Stalling of Trump's Plan Revives Fears of Gaza Division

SadaNews - Multiple sources told Reuters today, Tuesday, that the likelihood of the Gaza Strip being effectively divided between an area controlled by Israel and another run by Hamas has become increasingly probable, as efforts to push U.S. President Donald Trump's plan to end the war beyond the ceasefire have stalled.

Six European officials with direct knowledge of the efforts to implement the next phase of the plan informed the agency that the plan has effectively stalled, and that reconstruction is now likely to be limited to the Israeli-controlled area.

They warned that this could lead to a division that lasts for years.

Under the first phase of the plan, which came into effect on October 10, the Israeli army currently controls 53 percent of the Mediterranean coastal strip, including most of its agricultural land, along with Rafah in the south, parts of Gaza City, and other urban areas.

Almost all of the strip's population, estimated at about two million, lives cramped in tents and among the rubble of the shattered cities in the remaining areas of the strip under Hamas control.

Photos taken by Reuters using drones in November show catastrophic destruction in northeastern Gaza City following the latest Israeli attack before the ceasefire, which followed months of bombing. The area is now divided between Israeli and Hamas control.

The next phase of the plan includes a further withdrawal of Israel from what is known as the agreed-upon yellow line in Trump's plan, along with the establishment of a transitional authority to govern Gaza, the deployment of a multinational security force aimed at taking over responsibility from the Israeli army, and the disarmament of Hamas and the commencement of reconstruction.

However, the plan does not include any timelines or mechanisms for implementation. At the same time, Hamas refuses to disarm, and Israel rejects any role for the Western-backed Palestinian Authority, while the status of the multinational force remains unclear.

Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi said at a security conference in Manama this month: "We are still working on formulating ideas... everyone wants an end to this conflict, we all want the same outcome. The question is how do we achieve that?".

The yellow line will become the de facto border

In the absence of any significant effort from the United States to break the deadlock, it appears that the yellow line will become the de facto border dividing Gaza indefinitely, according to 18 sources including six European officials and a former U.S. official familiar with the talks.

The United States has drafted a resolution for the United Nations Security Council giving the multinational force and transitional governing body a two-year mandate. However, 10 diplomats reported that governments are still hesitant to commit to sending troops.

They stated that European and Arab countries in particular are unlikely to participate if responsibilities extend beyond peacekeeping, and if the aim involves a direct confrontation with Hamas or other Palestinian factions.

U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance and Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner mentioned last month that reconstruction funds could begin to flow quickly to the Israeli-controlled area even without moving to the next phase of the plan, based on the idea of creating model areas for some Gaza residents to live in.

Michael Wahid Hana, director of the U.S. program at the International Crisis Group, noted that such U.S. proposals suggest that the reality of the divided sector on the ground threatens to become a "much longer-term issue."

A U.S. State Department spokesman pointed out that while there has been "enormous progress" in moving forward Trump's plan, there is still more work to be done, without responding to questions about whether reconstruction will be limited to the Israeli-controlled area.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that Israel does not intend to reoccupy or manage the Gaza Strip, although ministers from the far-right in his government have called for the reinstatement of settlements that were dismantled in 2005.

The military also rejected such calls for permanent control over the strip or direct oversight of civilians in Gaza. Instead, Netanyahu committed to maintaining a buffer zone within Gaza, along the border, to prevent any recurrence of the attack led by Hamas in October 2023, which was followed by the outbreak of war.

Yellow concrete blocks mark the line

Israeli forces have placed large yellow concrete blocks to demarcate the withdrawal line, and are currently building infrastructure on the side of Gaza under their control.

In the Shuja'iyya neighborhood of Gaza City, the army took journalists last week to a military site that was fortified following the ceasefire.

Satellite images show that steep hills have been formed from soil excavation and building rubble to create a protected observation point for soldiers, with a new paving layer laid.

Israeli military spokesman Nadav Shoshani stated that soldiers are present there to prevent militants from crossing into the area controlled by Israel, adding that Israel will move further away from the line once Hamas meets the conditions, which include disarmament, and once an international security force is in place.

Shoshani added: "Once Hamas commits to what it needs to do in the agreement, we will be ready to move forward." An Israeli government official, responding to written questions for this coverage, stated that Israel is committed to the agreement and accused Hamas of stalling.

Hamas also released the last twenty living hostages held in Gaza, along with handing over the remains of 24 deceased hostages, as part of the first phase of the plan. The remains of four additional hostages are still in Gaza.

In the past few weeks, Hamas has reaffirmed its presence in areas it still controls, having killed members of rival factions. It provided security personnel and civilian employees to guard food sites and clear roads through crumbling farmland using old excavators, as shown in a video by Reuters.

German Foreign Minister Johan Wadeful stated at the Manama conference: "We truly need to fill the security vacuum in the Gaza Strip," urging an acceleration of efforts, warning that a return of Hamas could lead to renewed Israeli military operations in Gaza.

Hamas spokesman Hazem Qassem stated: "We clearly say that Hamas will not be in the ruling scene of the Gaza Strip the next day, and this has been agreed upon. There will be a community-based reference committee made up of independents that will govern all matters of the strip. Therefore, we seek to take away the excuses from all sides to hinder reconstruction. All areas of the Gaza Strip should be equal in reconstruction, and Hamas is ready to hand over governance from now so that the reconstruction process for Gaza can begin, which is a right for the people of Gaza."

Two European officials and a Western diplomat mentioned that among the ideas being discussed is whether Hamas can disarm under international supervision instead of handing over arms to Israel or any other foreign force.

European and Arab countries want the Palestinian Authority, based in the West Bank, and its police force to return to Gaza along with the multinational force to take over responsibility from Hamas. Thousands of Palestinian Authority officers trained in Egypt and Jordan are ready to deploy, but Israel opposes any intervention from the Palestinian Authority.

Reconstruction under Israeli occupation

The six European officials stated that if there is no significant shift in Hamas or Israeli positions or U.S. pressure on Israel to accept a role for the Palestinian Authority and a path to establishing a Palestinian state, they do not expect Trump's plan to progress beyond the ceasefire.

British Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper said at the Manama conference: "Gaza should not remain stuck in a no-man's-land between peace and war."

Salih Abu Amr (62 years old), a resident of Gaza City, stated that if no progress is made in disarming Hamas and reconstruction efforts begin on the other side of the yellow line, people might consider moving there. However, he added that the reality of a divided Gaza is hard to imagine.

He questioned whether everyone would be able to move to that area or if Israel would object to some entering. He asked: "Will they also divide families between the good and the bad?".

It is still unclear who will finance the reconstruction of the Israeli-occupied areas in Gaza, as Gulf countries refuse to intervene without the participation of the Palestinian Authority and without a path for establishing a Palestinian state, which Israel opposes. Reconstruction costs are estimated at around $70 billion.

Any actual division of the Gaza Strip would hinder Palestinian aspirations for an independent state that includes the West Bank, and would exacerbate the humanitarian disaster for a people lacking shelter and relying almost entirely on aid for their livelihood.

Safadi said: "We cannot accept the fragmentation of Gaza. Gaza is one, and Gaza is part of the occupied Palestinian territory."

Farzin Agapikian Shahin, Palestinian Minister of State for Foreign Affairs and Expatriates, rejected the division of Gaza, stating that the Palestinian Authority is prepared to take "full national responsibility."

In a statement responding to questions from Reuters, she said: "There can be no real reconstruction or lasting stability without full Palestinian sovereignty over the strip."