Israeli Military Estimates: Ground Incursion in Lebanon Will Not Stop Hezbollah's Rockets

SadaNews - Israeli military sources emphasized that the ground incursion into southern Lebanon will not succeed in preventing Hezbollah from carrying out missile attacks on Israeli targets, claiming that the goal of the ground operations is to push Hezbollah elements away from the border area. This was reported by the newspaper "Haaretz" on Monday evening, quoting Israeli military and security sources, amid calls from ministers and Knesset members to escalate the war on Lebanon and launch a wide ground maneuver to halt rocket fire on Israel. According to Israeli military estimates, the ground operation may help reduce the rate of rocket launches but will not be able to stop them completely; noting that the Israeli broadcasting authority had indicated that Tel Aviv had decided to demolish the border villages in Lebanon. The military sources added that the operational goal of this ground incursion in southern Lebanon is fundamentally to thwart the potential infiltration of Hezbollah elements into Israeli territory or to launch anti-tank missiles directly towards towns near the border. Israeli security agencies consider that "achieving long-term calm for the residents of northern Israel will not be accomplished by maintaining large forces within Lebanese territory." They stated that achieving this requires a political settlement including negotiations with the Lebanese government and enhancing the capabilities of the Lebanese army. In related news, estimates within the Israeli security agencies indicate that Hezbollah still possesses about 15,000 rockets and drones. These estimates state that most of the rockets are medium-range, with a range of approximately 50 kilometers. However, the party also possesses hundreds of long-range rockets capable of threatening most areas in Israel. Despite security and political officials stressing that Iran forms the central front in the war, estimates within the Israeli military indicate that the Lebanese front will become the main front after the war with Iran concludes. In this context, the Israeli army continues to significantly reinforce its forces in the northern command, and during the past few days, its troops have begun a ground incursion deep into Lebanese territory. These forces are currently stationed along the second village line in southern Lebanon. Military officials stated that the current operations aim to restore the situation to what it was before the previous ceasefire in November 2024. During that phase, Israeli forces operated in areas south of the Litani River, targeting what they claim are Hezbollah’s infrastructures in villages and open areas. However, Israeli military sources stressed that there is no intention at this stage to re-establish a "security belt" permanently inside Lebanon. They added that the troop deployment is designed to allow for a quick withdrawal if a decision is made by the political level. In a related context, some military sources tried to downplay the statements of Israeli Security Minister Israel Katz, who announced the start of a wide maneuver in Lebanon. These sources stated that the plans approved so far are limited to a restricted entry into Lebanese territory. According to the military narrative, the goal of this entry is to defend border towns in Israel. It also includes targeting what Israel describes as Hezbollah’s infrastructures and weapon depots located several kilometers from the border. The Israeli army is conducting operations within villages and open areas in southern Lebanon. Military sources claimed that these operations followed Israeli intelligence reports regarding the existence of Hezbollah weapons in those areas. The occupying army had previously operated in these villages during the last war, and yet, the sources stated that Israeli forces have once again found large quantities of arms and ammunition. According to Israeli estimates, some of these weapons were concealed in those areas after the previous war.