Congress Report: Transfer of Submarines to Australia Could Weaken the US Navy

SadaNews - A revised report issued by the US Congressional Research Service warned that the plan to sell between 3 to 5 nuclear submarines to Australia could weaken the capabilities of the US Navy until the late 2040s.

The Wall Street Journal previously reported that the Pentagon plans to deploy 4 nuclear submarines at the expanding Stirling base in Western Australia, as part of an allied strategy to contain China. The first submarine is expected to dock there in 2027.

According to the US Congressional Research Service report, which was reviewed by the TASS agency, the transfer of submarines to Australia scheduled for early 2032 will reduce the size of the US submarine fleet at a time when it is already suffering from a shortage of vessels.

The report's authors noted that the reduction in fleet size would continue until the new submarines enter service, which may be delayed until the years 2040-2049, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

The report stated: "The sale of Virginia-class submarines to Australia will convert these units from ready-to-use assets in case of a crisis or conflict with China to units that may not be available for such purposes, which could weaken deterrent and combat capabilities instead of enhancing them." Experts reminded that the Australian government has not committed to supporting the United States in a potential conflict over Taiwan in exchange for receiving American technology.

The report addressed the critical situation of the US industrial base, noting that although funding for the purchase of two submarines annually has been in place since 2011, actual production rates have declined to 1.1-1.2 submarines per year since 2022, leading to significant delays in the approved timeline.

To meet its commitments to the US Navy and partners in AUKUS, a military alliance that includes Australia, the UK, and the US, the US industry must reach a production rate of 2.33 submarines per year, which it has not yet achieved.

Complicating the situation further is a massive delay in the maintenance of operational submarines. In fiscal year 2024, 34% of the US submarine fleet (16 units) was under repair or awaiting repairs, significantly exceeding the Navy's target benchmark of 20%, according to the report. This results in a reduced number of submarines available for operations and increases the workload on the operating crews.

The report also raised concerns that the transfer of submarines could deprive the US of the possibility of equipping these units with sea-launched cruise missiles (SLCM-N), given Australia's commitment, as a non-nuclear state, to use only conventional weapons. This is seen as a factor that could undermine strategic deterrence.

The trilateral AUKUS agreement was signed in 2021 during the presidency of former US President Joe Biden. Russia and China have indicated that Western nations have adopted a path toward creating an Asian counterpart to NATO.