Why is it Difficult to Extinguish the Fire of War in Sudan?

SadaNews - International calls for a ceasefire in Sudan intersect with an increasingly grim field and humanitarian reality, as the U.S. State Department urged both parties in the conflict to immediately end the violence and accept a humanitarian truce to protect civilians, following military escalation in West Kordofan with drones causing dozens of casualties.

At a time when organizations including the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) are sounding the alarm due to a suspected outbreak of chickenpox and the killing of health workers in South Kordofan, questions remain about the reasons behind the international and local failure to end this war.

Journalist and political analyst Mohamed Hamid Jumaa believes that the U.S. position offers nothing new, rather it repeats what resembles a "style book" in journalism (the editorial guide).

Jumaa explained - during his talk on the program "Behind the News" - that Washington speaks about the deterioration of humanitarian conditions and condemnation, then demands a halt to fighting without offering specific and practical proposals to build positions on, describing these statements as political slogans and public relations statements.

For his part, Cameron Hudson, a former advisor to the U.S. envoy to Sudan, acknowledges the failure to reach a ceasefire, attributing it to the fact that the Trump administration did not create the necessary incentives or impose strict punitive measures, limiting itself to imposing limited sanctions on individuals instead of punishing the Rapid Support Forces as an entity and designating it a terrorist group.

Hudson indicated that U.S. efforts focused only on external mediators such as the Quartet committee (including Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the United States) to curb their support for the conflicting parties in Sudan, without genuine engagement with the parties to the conflict on the ground.

According to the spokesperson, the senior advisor to the U.S. president on Arab and African affairs, Mas'ad Boulos, has not yet set foot in Sudan nor communicated with civilians or military personnel.

Hudson criticized the proposal by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio regarding the establishment of safe havens and humanitarian corridors, emphasizing the absence of any vision to deploy peacekeeping forces or halt the sale of drones, noting that the real crisis lies in the scarcity of humanitarian aid provided by the international community, even in camps in Chad and South Sudan.

The Military Bet

Conversely, Mohamed Hamid Jumaa clarifies that the Sudanese army and government prioritize military action as the Rapid Support Forces have imposed existential choices, affirming that the armed forces do not fundamentally reject political solutions but are leaning towards the military option based on ground realities.

Jumaa added that the areas under army control grant work permits to organizations and welcome displaced persons fleeing - even from Darfur and Al-Fasher - towards the Northern State, the River Nile, and Khartoum, denying that the army attacks civilians or relief efforts, while accusing the Rapid Support Forces of targeting cities with drones in Al-Dalij and Al-Obeid and Kourtala. He also justified the government's hesitance regarding some initiatives such as the "Quartet" due to the presence of parties accused of participating in the aggression.

The Rapid Support Forces' Vision

From a different perspective, editor-in-chief of the Sudanese newspaper "Al-Wasat" Fathi Al-Husseini confirms that the Rapid Support Forces have been ready to negotiate since the beginning of the war to achieve a just peace, accusing the army of obstructing negotiations by raising the bar on demands and offering patchwork solutions to impose its military authority and prevent civilian rule.

According to Al-Husseini, millions of Sudanese living in Kordofan and Darfur enjoy economic prosperity and lower living costs compared to the region of Al-Jazeera and the North. He held the army's aircraft and drones largely responsible for civilian deaths. Al-Husseini expressed his conviction that the political coalition "Establishment" is the largest bloc representing the people opposed to the military coup.

An Existential Equation

In a reading that summarizes the depth of the impasse, Cameron Hudson believes that the Sudanese war has become governed by an existential equation that is difficult to break, as the Rapid Support Forces continue military confrontation as a cover to evade accountability for their violations, while the army persists in fighting based on its institutional doctrine of protecting the entity of the state and preserving its legitimacy.

Hudson affirms that this conflict will remain in a vicious and open cycle unless Washington intervenes with a diplomatic approach capable of dismantling the fears of both parties and balancing their vital interests at the negotiation table.

Source: Al Jazeera