Iran War: Three Possible Scenarios for the End of a Conflict that Confuses the World

SadaNews - After 17 days since the outbreak of war between the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other, the biggest question in Washington and global markets remains: When will this conflict end?

The American magazine Newsweek and the British magazine Economist analyzed this topic, with Newsweek outlining three potential scenarios for the end of the conflict, while Economist noted that President Donald Trump was unprepared for the practical challenges of the war's course.

Newsweek pointed out that Trump expected the war to last from 4 to 5 weeks, but later indicated that American objectives have largely been achieved, with the possibility of the conflict continuing for a longer period.

Linked to the President

The U.S. Department of Defense confirmed that the final timeline for ending the war is linked solely to the President, while Trump's repeated statements about early victory contrast with the ongoing Iranian missile and drone attacks.

Newsweek clarified that the battle is centered around the Strait of Hormuz, the vital maritime passage through which about a fifth of global oil exports pass, making control over it the focal point of the conflict.

It mentioned Trump's attempt to build an international coalition to reopen the strait, targeting Britain, France, Japan, South Korea, and China; however, the European response has been cautious, demanding more clarity about Washington's goals before committing to send warships.

In this context, Newsweek identified three potential scenarios for the end of the war:

Short War and Rapid U.S. Withdrawal

The first scenario, preferred by the U.S. administration according to Newsweek, involves a short and decisive military campaign, followed by a declaration of victory.

U.S. and Israeli forces have executed waves of airstrikes on Iran, targeting missile bases, maritime facilities, and military infrastructure, including sites linked to Khark Island, Iran's main oil export hub.

If these strikes succeed in undermining Iran's ability to threaten maritime shipping and its regional allies, Trump could claim that war objectives have been partially achieved, beginning to scale back operations within weeks, possibly by early April, according to his initial assessment.

More Complicated

However, reopening the strait, as the paper sees it, is more complicated than mere airstrikes. Iran possesses naval mines, drones, and missile systems that can threaten vessels in the narrow passage, and neutralizing these threats may require ongoing maritime patrols and international cooperation, which is precisely what Trump has been trying to encourage allies to join him in.

Newsweek stated that Goldman Sachs analyses warn that a 90% reduction in oil flow through the strait could lead to record-high oil prices if disruption continues.

Negotiated Ceasefire

The second scenario, according to Newsweek, relies on diplomacy rather than military victory. Despite the intense strikes, Iran maintains its capability to disrupt global energy supplies, giving it a strategic leverage card.

It noted that this Iranian leverage over the Strait of Hormuz may prompt external powers, including Europe and China, to encourage negotiations to stabilize shipping routes and reduce the risk of a broader war.

If diplomatic pressure escalates, the war could end with a fragile ceasefire within several months, allowing each side to withdraw while claiming partial success.

Long Regional Conflict

The third scenario: the most dangerous one, as emphasized by both Newsweek and Economist, involves the conflict turning into a long regional confrontation.

The paper and the magazine reported that Iran continued its attacks on Gulf states and Israeli targets, and the conflict has already spread beyond its borders, raising fears of a wider war in the Middle East.

In this scenario, fighting could continue for months or even longer, especially if Washington expands its objectives to include crippling Iran's energy infrastructure or destabilizing the regime.

Domestic U.S. politics, as midterm elections approach, may also influence the course of the war, while Trump's conflicting statements about victory have created uncertainty regarding the administration's strategy.

Not Ready

Economist views that Trump was not prepared for the practical challenges of reopening the strait. The minesweeping ships were withdrawn in January, and the remaining resources were not employed in actual combat operations, meaning any large-scale mine removal operation could take months. Even protecting vessels from drones and missiles from the Iranian coast is not easy.

If Trump is unable to reopen the strait by force, he may resort to intensifying strikes on Iran's oil infrastructure, which could raise global oil prices and benefit Russia in terms of energy export revenues.

Economist's analysis also indicates that there is a double war: strategically militarily, America and Israel are trying to destroy Iranian military sites, while economically, Iran is disrupting normal life in Gulf states and threatening the global economy, complicating control over the strait, which increases the likelihood of the war exceeding the timeline initially set by Trump.

The magazine and the paper conclude that the United States and Israel face a strategic dilemma, and the scenario closest to quickly achieving Washington's goals is a short war and early withdrawal, but it faces real challenges in the Strait of Hormuz.