Scenarios of War and the Palestinian Fate

The regional war extending from Washington and Tel Aviv against Tehran is no longer just a fleeting confrontation or traditional conflict. It has turned into a multidimensional struggle that reshapes regional politics and directly pressures the Palestinian national fate. While the world is preoccupied with this war, our people in Gaza are suffocating, still living in a state of genocide, while Israel invests in time to solidify security and settlement realities to implement its plans, which not only target national destiny but extend to affect the daily lives of our people in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, including occupied Jerusalem, by imposing widespread realities on the ground without any effective regional or international deterrents.

Gaza: A Laboratory of Collapse between Genocide and Political Paralysis

In this context, Gaza has become a laboratory for the extent of the ethical, political, and humanitarian crisis. What is happening there is a systematic destruction of the social and living structure, at a time when the Palestinian committee tasked with managing Gaza seems like an extension of what is called the "Trump Peace Council," paralyzed not only by the complexities of the field but also due to the absence of clear authorities and the lack of a supportive political and national environment for its work, with its role being dependent on a war balance governed outside Palestinian will, according to the rhythm of Washington and Tel Aviv in their conflict with Tehran. The lack of unity in Palestinian decision-making, the erosion of institutional capacity, and the committee's lack of real tools of action have turned it into an administrative framework without executive power at a moment that requires a sovereign political decision and effective field tools.

At the same time, the Palestinian Authority effectively seems absent from any role in managing the escalating humanitarian crisis in Gaza or influencing its course, while this absence intersects with its incapacity in the West Bank, where it performs its formal role without being able to meet its basic obligations, whether in securing the minimum of living security or in protecting citizens from the oppression of the occupation army and the terrorism of settler gangs, not to mention its complete inability to confront the Israeli singling out of Jerusalem and the Islamic and Christian holy sites.

Paths of War: From Partial Settlements to the Brink of Chaos

In light of this complex reality, the war cannot be read as a single path but as a series of open scenarios that redefine the conditions for Palestinian resilience and the location of the issue within the region.

The war, in this context, is heading toward three main paths, the results of which extend beyond regional balances directly to resilience conditions and the reshaping of Palestinian national destiny:

First, a partial settlement that might impose temporary restrictions on the Iranian nuclear program, yet keeps the roots of the conflict intact, without paying any attention to addressing the crises in Gaza or halting the political and economic deterioration in the West Bank. This means continued pressure on daily life and deepening the gap between the living reality and political representation.

Second, a long war of attrition continues without resolution, leading to the exacerbation of economic and social crises, a diminishing sense of security, and eroding the community's ability to endure, with increasing prospects for emigration, deteriorating services, and the collapse of what remains of institutional capacity to manage crises.

Third, a limited regional escalation before an overall chaos, where the circle of confrontation expands to include additional parties, imposing greater pressures on the economy, security, and energy, and increasing the isolation of the Palestinian situation, without reaching an overall explosion, but preparing for it.

The common denominator among these scenarios is the absence of resolution, rendering any regional arrangement fragile and keeping the door open for subsequent rounds of conflict, while confirming at the same time that the Palestinian opportunity remains contingent on its ability to unify national identity, rebuild its institutions, and confront the war of settlement and the attempts to separate the Gaza Strip from the national identity.

Power Interactions: Who Directs the Paths?

However, these paths do not form by themselves but through interactions of active forces and the limits of their ability to direct or contain the war.

The war paths are formed within a complex interaction between the parties, as each seeks to direct it in a way that serves its interests, without having the ability for complete resolution.

Israel, in this context, works to utilize its position within the decision-making system in Washington to influence the limits of any potential settlement, or to push for prolonging the conflict if its outcomes conflict with its goals, while retaining the option of imposing facts on the ground by force.

Meanwhile, the United States tends to manage the conflict more than resolve it, by seeking a containable settlement that reduces risks and avoids slipping into a broader confrontation. However, this approach remains constrained by intertwined interests with Israel and considerations of international stability and energy.

Iran treats the war as an open path with multiple possibilities, ranging from acceptance of provisional restrictions to engaging in a long war of attrition or expanding involvement in a calculated manner, preserving its regional position without slipping into an overall confrontation.

