Secret Assessments Contradict Trump's Narrative.. Iran Recovers 90% of Its Missile Facilities

SadaNews - Contrary to the public narrative of U.S. President Donald Trump's administration promoting the destruction of Iranian military capabilities, the New York Times reported - citing informed sources - that American intelligence agencies have informed decision-makers behind closed doors that Tehran has regained control of about 90% of its underground missile facilities across the country.

The secret assessments - conducted earlier this month and discussed by intelligence agencies - indicate that Iran has retained a significant portion of its arsenal, putting Washington in a strategic dilemma due to a severe shortage it suffers from vital ammunition.

The assessments, based on satellite imagery and advanced monitoring technologies, show figures described as alarming to senior officials in Washington, including:

Operational recovery: About 90% of the underground storage and launch facilities are "partially or fully" operational.

Strait of Hormuz risk: Iran has regained operational access to 30 of 33 missile sites overlooking the strategic strait, through which nearly one-fifth of the world's daily oil consumption passes. This poses a direct threat to more than 20 U.S. warships enforcing a blockade there, in addition to passing tankers.

Missiles and platforms: Tehran retains about 70% of mobile launch platforms and nearly 70% of its missile stockpile that it possessed before the war.

According to sources, Iranian forces have the capability to transfer missiles via mobile platforms within the facilities or launch them directly from platforms integrated into the facilities themselves.

Contradiction with the Official Narrative

These intelligence findings contradict the narrative from the U.S. administration. On March 9, Trump stated that Iran's missiles "were scattered and diminished" and that the country had "nothing left in military terms."

On April 8, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced that the joint military operation with Israel had "obliterated the Iranian army and rendered it operationally ineffective for years to come."

In response to the report, White House spokesperson Olivia Wells reiterated Trump's assertions that the Iranian army was "crushed," adding that anyone who believes that Iran has reconstituted its military is "deluded or a mouthpiece for the Revolutionary Guard."

Trump, in a post, stated that insinuating the Iranian military is in good shape is "almost an act of treason."

Meanwhile, acting Pentagon spokesperson Joel Valdez described the New York Times' coverage as "outrageous," accusing it of acting as "public relations agents for the Iranian regime" to undermine what he described as a "historic achievement" for the "epic wrath" operation.

What Keeps the Iranian Arsenal Intact?

The report highlights the serious implications of any potential collapse of the fragile ceasefire. If Trump ordered new strikes, the military would have to delve deeper into its strategic stockpiles.

Intelligence attributes the preservation of the Iranian arsenal to a "tactical choice" made by American leaders, as the Pentagon opted to try to close the entrances to the facilities due to the limited availability of bunker-busting bombs instead of destroying them entirely from within, aiming to conserve these bombs for operational plans in Asia in anticipation of potential wars with China and North Korea.

U.S. Exhaustion Figures

According to the newspaper, Washington has used about 1,100 long-range cruise missiles, which is close to the total remaining supplies in the U.S. stockpile.

It has also launched more than 1,000 Tomahawk missiles, which equals about 10 times the number that the Pentagon purchases in one year.

More than 1,300 Patriot interceptors have been consumed, exceeding two full years of production at 2025 rates.

The report warns that replenishing these munitions will require years, not months.

Despite plans by companies such as Lockheed Martin to increase their production of "Patriot" missiles from around 650 currently to 2,000 annually, the industrial sector faces significant difficulties in ramping up missile engine production at the speed that Trump demands.

Iranian Losses and European Concerns

This does not mean that Tehran has emerged without losses, as the report indicates that the U.S.-Israeli attack caused significant damage to Iranian defenses and strategic sites.

Many senior leaders have also been killed, and the Iranian economy is now reeling under the pressures of war, raising questions about Tehran's ability to maintain its stance on negotiations or continue to halt shipping traffic in Hormuz.

In contrast, the retention of Iran's military capabilities has exacerbated the concerns of European allies who purchased billions of dollars worth of munitions from the United States for Ukraine, and now fear not receiving these weapons as Washington is compelled to use them to replenish its own stockpiles.

Despite these concerns, military leaders continue to reassure both domestic and foreign audiences. The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine testified before Congress, stating, "We have enough munitions for what we are tasked with doing at this time."

Pentagon's principal spokesperson Sean Barniel also emphasized that the military possesses everything necessary to carry out its missions, stating, "We have successfully executed multiple operations while ensuring that the U.S. military retains a deep arsenal of capabilities to protect our people and interests."