Donbas: The Key to Ending the War in Ukraine

SadaNews - The Donbas region has taken center stage in political and media interest these days, as the fate of the war in Ukraine is directly linked to its destiny, becoming the foremost battleground of challenge between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky.

While Zelensky firmly rejects any concession over the region, Donbas remains a strategic obsession for Putin, who has sought to control it for over a decade, either through supporting separatists or by direct invasion.

After being thwarted in his attempts to achieve complete control by force, Putin is now proposing the option of negotiations, setting the annexation of Donbas as a condition for ending the war, at a time when the British newspaper Independent suggests that he may gain support from U.S. President Donald Trump this time.

What is the significance of the Donbas region? Why is Ukraine so desperate to defend it? What are the strategic and historical backgrounds that compel Putin to insist on acquiring it? Will Trump assist him through pressure on Ukrainians and Europeans to achieve his goal, fulfilling both their dreams? And could the fate of the region be decided in the Oval Office instead of on the battlefield?

A Distinct Geographic Location

The name Donbas is derived from the words "Don" meaning river, and "Bas" meaning basin. However, historians of the region clarify that the basin here refers to the large coal basin along the Donets mountain range and river.

The Donbas region occupies a distinct geographical location along Ukraine's eastern border with Russia, covering an area of 55,000 square kilometers, of which it is estimated that only about 6,600 square kilometers remain under Ukrainian control. Its population exceeds 5 million, with around 1.5 million displaced due to the war.

The Donbas region consists of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, of which Russia currently occupies about 88%. Russian forces control nearly the entire Luhansk area and about 79% of the Donetsk region, according to analysis by the U.S. Institute for the Study of War.

A Historical Connection to Russia

According to a report published by the British newspaper Independent, the Donbas region is closely linked to Russian history, as it was part of the Soviet Union and witnessed a significant industrial boom during Stalin's era, attracting numerous waves of Russian workers. The area remains predominantly Russian-speaking to this day.

After Ukraine's independence from the Soviet Union, Russia did not take its eyes off Donbas, and a separatist war flared up early in the region. In 2014, pro-Russian separatists took up arms there, announcing the establishment of the Donetsk and Luhansk republics, which were recognized only by Putin, just three days before he launched his invasion of Ukraine.

For the Russian president, this area is an integral part of Russia, representing one of the main justifications for the attack on Ukraine, which he claims aims to "protect Russian speakers".

According to the latest published census, Ukrainians make up 56.9% of the population in the region, while Russians account for 38.2%.

According to a report from "Tout Lorop" titled "Why is Donbas a Strategic Issue?" Donbas, as a border area easily supplied by Moscow, the control over it would ultimately enable Putin to defeat the Ukrainian army and weaken Ukraine, which is seeking to join NATO, so it would be a significant strategic success for Moscow.

The Ukraine Belt

Despite its significant economic importance, Donbas's primary advantage lies in its military position in the conflict. The defensive lines in Donetsk have held since the war began, hindering Russian progress towards the west of the country. If Russia can breach this front line, the rest of Ukraine is at risk, starting with the city of Kharkiv.

A war study analysis described the Donbas region as a "fortified belt" for Ukraine and of major strategic value, as it constitutes the main fortified defense line along the front between Russia and Ukraine.

The Independent report cites European Policy Analysis Center researcher Elena Bekitova saying, "Ukraine maintains a key defensive line across Donetsk, where it has built a fortified area over years since the war began 11 years ago".

Bekitova adds that Russia has not been able to breach that fortified line since 2014 and has lost much of its power there. The entire area is heavily mined, and Ukrainian forces have been preparing it for years.

She explains, "It is not just trenches; it is a deep, multi-layered defense with shelters, anti-tank trenches, minefields, and industrial areas integrated into the terrain... The region includes heights, rivers, and prominent urban areas, making it extremely difficult to control".

Bekitova warns that losing this fortified line would have "serious consequences" for Ukraine, as Russia would advance in the central and western parts of the country, thus shifting the front line about 80 kilometers west, gaining open land - flat plains free from natural obstacles - granting it a direct path towards Kharkiv, Poltava, and Dnipro.

The Industrial Lung of Ukraine

Before the war, the Donbas region was dubbed the "industrial lung of Ukraine" due to its pivotal role in the economy, housing important coal and mineral mines, as these coal reserves were used to operate a large part of the electricity grid and to produce local steel.

According to a report from the British Telegraph, Putin specifically demands control over Donetsk due to its natural wealth, where more than 70% of Ukraine's mineral resources are concentrated in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

According to the Tout Lorop report, the Donbas region is a crucial economic asset, characterized by an abundance of its subsurface resources: a wide range of minerals (limestone, dolomite, quartzite, etc.), in addition to strategic deposits such as lithium, shale gas, and natural gas.

