Israel Moves Ahead of Negotiations, Redrawing New Maps of Gaza on the Ground

While attention is directed towards Cairo, where Hamas and Palestinian factions are holding new meetings with mediators, Palestinians are waiting for any signs that could lead to an agreement to end the ongoing war on the Gaza Strip and alleviate the suffering of its residents that has been escalating for more than two and a half years. However, what is happening on the ground in Gaza suggests that Israel is not waiting for the results of negotiations but is instead taking rapid steps to impose a new reality that could shape the contours and future of the Strip before arriving at any political settlement. These meetings come more than a month after the last discussions held in Cairo, which were accompanied by a wide wave of leaks and speculations regarding the potential for a political breakthrough. Nevertheless, despite the optimistic atmosphere that some parties are attempting to promote, significant gaps remain between the positions presented, particularly on issues related to the future of Gaza, the resistance's weapons, and the arrangements for governance and security following the war. Hamas insists on the necessity of implementing the obligations of the first phase of the ceasefire agreement before moving on to the second phase, while mediators seek to push for broader arrangements that simultaneously address governance, security, and reconstruction issues. Disagreements persist over the National Committee for Gaza Management, the Stability Authority, and the proposed multinational force to oversee the next phase. However, the political scene is intertwined with the rapidly evolving on-ground developments within the Strip, where the occupation forces continue to expand their military control over large areas of Gaza. Estimates indicate that Israel now effectively controls nearly 70% of the Strip's upper lands, amid ongoing bulldozing, demolition, and evacuation operations targeting various regions in the north, center, and south of the Strip. In recent days, areas in the southern Khan Younis have witnessed a new expansion of what is locally known as the "yellow zone," where new markers and concrete blocks have been set up near populated areas of tents and displacement centers. The bulldozing operations have also extended to the Shakush area and the Al-Zar'aba lands northwest of Rafah, coinciding with Israeli military movements and the presence of Merkava tanks in the vicinity of those areas. These movements are not limited to the south of the Strip; demolition and bulldozing operations continue east of Deir al-Balah, northeast of al-Bureij, and north of al-Nuseirat along sections of Salah al-Din Street, suggesting that Israel is working on redrawing the map of ground control and imposing new security boundaries that could become a long-term reality. These developments raise increasing fears of being a prelude to specific arrangements in the city of Rafah, especially with the growing talk about large housing and settlement projects being prepared in the Mawasi area. According to circulated data, infrastructure work continues on a project spanning an area of approximately 600 dunams between the UNRWA warehouses and Jamal Abdul Nasser Street, funded by the UAE and implemented by companies working in cooperation with local contractors, in preparation for receiving thousands of ready-made housing units if allowed to enter. These developments intersect with what has come to be known as the "Rafah First" initiative, a US-UAE plan aimed at launching a gradual reconstruction process in the Strip starting from Rafah. However, this initiative still faces complex political and security obstacles, amid varying visions regarding the entity that will manage the areas included in the reconstruction and settlement projects. In contrast, circulated information indicates that Israel links the implementation of any reconstruction or housing projects to specific security arrangements concerning the management and supervision of the new areas, which could pose one of the major obstacles to implementing these projects amid Palestinian rejection of any formulas that lead to militia control or solidify the occupation in new forms. Meanwhile, as these political and security discussions unfold, the humanitarian situation continues to deteriorate at an unprecedented pace. The aid that the occupation allows in covers only a limited percentage of the actual needs of the population, while Gaza requires between 600 to 1000 aid trucks daily to meet the minimum basic necessities. Additionally, part of the aid entering the Strip does not reach those in need directly, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis and increasing the suffering of residents. Humanitarian estimates indicate that food needs alone require the provision of about one million meals daily, with operational costs reaching around one million dollars per day, including food, transportation, distribution, and logistics services related to the relief process. At the same time, the occupation continues to prevent the entry of caravans and ready-made housing, despite the existence of tens of thousands of families living in tattered tents that are no longer suitable for habitation. Health and environmental crises are also worsening due to the spread of skin diseases, epidemics, insects, and rodents within the camps, alongside the continued prevention of several medical devices, medicines, and necessary supplies for hospitals, threatening the lives of thousands of patients and the injured. In light of this information, Gaza today appears stuck between two parallel paths: a political path that still faces significant obstacles preventing a comprehensive agreement and an on-ground path through which Israel is imposing new realities via control, bulldozing, and reshaping the population and urban geography of the Strip. Therefore, judging the outcomes of the Cairo meetings does not solely depend on the agreements or statements that may emerge from them, but rather on their ability to halt the rapid transformations taking place on the ground in Gaza. While mediators and factions discuss the future of the Strip, Israel continues to redraw its new maps using bulldozers, tanks, and military exclusion and control areas. The concern lies not only in the failure of negotiations but also in Israel potentially succeeding in converting the realities it imposes today into a foundation for the next phase, thereby reshaping the political and security reality in the Strip so that what it draws on the ground becomes the ceiling within which politics will later operate. The battle for Gaza's future is not only decided at the negotiation tables but also in the realities imposed on the ground day after day.