2026... Political Genocide After Humanity

It is impossible to foresee the course of 2026 without reflecting on the heavy conclusion of 2025, which ended in one of the worst moments in Palestinian political history. A highly dangerous reality has been consolidated, crowned by the collective Palestinian acceptance of the Trump plan, which not only placed the responsibility for what happened on the Palestinians but will practically put them, if implemented, under a colonial trusteeship system covered by international legitimacy. This plan marginalized Palestinian political representation, targeted the dismantling of the de facto authority in Gaza, and simultaneously prevented the return of the Palestinian Authority, placing the latter under the test of "reform" according to criteria determined by Washington and Tel Aviv. In light of a severe imbalance in power, rejecting the plan seemed almost impossible, which opened the door to a central question: How did the Palestinians reach this deadlock, and was it inevitable? How can they emerge from it?

What transpired was not an isolated event but the result of power balances and factors with the same players, making the most likely scenario in 2026 the continuation of the same path, perhaps worse, through an attempt to translate human extermination into political extermination aimed at liquidating the Palestinian cause from its roots. This could succeed, even temporarily, unless substantial changes occur, especially Palestinian ones, capable of altering this trajectory. The most notable expected changes, which started to materialize at the beginning of the new year, are represented by the explicit return of the United States to the logic of empires, with the blatant application of the Monroe Doctrine in Latin America, manifested in the kidnapping of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, accompanied by unprecedented American rhetoric legitimizing piracy and control over the wealth of nations by force. Trump openly declared that Venezuelan oil is the target, threatening Latin American countries and others with a similar fate if they do not succumb to American will.

The second phase of Trump's plan for Gaza will not be implemented as it is; rather, it will be re-engineered to serve Israeli goals, leaving the dangers of extermination, ethnic cleansing, displacement, annexation, and settlement ongoing.

This behavior reflects a dangerous shift in the international system, where international law and the United Nations Charter are completely abandoned in favor of the law of the jungle. With the return of empire conflicts, every major power will seek to impose its hegemony in its "vital space," threatening a broad global escalation: China is poised to strengthen its power and military presence to protect its interests and supply chains, possibly reopening the Taiwan file, which it considers a part of China, while Russia continues its war in Ukraine and may aspire to reclaim its Soviet space, prompting other powers to adopt the same approach. In this climate, the Middle East appears to be the most likely region for escalation, against the backdrop of intense competition among various projects in the region (Iranian, Turkish, and Israeli), with a crucial fundamental difference between the Israeli colonial project, which aims to change the Middle East map and dominate it through direct military aggression and expansion, imposing safe and buffer zones, and continuing to fragment the countries of the region under the pretext of "protecting" minorities and encouraging various kinds of ethnic, sectarian, and nationalist tendencies to ensure that a unified Arab region does not emerge. Thus, Israel is the most prepared party to benefit from international chaos. Since October 7, 2023, it has adopted an unprecedented aggressive expansionist policy, which is expected to continue into 2026 with greater momentum and an American green light. The goal is clear: to exploit more than two years of genocide and comprehensive destruction in Gaza to achieve a political achievement that involves liquidating the Palestinian cause and imposing a new Middle East by force.

On the ground, an escalation of aggression and the imposition of new realities is expected, especially in the West Bank, through accelerating annexation and displacement policies, turning what remains of Palestinian land into populated enclaves subject to an apartheid system. This places the West Bank at the eye of the storm this year, where gradual and creeping actual annexation could be transformed into legal and official annexation, especially of areas designated as "C." As for Gaza, the second phase of Trump's plan will not be implemented as is; rather, it will be re-engineered to serve Israeli objectives, with the dangers of extermination, ethnic cleansing, displacement, annexation, and settlement continuing, as was the case in the first phase, where the resistance adhered to its terms while Israel continued its violations and aggression. Netanyahu's government will work to deepen the division of the sector, preventing any international power from constraining the freedom of the occupation army, and empty the "Peace" Council and its tools, including the Palestinian technocratic committee, of any national content, funneling them into service of Israeli goals, transforming them into executive tools under American trusteeship with international legitimacy. A limited reconstruction policy and improvements in living conditions in specific areas will be used as tools to break Palestinian will, disarm the resistance, and push the population towards internal migration in preparation for external migration; Netanyahu's government will obstruct any major reconstruction efforts because they prevent displacement.

This trend becomes more dangerous as Israel enters an election year where extremist right-wing forces compete for more hardline positions amidst a broad Israeli consensus rejecting a Palestinian state and denying national rights. Even if the government changes form, no real Israeli partner for peace is likely to emerge, and the door may open for a political path that reintroduces the "Deal of the Century" with a worse content or reproduces "Oslo" (1993) in a more imbalanced format, through a Palestinian entity that masks the existing apartheid state in all of Palestine: populated enclaves separated from one another, and a part of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip that is referred to as a state without Jerusalem, no return of refugees, and without sovereignty or components, which obscures the reality of apartheid.

Conversely, there are regional countries such as Iran and Turkey that have been part of the region for thousands of years, wanting to defend themselves and maintain their influence in their vital space. Regardless of the threats they pose to the peoples of Arab countries and their nations, they are not existential threats, and dialogue around them is possible. It has become clear that Israel (not Iran) is the danger to the region's security and stability, and if it succeeds in defeating Iran, its danger will increase. Therefore, there is a need and possibility to establish a regional Arab security system, similar to what occurred between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan and the Saudi-Iranian meeting in Beijing. And while the parties of the eight countries succeeded, along with international and regional parties (including the Saudi and French-led coalition for the two-state solution), in halting the genocide war, they failed to end the war itself or to prevent Israel from keeping the specter of its renewal alive. The discussion of the Palestinian state and the right to self-determination was included in Trump's plan and the resolution issued regarding it by the Security Council, but as a conditional possibility requiring Palestinian reforms controlled by Israel in setting its criteria.

These parties also managed to delay normalization and prevent legal annexation, but they will not be able to change the course fundamentally without a deep conviction and unwavering belief that the security and stability of the region can only be achieved by its countries, through real use of the leverage and pressure they possess. This remains contingent, first on a deep Palestinian change in leadership, vision, structure, and strategies, and forcing change on Israel from the outside, in light of the stagnation of internal avenues for change. Until then, 2026 seems poised to be a year where the effort to achieve what the occupying state could not accomplish continues: a political genocide that translates human extermination into strategic realities.

In any case, the Palestinian cause, which has remained alive for more than a century thanks to the resilience and resistance of its people, will endure; if it falters, it will rise from the ashes like a phoenix. The surplus of Israeli power is available now, but it will not remain in the future, especially since Israel only survives through extended warfare, and after the falsity of the Israeli narrative becomes clear, the world's peoples, especially in the West, will lean towards the freedom and justice represented by the Palestinian cause.