In 2013, the region produced nearly a quarter of Ukraine's industrial output, 14% of the country's GDP, a quarter of its exports, and more than a tenth of its tax revenues.

Although the Ukrainian economy is currently sluggish after a decade of conflict, the Komsomolets coal mine in Donbas remains the most productive in the country, producing 1.37 million tons of coal annually. Additionally, the region contains nearly 2.8 million hectares of arable land.

This immense economic significance of the Donbas region likely explains Russia's fierce insistence on controlling it, especially as it realizes how critical the region was to the Soviet Union's economic foundation.

Popular Opposition

A report from Kyiv by NBC News chief correspondent Richard Engel titled "What is the Ukrainian Donbas Region, and Why is it So Important to Putin in Trump’s Talks?" noted that despite Ukraine being severely exhausted by the war, giving up the Donbas region faces strong opposition.

According to a recent poll conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, about 75% of Ukrainians oppose conceding any land to Russia.

According to Engel - who prepared his report from areas of the Donbas region still under Ukrainian control - residents in the city of Kharkiv, despite continuing to flee due to the war, show no desire to concede this area as part of any agreement.

Engel quotes writer and activist Ivanna Skaiba as saying, "We would never accept any possibility of abandoning our land; it is not just about the territory, but about our people, values, and way of life".

She added, "If we give up the land, this war will continue, and it will not stop," citing previous instances where she said Ukraine made painful concessions, only to face renewed Russian aggression.

Engel also quotes an NGO worker living in Kyiv named Kateryna Afarimenko, saying that territorial concessions would only legitimize the Russian invasion and give it a "green light" for future attacks even beyond Ukraine, adding that Trump's support for occupying Donbas would open the door for Russia to invade other countries.

Ukrainian anti-corruption activist Olena Halushka regarded abandoning unoccupied areas as "entirely unacceptable," noting that the fortifications in Donbas are heavy and strong compared to other regions.

She expressed concern that "giving Russia the area it has failed to invade since 2014 would pave the way for it to occupy other areas much faster, raising the level of land seizure and ongoing destruction of the world order to a whole new level, and that no one in Ukraine trusts any written guarantees from Russia".

Engel confirms that there is a near-unanimity among the population that even if Zelensky were to obtain security guarantees from the U.S. and Europe, Putin would not stop at Donbas.

A Designed Offer for Rejection

Some analysts believe that Russian President Putin's insistence on demanding Ukraine concede Donbas may conceal another dimension.

According to an NBC News report, UN Institute for Disarmament Research expert Pavel Podvig considered Moscow's proposals as "possibly an offer designed for rejection," as it is politically "unacceptable for the leadership in Kyiv".

Podvig explains that the Kremlin does not view the matter as merely a dispute over land; "This is not what Moscow really wants from this settlement. While Putin seeks to control as much of Ukraine as possible, he will not accept a peace agreement that does not also impose strict limitations on Kyiv's integration into the West as an independent armed state".

Can Zelensky Concede Donbas?

Ukrainian President Zelensky still insists that conceding Donbas or any other Ukrainian region is out of the question; he wrote on X platform after discussing land swaps: "The territorial issue is settled by the Ukrainian constitution, and no one will deviate from it, nor could they, and Ukrainians will not concede their lands to the occupier".

According to experts on the Ukrainian constitution enacted in 1996, its second article states, "Ukraine's sovereignty extends throughout its territory, it is a unified state, and its territory -within its current borders- is indivisible and inviolable." Thus, according to the Tout Lorop report, conceding part of the territory to Russia would require amending the constitution, which is a right "exclusively for the people," according to Article 5 of the same constitution.

Even though Ukraine is exhausted by the war, and Russia controls most of the Donbas territory, Ukrainian forces still maintain control over key parts of Donetsk, including the heavily fortified cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, along with heavily defended positions that have claimed thousands of lives.

The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War estimated that full control over Donbas "would likely take many years for Russian forces after several tough campaigns".

From previous reports and studies, various factors emerge that might empower Zelensky to maintain his refusal to concede Donbas, among these factors:

The great geographic, military, and economic significance of the Donbas region.

The fortified positions and desperate defense of Ukrainian forces in the area.

The firm popular rejection of any concession over Donbas.

The constitutional prohibition of any such decision.

The lack of trust in Russia and its commitments.

The position of European allies rejecting any changes to Ukraine's borders by force.

In this context, observers believe that linking the fate of the war to the concession of the region might complicate the issue further and possibly prolong the war, anticipating that Putin's demands regarding Donbas will create a tense atmosphere for the potential meeting that the parties plan to hold, contrary to the friendly atmosphere that characterized the meetings between Trump and Putin in Alaska, and Trump and Zelensky in the White House.

Source: Al Jazeera