Where Will the Middle Class in Egypt Invest Their Money in 2026?

SadaNews - In the early morning, Ahmed Said, an employee at a government office in Upper Egypt, checks his phone before heading to work, reviewing his account balance and the returns on his bank certificates, which are no longer as they used to be. On the other side of the country, in the heart of the capital, Aya Ahmed, an employee at a private company, sits before her expense notebook, calculating the next month more precisely than usual. Two years ago, she owned some gold, but she sold her savings and turned to bank certificates, benefiting from the high returns at the time. Today, the equation has changed; the return has decreased, and the certificates no longer provide the income she relied on in her calculations, at a time when the yellow metal has surged to historic levels.

Ahmed and Aya belong to the middle class, both facing the same question as 2026 approaches: where will their savings go after the decrease in returns and rising confusion? With successive cuts in interest rates, reduced attractiveness of certificates, and multiple investment alternatives from cash funds and stocks to gold and silver, the middle class enters a new year with no easy answers, and financial decisions that have become more sensitive than ever.

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The Central Bank cut interest rates by 7.25% five times in 2025 to 20% for deposits and 21% for loans. The rates on certificates have dropped multiple times this year, currently ranging between 16% and 18%.

Maturity of investment certificates

In a few days, the maturity of one-year certificates with a fixed monthly return of 23.5% and an annual return of 27% will begin for the second time, with proceeds exceeding one trillion pounds at the National and Egypt Banks, amid both banks' caution about issuing similar certificates at high interest rates.

Bankers and analysts from investment banks provided some advice to the middle class regarding investing their savings in 2026, whether in certificates, treasury bills, funds, real estate, gold, silver, or the returns from them during their talks with "Al Sharq".

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2026 represents a tough test for the middle class in Egypt when directing their savings, after the decline in returns on certificates and deposits, amid the limited experience many have with alternative investment tools such as gold, silver, and real estate.

Cash funds

Amr Al-Afifi, head of research at Thndr Financial Brokerage, said that the preference between bank certificates and cash funds will remain linked to the degree of risk tolerance of the investor.

He believes that cash funds could be the best option in the coming period, especially since they invest in treasury bills and bonds with high current returns, giving them a greater ability to maintain high return levels for a longer time, even if the interest rate cutting cycle begins.

Al-Afifi added in his conversation with "Al Sharq" that the return on cash funds does not decrease as quickly as bank certificates, as a significant portion of their investments is linked to debt instruments until their maturity, which grants the investor a higher degree of relative stability in returns.

Over 16 months, the National and Egypt Banks - the largest banks in the banking sector - collected revenues from issuing one-year certificates with a fixed monthly return of 23.5%, and a 27% payout at maturity, reaching about 1.3 trillion pounds from the start of their issuance on January 4, 2024, until they ceased operation on April 23, 2025.

These certificates caused a portion of customer savings to migrate from private banks to the two government banks to benefit from the highest return offered on savings in Egyptian banks at the time of issuance.

Customer deposits at the National and Egypt Banks - the central bank's arms in implementing its monetary policy - amount to about 9 trillion pounds, equivalent to 60% of the total customer deposits in Egyptian banks, estimated at about 15.32 trillion pounds by the end of last September.

Stocks as the optimal choice

Hani Genie, head of research at the National Bank of Egypt Faros for Financial Brokerage, sees that Egyptian stocks represent the best investment option in the coming year, given the market is undergoing a clear stabilization phase throughout 2025, which is expected to be followed by a recovery phase and gradual rise, the shapes of which have begun to emerge since mid-2025.

Genie clarified, in his talk to "Al Sharq", that the market has largely finished its correction phase and is currently moving within ranges that reflect a relative balance between supply and demand forces, paving the way for a reassessment phase for stocks during the first half of next year, driven by improved economic expectations and the market's absorption of recent monetary and financial changes.

He pointed out that many stocks have started trading at attractive price levels compared to their fair values, opening the door for a new upward wave with an improved risk appetite among investors.

The main Egyptian index has surged about 44% since the beginning of the year. Meanwhile, the gains of some stocks reached approximately 100% over the past year.

Gold

Genie predicts that gold will continue to achieve strong price spikes during the upcoming year, both in terms of spot prices and through investment funds in gold, which have begun to attract increasing interest from major players in the Egyptian market.

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Gold will remain one of the most important hedging tools in light of global uncertainty and fluctuations in international markets, enhancing its attractiveness as a long-term investment vehicle, according to Genie, stressing the importance of diversifying investment portfolios between stocks and gold. Certificates, meanwhile, will rank third during the next year, according to Genie, although what they provide in real yield will be higher than inflation rates, the higher growth opportunities will remain concentrated in both stocks and gold.

Certificates and treasury bills

Sahar El-Demati, former Vice-President of Bank Misr, believes that investing in savings certificates and treasury bills in banks will remain the first option for the middle class due to their nature that prefers low risk.

She added in her conversation with "Al Sharq" that this segment is always looking for an investment that yields a monthly or quarterly return regularly to help cover living costs, which it finds in certificates, especially in light of their lack of experience with other investment havens.

Bank certificates are considered a savings tool with fixed or variable returns, often paid monthly or periodically, and are characterized by ease of purchase and low-risk level. On the other hand, treasury bills are a short-term government debt instrument ranging from 3 months to 12 months, issued at a yield paid at the end of the term, with a relatively higher yield.

Amid a decline in yields by more than half a percentage point, Egypt sold treasury bills worth more than 136 billion pounds, an increase of 81% over the targeted 75 billion. Meanwhile, "central" data showed that the average yield on 9-month treasury bills declined to about 25.51% from 26.04%.

According to Amr Al-Afifi, a large segment of investors will continue to prefer bank certificates as the least risky tool, especially for those who prioritize security even at the cost of a decline in expected future returns.

For his part, Mohamed Abdel Aal, a banking expert, said that most of the money from the middle class will head towards bank certificates and will not prefer to risk investing in gold, silver, or the stock market.

Precious metals and real estate

Ayman Yassin, head of Business Community Group, anticipates that investing in gold and silver will be the best option amid limited alternative tools.

He believes that the current yield on certificates is unsatisfactory for most customers; however, a large segment will continue to invest in them under the pressure of the need for liquidity without risks.

Gold prices achieved historic levels in Egypt during 2025, rising about 55% compared to the end of the previous year, supported by the increase in its global prices due to geopolitical tensions and the Federal Reserve's cut in interest rates.

The ounce recorded its highest level in history at about 4500 dollars, driven by increased demand for safe havens amid expectations of US interest rate cuts and escalating geopolitical tensions. Consequently, the price of 21-carat gold in the local market has risen by over 2000 pounds since the beginning of the year, with an annual growth of 69%.

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As 2026 approaches, neither Ahmed nor Aya are seeking an investment adventure as much as they are looking for a difficult balance between security and return. Bank certificates alone are no longer enough, and risking is no longer a comfortable option. Between this and that, a new map of the middle class's savings in Egypt is taking shape, which may differ between a certificate, a fund, stocks, or gold.