Analyses: Gulf States Pressure America to Neutralize Iran... Between Restraining Tehran and Slipping into a Comprehensive Confrontation

SadaNews - The Arab Gulf states did not ask the United States to engage in war against Iran, but many of them are currently urging it not to stop short of leaving Tehran capable of threatening the Strait of Hormuz, which is a lifeline for Gulf oil and the economies dependent on it.

This was reported by Reuters today, Tuesday, citing three Gulf sources. At the same time, the sources and five Western and Arab diplomats said that Washington is pressuring Gulf states to join the American-Israeli war.

According to three of them, U.S. President Donald Trump wants to show regional support for the campaign to enhance its international legitimacy, as well as support it domestically.

Abdul Aziz Saqr, head of the Gulf Research Center based in Saudi Arabia, who is familiar with the authorities' thinking according to the report, said, "There is a widespread feeling across the Gulf that Iran has crossed all the red lines with every Gulf state."

He added, "Initially we defended them and opposed the war. But once they started directing strikes against us, they became an enemy. There is no other way to classify them."

Tehran has indeed demonstrated its capability to target objectives, having attacked airports, ports, oil facilities, and commercial centers in the six Gulf countries with missiles and drones, while disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about a fifth of the world's oil and supports Gulf economies.

The attacks have heightened Gulf states' fears that allowing Iran to possess any powerful offensive weapons or significant weapon manufacturing capabilities could encourage it to hold the region's energy lifeline hostage whenever tensions escalate.

As the war enters its third week, with intensified American and Israeli airstrikes, and Iran's bombardment of American bases and civilian targets throughout the Gulf, a Gulf source said the prevailing opinion among leaders is clear: Trump must comprehensively weaken Iranian military capabilities.

The source noted that the alternative is to live under a constant threat. He added that unless Iran is significantly weakened, it will continue to extort the region.

If Washington withdraws, "we will be left to confront Iran alone"

Iran, which has a Shiite majority, has long looked upon its Arab Sunni neighbors in the Gulf—who are close allies of the United States and host American military bases—with deep suspicion, although relations with Qatar and Oman are generally less tense.

Over the years, Iran and its allies in the region have been accused of attacking energy facilities in the Gulf, notably the 2019 attack on the oil facilities in Abqaiq and Khurais in Saudi Arabia, for which Iran denied responsibility, and which halved Saudi production and disrupted energy markets.

For Gulf leaders, the greatest danger now is failing to complete the mission.

The impact of Iranian attacks this month far exceeds material damages; it does not only disrupt oil flow but also harms the hard-won image of stability and security that has supported Gulf states' efforts to expand trade and tourism and reduce dependency on fossil fuel exports.

Saqr stated, "If the Americans withdraw before completing the mission, we will be left to confront Iran alone."

Gulf Fears of a Broader War

In response to questions about these concerns, the White House stated that the United States is "eliminating (Iran’s) capacity to launch these weapons or produce more of them," and that Trump is "in close contact with our partners in the Middle East."

Among Gulf states, only the UAE has responded. It stated that it is not seeking to be drawn into any conflicts or escalation, but affirmed its right to "take all necessary measures to protect its sovereignty and national security and the safety of its territory and to ensure the safety and security of its citizens and residents on its land."

Sources in the region noted that unilateral military action by any Gulf state is still off the table, as collective intervention would prevent a state from facing Iranian retaliation alone.

Furthermore, reaching a consensus remains a distant goal; the six member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council—Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman, and the UAE—held only one call via Zoom, and no Arab summit has been convened to discuss coordinated actions.

Gulf leaders remain deeply fearful of igniting a broader war that could spiral out of control.

Last week, U.S. Security Secretary Pete Hegseth stated that Gulf partners are "intensifying their efforts" and are prepared to "launch an attack," while they are already working with Washington on integrated collective air defenses, but did not specify what else they might do.

A high-ranking Emirati official stated that his country chose restraint after Iran claimed that the U.S. military used the UAE to launch an attack on Kharg Island, which hosts Iran's main oil export terminal.

However, Saqr remarked that Saudi Arabia, Iran’s main regional rival for influence, may have to respond if Iran crosses red lines, particularly by launching strikes on key oil facilities, desalination plants, or causing casualties and injuries.

He added, "In that case, Saudi Arabia would have no choice but to intervene."

He mentioned that Riyadh would nonetheless attempt to manage any reaction to avoid further escalation.

The Strategic Dilemma and Long-term "Risk"

Fawaz Gerges from the London School of Economics indicated that the Arab Gulf states inherently face a strategic dilemma of balancing between the immediate threat of Iranian attacks and the much greater risk of being drawn into a war led by the U.S. and Israel.

He added that joining this war would not add much to Washington's military superiority while sharply increasing the likelihood of those states facing Iranian reprisals.

The result is calculated restraint, exemplified by defending sovereignty, asserting red lines without entering a war that the Gulf states did not start and cannot control.

Clearly, Iran's power is evident; it effectively determines which vessels are allowed to pass through the strait, a point that no state in the region accepts.

Bernard Haykel, a professor of Middle Eastern studies at Princeton University, remarked: "Now that Iran has proven its ability to close the Strait of Hormuz, the Gulf faces a completely different danger."

He added, "If this danger is not addressed, it will be long-term."

Trump called on Sunday, with little early success, for the formation of an international coalition to help reopen the waterway.

Haykel noted that while the global economy relies on Gulf oil and gas, much of it flows east to China, Japan, and other Asian economies, meaning these nations must also share part of the responsibility.

He stated, "China has helped secure maritime routes off the coast of Somalia and may also be willing to intervene here."