Europe Reacts.. The Implications of the End of Orban's 16-Year Rule in Hungary

SadaNews - The parliamentary elections in Hungary held yesterday, Sunday, have ended Prime Minister Viktor Orban's continuous rule for 16 years, following a sweeping victory for the opposition "Tisa" party led by Peter Magyary, who garnered 53% of the votes and 138 seats out of 199 in the National Assembly, after 98.9% of the votes were counted.

With this parliamentary share, and confirmed absolute majority allowing his party to amend the constitution, Magyary is expected to become Hungary's next prime minister.

Magyary is likely to focus on ending the recession, managing increasing financial pressures in an economy worth 250 billion dollars, repairing relations with the European Union, and releasing frozen European funds essential for infrastructure investments during the new four-year parliamentary term.

The "Fidesz" party led by Orban secured only 54 seats in the 199-member National Assembly. His strategy of presenting himself as a candidate for peace and sovereignty in the face of "Brussels bureaucracy" does not appear to have resonated with voters, who seemed more interested in local social and economic issues compared to global geopolitical concerns.

Political Implications

The victory of the "Tisa" party will lead to a change in Hungary's tone towards the European Union and NATO without reaching Brussels' centrist position.

Early steps are expected to be taken to combat corruption, improve transparency in government contracts, and enhance media and judicial independence. Magyary has also promised to join the European Public Prosecutor's Office, reduce state interference, and clarify Hungary's position within Western institutions.

European officials will undoubtedly welcome the end of the obstructionist policies that Orban pursued at the EU level, especially concerning aid to Ukraine and sanctions related to Russia. This could pave the way for the release of about 17 billion euros in frozen EU funds and boost investment in Hungary's infrastructure and energy sectors in the coming years.

However, Magyary belongs to the conservative wing of the European center-right and holds cautious positions on immigration, the green deal, the free trade agreement with "Mercosur", and some aspects of EU expansion. While the government led by "Tisa" will be more cooperative and less obstructive and less inclined towards Russia compared to Orban's government, it will not fully align with the mainstream European current.

The toughest test will be on the domestic front. Expectations for reform will rise, but the need to control public finances will force Magyary into difficult decisions within weeks of taking office, including curbing spending.

If a two-thirds majority is achieved, it will give Magyary the ability to amend the constitution, reshape key laws, and restructure core institutions without needing opposition support.

This will be a critical factor in reversing the trend of democratic decline and restoring the rule of law. Loyalists to the "Fidesz" party remain entrenched in key institutions, from the public prosecutor to the constitutional court, with mandates extending to 2034 and 2027, respectively. Reforms are likely to face resistance from Orban's networks within the military, courts, and state media, in attempts to obstruct them, a challenge they will find harder to navigate if "Tisa"'s overwhelming majority is confirmed.