The Significance of Celebrating Victory and the Political Compensation for Israel

In his talk to the media on July 1, 2025, Trump addressed Netanyahu's upcoming visit to Washington next week, confirming that the visit would be "a quick celebration of victory (over Iran)... that all Iranian nuclear facilities have been destroyed, and we must celebrate that with the heroic pilots."

Trump hoped that the deal would be concluded during the visit, then changed his tone to assert that he would be "very firm regarding ending the war in Gaza," and he is confident that there will be a deal next week.

Amid preparations for this visit, which Israeli political circles estimate goes beyond mere celebration, the party landscape is witnessing significant shifts and noted debates: there is a heated and confrontational discussion in the Israeli cabinet, exclusively between Chief of Staff Zamer and ministers Smotrich and Ben Gvir, where Zamer asserts that military missions have been exhausted, and that the army has occupied three-quarters of the strip, stating that "the issue of hostages and prisoners remains," while Smotrich insists that victory cannot be contingent upon the return of prisoners and that they represent an important file, but the most critical aspect is a crushing victory.

Some sources estimate that Zamer's positions were pre-coordinated with Netanyahu, who has recently shown a distancing from both Smotrich and Ben Gvir, indicating he is indifferent to their positions, particularly during and after the war with Iran, where both their popularity is notably declining, while American pressures leave him no room to maneuver or suggest that he is under pressures from either of them that prevent him from concluding the deal in Gaza.

It was striking that on July 1, the Chief of Staff confirmed that "Hamas has become a dead organization," a term used here for the first time in the sense of decisively ending the war.

Concurrently, the discussion in Israel is expanding regarding the "Humanitarian Gaza Institution" and its failure to distribute aid, as well as testimonies from soldiers that it has become a trap for killing Palestinians around the clock, with daily numbers exceeding 200. Egypt and Qatar also oppose this war occupation mechanism under the guise of aid, considering it a means to prevent the entry of humanitarian aid and obstruct international humanitarian organizations from doing their work, and also an avenue to hinder the reconstruction of the strip and its management by Arab-Palestinians.

The Trump administration is discussing a new unprecedented concept, which is "political compensation for Israel" in exchange for ending the war in Gaza.

Questions have arisen regarding the meaning and content of the Trump administration's phrase, concerning "unprecedented compensation" to Israel in exchange for ending the war in Gaza, at a time when international discourse was practically leaning towards imposing sanctions on Israel and its officials.

Israeli sources questioned whether the statements of the American ambassador in Israel, Mike Huckabee, urging President Trump to use giant B52 bombers to strike Houthi positions in Yemen, fall under the framework of Trump-Netanyahu's "celebration" and American compensation for Israel.

Or if the "celebration" and the anticipated compensation align with the testimonies provided by military intelligence leaders and a representative of the Mossad before the Israeli court to justify postponing court sessions concerning Netanyahu's files for two weeks.

According to unofficial Israeli estimates, the talk is about compensation through normalization between certain Arab countries and Israel.

While the American administration realizes that Israel is unprepared and unwilling to pay the costs of normalization, especially with Saudi Arabia, and to recognize a Palestinian state. There is also a widening reach of estimates suggesting that Syria is currently a candidate for normalization while Israel is imposing conditions for that, which is Syria's concession of the Golan Heights occupied since 1967.

A new concept for normalization is proposed, which is based on forcing the regime in Damascus into a security agreement under American-Turkish sponsorship. Trump's partial approval to lift sanctions on Syria comes within this endeavor.

In light of what is happening in the West Bank, with the displacement of various localities, and the cutting of villages and towns, political compensation for Israel could involve the annexation of certain areas in the West Bank, which is being discussed in Israel recently, referring to the Khan al-Ahmar area, which bisects the West Bank north and south, as well as in the Hebron area and in the Massafer Yatta area, where ethnic cleansing processes are accelerating.

In discussing the significance of the political compensation idea, it seems that the direction has been firmly set by the Americans to end the war, even if through two installments of a swap deal and a ceasefire.

According to the Trump administration, no Israeli politician has the ability to enact this except Netanyahu.

Therefore, the personal compensation for the latter occurs through Trump's direct and public intervention to halt Netanyahu's trial, while Trump is indifferent to its details, wanting to please Netanyahu for some reason, which is to enlist him in service of American presidential priorities.

The question remains regarding the significance of Trump discussing the victory celebration, he, Netanyahu, and the pilots.

There is a significant discrepancy between Israeli and American estimates, where Trump confirms that B2 aircraft have destroyed the Iranian nuclear project, and the Israeli side questions that, with intelligence clarifying that the destruction has not eradicated the Iranian project, necessitating, according to Israel, keeping Iranian airspace open to Israeli warplanes, and requiring new strikes on Iranian facilities, meaning a renewal of the war, despite the revealed costs and the substantial destruction caused by Iranian missiles.

The estimate also suggests that Trump is interested in permanently ending the war between Israel and Iran, which is also the position of Arab states in general and the Gulf states specifically, as the "celebration" means an Israeli acceptance of the American narrative and the end of the war with Iran, which implies an open war.

In conclusion, the estimate is that the upcoming period, even until the deal is concluded if it is made, will witness an escalation that is the most intense within the framework of Operation "Gideon's Chariots" and the operation of five Israeli military brigades in the strip, and it seems headed towards a full occupation of the strip, even without officially announcing it, to the extent that residents of the Israeli towns surrounding Gaza have been warned about the massive explosions that will occur in these days.

With no optimism regarding the near future, American pressures to end the war have become more effective, and interference in Israel's internal affairs, both political and judicial, indicates this.

The embrace declared by Trump of Netanyahu seems closer to a "bear hug," from which Netanyahu cannot escape, admitting that the keys to Israeli decision-making are in Washington's hands, and it becomes evident that he prefers that the decision to stop the war in Gaza come from Trump so that he does not bear its consequences, according to his political calculations, as occurred with the ceasefire with Iran.

The idea of "political compensation for Israel," which could expand its scope, requires facing it Arabically, specifically preventing the annexation of areas in the West Bank, and preventing the Trump administration from sliding behind the Israeli government's efforts to undermine the Palestinian Authority, within the effort to prevent the establishment of a Palestinian state and lasting peace and stability.