Is Trump Rushing Towards a Ground Invasion of Iran Despite Its Catastrophic Costs?

SadaNews - Amid the complexity of diplomatic efforts regarding the crisis with Iran, and the increasing frequency of mutual threats, indicators are rising that U.S. President Donald Trump may be on the verge of making a significant decision to resort to a ground invasion option against Tehran, in an attempt to end a conflict that has increasingly burdened him both domestically and internationally.

While the foreign ministers of Pakistan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt met in Islamabad yesterday as part of an initiative to reduce tensions, the American warship "USS Tripoli" arrived at the head of a force comprising about 3,500 U.S. troops and Marines, along with transport planes and attack fighters.

Trump, the "narcissistic and reckless", recognizes the dangers of ground intervention, but it is impossible for him to back down from his "illegal" war.

The Washington Post reported, citing unnamed American officials, that the Pentagon is preparing to launch a potential ground operation in Iran, which may aim to occupy the Iranian island of Khark.

This military move raises serious questions about whether the President will leave diplomacy behind and rush into repeating the disastrous experiences of Iraq and Afghanistan, dragging the region into a long-term crisis.

According to a report published by the British newspaper iPaper, and a scathing article in The Guardian, the President is likely to rush toward the ground invasion option through targeted operations, as he sees it as the only way out of the political and economic predicament he has placed himself in, especially with the ongoing closure of the vital Strait of Hormuz.

Hormuz Tightens the Noose

Guardian columnist Simon Tisdall believes that Trump is aware of the dangers of ground intervention, but it is impossible for him to retract from his "illegal" war, and it is "ridiculous" for people to think that a President like him would take the negotiation option seriously, as expressed in the article.

The writer criticized Trump with biting descriptions, referring to his insistence that the war is nearing its end even though reality proves otherwise, as Iran continues to fight, Israel continues to bomb, Gulf states are targeted, and the main dilemma is that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

Since Trump has not paved the way for any real negotiations - it is noted here that Iran accused him of bombing it while he speaks of negotiations - the President may find himself compelled to escalate militarily, otherwise, he will remain stuck in the waters of Hormuz "without a paddle" while the world blames him, according to the article.

Experts interviewed by iPaper reached a similar conclusion, noting that Trump simply "cannot end the war now" with the closure of the strait, which is one of the essential arteries for international trade.

However, the experts also warned that ground war would escalate the conflict, which could lead to dire consequences that harm the global economy even more.

Tisdall confirmed that Iran is aware of the political cost of war, and will exploit this by continuing to refuse Trump's "absurd" 15-point plan, while pushing instead for a resolution of the war on its own terms, which may lead to a clash with Washington.

The Iran Trap

In this context, Fawaz Gerges, a professor of international relations at the London School of Economics and Political Science, told iPaper that any ground intervention would mean America falling into the "Iran trap".

He added that Tehran has ground forces capable of turning the conflict into a long and costly war of attrition.

Thus, any ground operation would have effects beyond Iranian borders, leading to a radical escalation where a war of attrition would be the worst possible scenario for Washington and its allies in the Gulf, Lebanon, and Israel, according to Gerges.

Escalation could also destabilize regional countries such as Egypt, Jordan, and Syria due to inflation and energy shortages, the expert cautioned, deepening the disaster.

Strategic Mistake

Tisdall warned that any ground operation would mean inevitable fatalities among Americans, and escalation could develop rapidly such that U.S. forces would call for supplies, thus completing the components of the disaster and bringing the region closer to repeating the Afghanistan and Iraq scenarios.

The writer turned with discontent to another option that the White House was evaluating, which is sending special forces into Iranian territory to extract uranium. Tisdall described that as "almost suicidal" and a "real nightmare".

Tisdall believes that Trump is not completely blind to these risks, but the continuous stimulation by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for war, and the White House's adherence to the 15-point conditions – which, in the writer's opinion, amount to "total surrender" – prevent the conflict from stopping.

The writer mocked the American President, saying that Netanyahu pushed him to go ahead with the war and then abandoned him, as neither is he seeking to save him politically, nor does he cease bombing "everything in sight".

He added: "Oh, naive President Trump! You believed Israel's promises of a quick victory."

In conclusion, the analyses indicate that U.S. military movements in the region are not stemming from a disinterested desire to give the President "as many options as possible" – which is what the Pentagon told The Washington Post when asked about the movements of the Tripoli ship – but may indicate an imminent ground escalation.

Source: iPaper + Guardian