U.S. Intelligence Estimates Reveal Resilience of Iranian Missile Arsenal

Translation SadaNews: The New York Times reports that recent U.S. intelligence estimates have shown that Iran has regained operational capability to access 30 out of 33 missile launch sites along the Strait of Hormuz, which sharply contrasts with statements made by President Donald Trump regarding the "destruction of the Iranian army."

According to the report, Iran has restored about 70% of its mobile missile launch platforms and 70% of its missile arsenal that it possessed before the outbreak of war. Additionally, it has managed to reactivate around 90% of the underground storage and launch facilities located across the country, where these facilities are currently operating "partially or fully," according to intelligence estimates.

The new assessments reveal that Trump and his military advisors have overestimated the extent of damage that the U.S. military could inflict on Iranian missile sites while underestimating Iran's ability to recover and endure. One reason for this situation stems from a tactical decision made by U.S. commanders during the war, as the Pentagon, due to a shortage of bunker-busting bombs, chose to plug many openings instead of fully destroying the sites and the missiles within them. Although some bunker-buster bombs were used against underground facilities in Iran, sources indicated that military decision-makers were cautious in their use, as they were reserved for potential conflicts in Asia with North Korea and China.

The report indicates that the U.S. military used about 1,100 long-range stealth cruise missiles during the war, nearly exhausting its stockpile. It also launched over 1,000 Tomahawk missiles, a number that exceeds ten times the annual purchases of the Pentagon. In addition, more than 1,300 Patriot missiles were used, a figure that equates to over two years of production at the 2025 rate. These numbers suggest that the United States will need years to replenish its stock of these weapons.

The newspaper notes that Lockheed Martin currently produces about 650 Patriot missiles annually and plans to increase production to 2,000 missiles per year. However, this task is complex, as the rocket engine industry cannot scale up as quickly as Trump demands, placing the U.S. administration in the face of significant challenges in maintaining the readiness of its defense and offensive arsenals amid ongoing tensions.