most dangerous aspect not included in the agreement is the details of the next phase, which is a crucial stage no less important than the previous one, but it will be subject to subsequent negotiations, highlighting the political vacuum facing the Gaza Strip currently.  As the military power of Hamas declines and the structure of civilian governance erodes, the discussion of "the day after the war" has returned. The United States and the European Union are pushing for a transitional civilian (technocratic) administration, while the U.S. President's announcement linked the Palestinian Authority's assumption of power in the Gaza Strip to a series of reforms that have long been referenced in various positions.  For its part, Hamas affirmed its rejection of marginalization, stating that it is part of any forthcoming political solution.
Reconstruction: A Long Road Fraught with Tensions
Preliminary estimates indicate that 80% of Gaza's infrastructure is completely destroyed, and the priority today after humanitarian aid is the plan for removing rubble, knowing that United Nations and World Bank reports estimated the cost of reconstructing Gaza to exceed $52 billion. International conferences for financial mobilization have begun preparations in Cairo and Doha, but financing is connected to political and security conditions.
It is worth mentioning that we are currently in the best time for an international mobilization to force Israel to pay reparations to the people of Gaza, just as the international community forced Germany to pay reparations to the Jews.
The Regional and International Dimension: Overlapping Interests and Balance of Roles
It seems that Egypt has regained its position as a key mediator in the Palestinian file, while Qatar has played a pivotal role in the ceasefire and securing financial and humanitarian support. The United States has considered the agreement a "turning point," but has not yet provided a clear plan for the next phase, as it still uses its regional tools to impose its policy in protecting the state of occupation.
In conclusion: Temporary Peace Awaiting a Permanent Solution
What has been reached with the ceasefire agreement is a mere redeployment so far and an attempt to avoid direct contact to solidify the agreement and give a chance to address the humanitarian situation in the sector. Here, we point out that the current truce does not mean the end of two years of war, but rather the beginning of a new battle to determine Gaza's future. Amidst the ruins of destroyed cities, the outlines of a sensitive transitional phase are being written, in which the shape of authority and the pattern of reconstruction will be determined.