American Writer Warns: Overthrowing the Iranian Regime May Open Unexpected Doors

SadaNews: American writer Thomas Friedman confirmed that the complexities characterizing the situation in the Middle East require consideration of several aspects simultaneously to attempt to dismantle and understand what is happening in the correct context.

He added in his column in the New York Times that the Middle East is an interwoven region in terms of factors like religion, politics, oil, and sometimes internal conflicts, making it difficult to adopt a clear and specific vision regarding the wars ravaging the area.

Friedman discussed several ideas in an attempt to understand the ongoing war, the first being that the attempt to overthrow the Iranian regime—described by him as "theocratic"—in Tehran could succeed, considering this regime responsible for killing and destroying a great civilization and destabilizing the region.

He continued that replacing this regime could put the Middle East on a path that is fairer and more inclusive, empowering the Iranian people to determine their own destiny, according to him.

However, Friedman emphasized that this process will not be easy, as the Iranian regime is deeply rooted and cannot be overthrown merely through airstrikes.

He exemplified this with the Gaza war, where Israel has not been able to completely eliminate Hamas despite a long duration of air and ground wars.

He added that even if American and Israeli strikes do not lead to a popular uprising in Iran as called for by President Donald Trump, they may result in unexpected outcomes such as the emergence of a new Islamic Republic that poses less of a threat to its neighbors.

However, he clarifies that what is occurring can lead to a counterproductive result, as it can easily lead to unforeseen dangers, such as the disintegration of Iran as a single geographic entity.

Friedman asserts that the timing of the end of the war largely depends on oil markets and financial markets, more than it does on military conditions inside Iran.

On one hand, Iran is experiencing a severe economic crisis with its currency losing value, and the European economy is increasingly relying on liquefied natural gas from the Arabian Gulf.

Also, the inflation resulting from rising energy prices may anger Trump's popular base, which will affect how Trump deals with Iran.

As for the American president, he does not want to see the word "quagmire" in any headline bearing his name before the upcoming midterm elections in November, the writer explains.

Friedman warns that the war should not distract anyone from the threats to democracy and the rule of law faced by both President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

He explains this by saying that Trump is trying to promote democracy in Tehran while resorting to controversial policies in America, such as attempts to restrict voting rights, alongside what the immigration agency is doing.

Friedman also sees that the war could be politically advantageous for Netanyahu, who might use the fall of the Iranian regime to strengthen his power and achieve his political goals.

But it would be a partial benefit—the writer continues—he previously achieved short-term military victories against Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah, and Iran, but did not translate any of them into lasting diplomatic or political gains.

To do this—Friedman continues—he will need to agree to negotiate again with the Palestinians based on a two-state solution framework for two peoples.