Arab countries adopt a cautious pragmatic approach that focuses on containing the repercussions and protecting internal stability, without having the ability to influence the roots of the conflict, especially in light of the absence of a real horizon for solving the Palestinian issue.

Egypt continues its role in regulating the pace in Gaza and preventing the humanitarian explosion, yet remains limited in its influence on shaping the broader regional paths, while the European Union recognizes the necessity of linking the Iranian path with the Palestinian issue, without having sufficient tools to enforce this link.

Within these interactions, the limits of each scenario are defined, as well as the margins of Palestinian action, whether expanding or contracting, depending on the Palestinians' ability to read and influence these balances.

U.S.-Israeli Divergence: Tactic or Strategic Gap?

In this context, the divergence between Washington and Tel Aviv emerges as a pivotal factor in weighing the war paths.

As past experiences have shown, Israel has been able to impose its pragmatic vision and establish facts on the ground that surpass what agreements stipulated, including the aftermath of the Sharm El-Sheikh understandings to stop the war on Gaza, and what preceded it from the war cessation agreement on the Lebanese front. The current divergence in war goals and paths regarding Iran is one of the most significant determinants of the region's future.

While Washington seeks a containable settlement that regulates the Iranian nuclear program and limits risks, Tel Aviv is working to expand its goals towards reshaping the strategic environment by weakening its adversaries and imposing new facts.

The fundamental question is not the existence of divergence but its potential to turn into a strategic dispute: Will Washington be satisfied with a partial agreement while Israel sees the threat as unaddressed?

If this divergence turns into a conflict, will it open a window for rearranging priorities or lead to a management of an open conflict that keeps the Palestinian issue on the margins?

In any case, the effect of this divergence will remain direct on the Palestinian fate, either rising or declining, according to the Palestinians' ability to invest in it or be affected by it.

The Palestinian Reality: One Crisis in Two Forms

All this is clearly reflected in the Palestinian reality itself, which can no longer tolerate further fragmentation. Gaza is experiencing a comprehensive collapse in services, in light of the effective absence of authority and the ongoing siege and destruction, placing it outside any effective political equation despite its centrality, while the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank faces a rolling collapse, with a complete inability to provide the minimum of security and the means of endurance for citizens in the face of escalating terrorism from settler gangs and the oppression of the occupation army. This divergence does not reflect a difference as much as it reflects the unity of the crisis in different forms, confirming that the absence of organized national action is the decisive factor in deepening the Palestinian fragility.

The Palestinian Opportunity: From Reception to Action

Nevertheless, this fragility does not negate the possibility of action but rather makes it more urgent. Despite the grim scene, the opportunity still exists; however, it is no longer spontaneous but conditional on the Palestinians' ability to rebuild their collective political identity and transition from a passive stance to action.

This requires a comprehensive practical path that begins with reshaping the national identity on the basis of real unity that ends the division and restores the legitimacy of inclusive political representation, alongside the emergence of a leadership capable of reading international and regional transformations and interacting with them effectively.

It also necessitates formulating a comprehensive struggle strategy that links political, diplomatic, and legal efforts and repositions the Palestinian issue at the center of any regional arrangements, instead of remaining on its margins. In this context, international representation becomes a tool for transforming sympathy and solidarity into tangible political pressure.

However, all this remains contingent upon rebuilding Palestinian institutions as a cornerstone for societal resilience, capable of ensuring the minimum of living security and boosting citizen confidence, turning the social dimension into a strength in political action.

Between War Paths and the Will for Palestinian Action

Ultimately, this war is not measured solely by its military outcomes, but by what it will leave in terms of reshaping the region and the position Palestinians will occupy in this transformation.

Gaza is not a margin but the center of moral and political testing, and any settlement that transcends it will be nothing more than a temporary truce. Moreover, the divergence between Washington and Tel Aviv, no matter how significant, will not turn into an opportunity without Palestinian ability to invest in it. The pressing question remains: Do Palestinians possess the capacity to shift from a position of being affected to one of influencing at a time when the region is being redefined?