Two Years After Gaza War: Poll Reveals Decline in Trust for Hamas and Reduced Support for Two-State Solution

SadaNews: On the occasion of the two-year anniversary of the events of October 7, 2023, the Jerusalem Media and Communication Center (JMCC) conducted a public opinion poll in collaboration with the Friedrich Ebert Foundation between September 4 and 8, 2025, revealing significant changes in public sentiment, particularly regarding the ongoing war in Gaza, the future of the sector, trust in political factions and figures, in addition to an evaluation of the performance of the Palestinian National Authority. The survey was conducted in the West Bank, including Jerusalem, without including the Gaza Strip due to the inability to access a random sample because of field conditions.

Palestinians' Perspective on the Gaza War and Its Implications

The poll results showed a clear decline in public optimism regarding the outcomes of the war, as the percentage of those who believe that the attack launched by Hamas on October 7 serves the Palestinian national interest dropped from 45% in last year's poll to 30.9% in the current poll. Conversely, the percentage of those who consider this attack harmful to the national interest rose from 30.2% to 35.2%. Additionally, 25.9% of participants expressed a neutral stance, believing that the attack neither serves nor harms the national interest.

Moreover, optimism about Hamas's victory in the war saw a sharp decline from 67.1% in October 2023 to only 25.9% in September 2025, while 46.3% believed that the war would not end in favor of any party. The percentage of those who expected the war to improve Hamas's popularity decreased from 71.6% to 41.4%, while the percentage of those who believe that the war will lead to a decline in the movement's popularity increased from 7.6% to 22.2%.

The Future of Gaza After the War

Regarding the future of the Gaza Strip, the survey showed a decrease in the percentage of those expecting Hamas to continue controlling the sector, from 52.2% in May 2024 to 34.4% currently, alongside an increase in the percentage of those who expect Gaza to come under international administration from 17.3% to 27.8%. When asked about their personal preferences, 44.2% preferred Hamas to remain in control, while 26.4% expressed a desire for the National Authority to have a role in managing the sector, and 18.7% preferred international administration.

Public Attitude Toward the Palestinian National Authority

The results of the poll revealed a continued state of public dissatisfaction with the performance of the Authority, as 73.3% expressed dissatisfaction with the Authority's stance on the war, compared to only 23.1% who expressed satisfaction. Additionally, 55.8% rated the Authority's performance as poor, while 41.8% rated it as good, which reflects a slight decline compared to the September 2023 poll. Regarding the evaluation of President Mahmoud Abbas, the approval rate rose to 34.4% compared to 26.8% the previous year. On the other hand, opinions about Prime Minister Dr. Mohamed Mustafa were divided, as 40.4% believed he was doing his job well or adequately, while 44.1% considered his performance poor.

Sixteen months after the formation of the government, 65.3% expressed their dissatisfaction with its performance, compared to 26.4% who showed satisfaction. The public's evaluation of some of the Authority's apparatus varied, with 51.8% rating the education sector as good or adequate, whereas 47.8% considered it poor. The health sector received a positive or average rating from 61.1%, while 37.1% saw it as poor. Meanwhile, the police apparatus received high or medium trust from 69.4% of respondents, compared to 30.6% who stated that their trust was low or nonexistent.

The Financial Crisis of the Authority

Regarding the financial crisis facing the Authority, 45.7% of participants expected this crisis to lead to the Authority's collapse, while 48.8% dismissed this possibility. In the event of a collapse, 41.1% expected Israel to transform the West Bank into separate administrative areas in the form of cantons, while 29.4% believed this would lead to chaos and security breakdown, and 23.8% expected Israel to return to managing the West Bank as it did before the establishment of the Authority. As for responsibility for the crisis, 48.7% blamed Israel, compared to 36.6% who blamed the Palestinian Authority, and 11.6% blamed donor countries.

Public Opinion Trends on Prominent Political Issues

Support for the two-state solution dropped to 25.9%, compared to 32% in May 2024, while support for a bi-national one-state solution rose to 30.8%, after being 25% in September 2024. Additionally, the percentage of those who believe that peaceful negotiations are the best means to achieve the goals of the Palestinian people increased to 44.8%, after being 25.7% in September 2023, while the percentage preferring armed resistance decreased from 33.7% to 27.8%. Support for military operations against Israeli targets decreased to 32%, while opposition to them rose to 56.9%.

Palestinian Reconciliation

In terms of national reconciliation, the majority of participants, at 59.6%, expressed pessimism regarding the prospects of reconciliation between the Fatah and Hamas movements, while 33.1% expected it to occur within the next year. Regarding responsibility for the ongoing division, 14.4% blamed Fatah, 3.5% blamed Hamas, 25.9% blamed both, and 10.2% blamed the United States, while 10.8% chose not to answer.

Arab-Israeli Normalization

The percentage of those expecting the war to advance Arab-Israeli normalization projects increased to 47.8%, compared to 38.5% in May 2024, while the percentage expecting a decline in such projects decreased to 17.6%, down from 26%.

Trust in Factions and Figures

The survey results showed a decline in trust in political factions, with trust in Hamas falling to 8.5%, down from 18.7% in October 2023, while trust in Fatah increased slightly to 11%, compared to 7.1% previously. Conversely, a significant majority, at 68.5%, expressed distrust in any political organization.

Regarding political figures, Marwan Barghouti topped the list of the most trusted figures, followed by President Mahmoud Abbas, while the majority, 61%, expressed distrust in any political figure. For comparison, a survey conducted in October 2023 showed that Abu Obeida, the spokesperson for Hamas, was the most trusted figure with 10.3%, followed by Mohammed Deif with 7.4%, while 57.8% did not trust any figure at that time.

To view the survey results from here 

About the Center

The Jerusalem Media and Communication Center (JMCC) is a vital resource for Palestinian public opinion and Palestinian politics, utilized by policymakers, journalists, and researchers. Its valuable daily summary for Arabic journalism, which has been published six days a week for over two decades, is an immediate means of monitoring translated news articles, editorials, and interviews with Palestinian officials, civil society members, and activists, providing English speakers with unparalleled access to Palestinian media and political discourse.

The Center also conducts regular public opinion polls among the Palestinian public, providing reliable metrics on Palestinian perspectives regarding political leaders, factions, and current events.

The Center was founded in 1988 by a group of Palestinian journalists and researchers committed to providing accurate and timely information from the occupied Palestinian territories.

The Center's archive – available in both English and Arabic – includes electronic and printed publications on key issues: Israeli settlements, the peace process, access to water, Palestinian public opinion trends, and analyses from leading Palestinian thinkers.