Israeli Reports: 3 Factors Determine the Duration of the War on Iran

SadaNews - Israeli reports stated this Saturday morning that three criteria may determine the duration of the war on Iran: oil prices, the number of U.S. military casualties, and public opinion within the United States.

This came in a report published by "Channel 12," which reminded that U.S. President Donald Trump had declared that U.S. military operations in Iran would not end with an agreement with Tehran unless there was a "complete surrender of the Iranian regime."

The report referred to what it described as "assessments in both the United States and Israel of increasing fractures within the structure of the regime in Iran."

It also quoted unnamed Israeli political and security sources as estimating that "Iranian officials are not working in full coordination, face difficulties in managing military operations, and are making repeated mistakes."

The report highlights Israeli estimates indicating that Tehran has "not yet been able" to appoint a successor to the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, who was killed at the onset of the war.

The plan proposed by Trump, according to these estimates, involves executing intensive strikes against military infrastructure and institutions affiliated with the Iranian regime, through operations led by the U.S. military alongside the Israeli army. These operations aim to inflict damage on the military structure of the regime, in addition to targeting military industries and the Iranian economy.

The plan also includes, in later stages, as reported by "Channel 12," calls for "the Iranian public to take to the streets," alongside field operations by the CIA, with an expectation of defections occurring within the regime's institutions."

"Unilateral Exit Plan"

In contrast, the report continues, estimates indicate that Trump has a "unilateral exit plan, which could end with a major military operation, after which a victory is declared," even if the regime in Tehran does not fall.

According to these estimates, the duration of the battle may be influenced by three main factors: oil prices, the number of casualties among U.S. forces, and public opinion trends within the United States.