Israeli Estimates: Iran's Response to the Southern Suburb Attack Currently Unlikely

SadaNews - Israel expects Hezbollah to respond to the bombing of the southern suburb of Beirut by escalating attacks on Israeli targets, while the chances of Iran carrying out a direct attack against Israel remain less likely at this stage, amid ongoing security alertness while keeping the instructions for the home front unchanged.

According to Israeli media, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a mini-security session on Sunday evening with Security Minister Israel Katz and security agency leaders to discuss the implications of the airstrike on the southern suburb of Beirut and the possibilities of escalation from Hezbollah or Iran.

The newspaper "Yedioth Ahronoth" quoted an Israeli security official acknowledging that the security institution does not know if Iran will carry out its threats following the attack, but it currently estimates that the likelihood of a direct Iranian attack is still low.

The official added: "We do not know if Iran will attack. We estimate that it will not, but let it attack," indicating Israel's readiness to resume war against Iran and move towards a new regional escalation in the event of an Iranian attack.

The official mentioned that the airstrike on the southern suburb represents, from an Israeli perspective, "a change in the equation" with Hezbollah, stressing that Israel will deal with any future attack from Lebanon by targeting Hezbollah sites in Beirut.

He stated: "The equation has changed. From now on, if Israel is attacked, we will strike in Beirut. We have no restrictions in this regard." He clarified that the airstrike was coordinated in advance with the US administration, and that the United States "understands the Israeli logic based on responding to any fire from Lebanon by targeting Hezbollah sites in the southern suburb of the Lebanese capital."

In the same vein, Channel 13 reported that the Israeli Air Force has significantly increased the deployment of warplanes and drones in Lebanese airspace in anticipation of any possible response, while security estimates suggest that the most likely scenario is an increase in missile or drone attacks from Hezbollah, rather than a direct attack from Iran.

The channel added that the Israeli army has kept the home front instructions unchanged after assessing the situation, while security agencies continue to monitor developments and prepare for various potential scenarios.

In contrast, Iranian threats rose following the attack on the suburb. The spokesperson for the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee of the Iranian parliament, Ibrahim Ridaei, stated that Tehran will deliver a "decisive and painful response" to the Israeli attack, calling for "monitoring the skies over the occupied territories tonight."

The Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, also escalated his rhetoric against Israel and the United States, considering that Israel "does not abide by a ceasefire and does not believe in dialogue," adding that "the maritime blockade on Iran and the US green light to Israel turn American and Israeli bases and assets in the region into legitimate targets."

In Washington, Channel 12 quoted a US official confirming that the United States supports "Israel's right to defend itself," holding Hezbollah "exclusively responsible" for the continuation of combat actions. He stated that the party has two options: "Either continue a senseless war or allow for the return of the displaced and the reconstruction of Lebanon," as he put it.

The US official added that "all weapons in Lebanon must be in the hands of the Lebanese government," accusing Hezbollah of using civilian structures and private homes to store weapons, according to his claim.

These estimates come hours after the Israeli airstrike on the southern suburb of Beirut, which Israel said targeted a Hezbollah headquarters, marking the first attack of this kind on the suburb since the recent understandings reached through US mediation regarding a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, amid fears that the current escalation could lead to a broader confrontation on the northern front.