Hamas Miscalculated and So Did Israel!

The question raised since October 7, 2023: Did Hamas miscalculate? Did it not know that this would be the outcome?

In one of the Arab satellite channels, the host asked Musa Abu Marzouk, a Hamas leader: "Did Hamas think it would liberate Palestine?"
This question frustrated Abu Marzouk, who withdrew from the interview. Of course, the question is provocative, as any child knows that liberating Palestine cannot be achieved with 1400 fighters, nor even with a hundred thousand fighters, given the power balances understood by everyone.

Every child knows that the goal of the operation was not to liberate Palestine, but rather to release Palestinian prisoners from jails, and to reignite interest in the Palestinian cause, which has seen diminishing attention, while the occupation continues to annex more lands in the West Bank and maintain a long-standing siege on the Gaza Strip. The existence of two entities, one in the West Bank and the other in Gaza, has now become an accepted reality.

Hamas assessed the operation using previous criteria for prisoner exchanges; for instance, soldier Gilad Shalit was exchanged for more than 1,027 Palestinian prisoners, and based on that, Hamas calculated that capturing a number of soldiers could lead to an exchange that includes all Palestinian prisoners.

The surprise was that Hamas captured a large number of soldiers, more than it itself anticipated. However, what marred the operation was that some participants killed and captured civilians, including the elderly, alongside a mass escape of revelers from a music festival, and the occupation forces utilizing the "Hannibal Protocol" to kill hostages with their captors.

This scene was provocative for all who witnessed it, aside from the "booty" operations carried out by some Gaza civilians after the border strip between the two sides was opened.

Hamas achieved a significant military accomplishment, which no one denies, not even the leaders of the occupation army.

The Israeli government led by Netanyahu received a fatal blow, as it is the government that marketed itself as a pure right-wing government that is the most hardline.

Agreeing to a prisoner exchange means its failure and end, while on the other hand, it raised Hamas’s stature to the skies, not only in the Gaza Strip, but also in the West Bank and beyond Palestine, especially since the southern Lebanese front remained ambiguous in its capabilities, led by Mr. Hassan Nasrallah before his martyrdom.

For this reason, it was impossible for a government with the specifications of the current government to accept a prisoner exchange. This means that Hamas would remain in power much stronger than it was before the operation, and it also indicates Israel's weakness and its deterrent capabilities.

Netanyahu's government decided on war, but not an ordinary war; rather, it made a decision to take advantage of the opportunity to eliminate the Palestinian presence in the Gaza Strip by displacing its population and destroying the resistance.

The occupation focused its media campaign on the civilian victims from the Israeli side to justify war crimes against Palestinian civilians, based on the principle of "tit for tat and more," meaning that since Hamas killed Israeli civilians, it is Israel's right to kill Palestinian civilians. At the same time, it tried to keep the devastating military blow the Gaza brigade received in the shadows, focusing on the idea that Hamas's attack was fundamentally against civilians.

The Israeli response towards civilians was greater than any expectation, compared to all previous wars, supported by several encouraging factors; first, absolute support within Israel, where there was complete national consensus on responding with a comprehensive war, and incitement against Palestinian civilians as participants in the attack.

The absolute American support, moral, military, and economic, as well as the support and sympathy from the West and internationally at the beginning of the war with the Israeli narrative led by Netanyahu, which proved to be mostly media fodder to justify extermination, such as "the rape of women and mass slaughter of children and hanging them on laundry lines."

Netanyahu exploited what is called "fighting terrorism," agreed upon with most Arab countries, especially given the Egyptian regime's poor relationship with Hamas, which it sees as an extension or branch of the hostile Muslim Brotherhood.

Both the Biden and Trump administrations gave all the required time and unlimited support to what was dubbed "finishing the mission." Biden awaited the destruction of Hamas and its surrender, while Trump added his approval of the displacement plan, launching what he called the "Gaza Riviera." Additionally, Arab, Islamic, and European countries offered all the necessary time to the occupation army and support to complete the mission.

However, the occupation army faced fierce resistance that exceeded all expectations in its capacity to endure and continue inflicting losses on the occupation army, especially since the resistance had no choice but confrontation or death in all cases.

The delay in concluding the war, thanks to the resistance’s steadfastness first, alongside the Yemeni player that paralyzed navigation towards Eilat, as well as the war in southern Lebanon, and Iran’s entry into a brief but devastating round all contributed to the start of global reactions to the atrocities of extermination, leading to increasing protests, especially in Europe and even in Canada, Australia, and America. There was also a notable unrest in Morocco with unprecedented demonstrations, both social from one side and political rejecting normalization and supporting Palestine from the other side, which transformed into a concerning situation for all the regional systems.

The Sisi regime initially rejected displacement at the war's outset. It is concerned with eliminating Hamas, but it cannot be a partner in displacing Palestinians, as this would cause it troubles, both from the oppressed Egyptian populace under repression and from the displaced themselves. Netanyahu's announcement of plans to annex the West Bank further complicated matters; the eastern bank of the Jordan felt the threat too, and his intervention in southern Syria raised red flags for everyone regarding the seriousness of Netanyahu's pursuit of the "Greater Israel" project.

The Freedom and Resilience flotillas have turned into a focal point of struggle and a beacon for the free people of the world, increasing Israel’s isolation.

The ongoing recognitions of the State of Palestine, leaving the UN hall during Netanyahu's speech, and finally Trump's desire for a Nobel Peace Prize, alongside the rising protests within Israel... all these factors led to forcing Netanyahu to accept a ceasefire.

The question now is: How will matters proceed after the upcoming Sharm El-Sheikh conference? And how will the known, disputed, and secret clauses of the agreement be implemented?

Both Hamas and the fascist Israeli government were mistaken in their calculations, believing they could continue extermination before the eyes of the world and succeed in emptying the Gaza Strip of its inhabitants.