Israeli Writer Warns: Settlement Steps Threaten to Quietly Determine the Fate of the West Bank

SadaNews - Michael Milshtein, a researcher and former officer in the Israeli intelligence service, who heads the Palestinian Studies Forum at the Moshe Dayan Center at Tel Aviv University, pointed to what he deemed a "silent tsunami" led by the Israeli government in the West Bank. He noted that this shift is represented by settlement projects such as the "E1" plan near occupied Jerusalem, alongside general settlement expansion and steps promoted by the Smotrich party within the ruling coalition.

In his article published in the "Yedioth Ahronoth" newspaper, Milshtein warned that these policies are causing profound changes in the political and demographic realities of the West Bank gradually and out of the limelight, amid a complete lack of awareness among the Israeli public about their long-term impact.

The writer cautioned that Israel will face the peak of the counter "tsunami" next September at the United Nations meeting, which will see an expansion in the recognition of the Palestinian state, leading to significant strategic and political repercussions for Israel both domestically and internationally.

Milshtein believes that this "silent tsunami" carried out by the occupation government does not typically appear in daily news, but threatens to reshape the political and social landscape in the West Bank, reflecting a shift towards a one-state policy under expanded Israeli control, with substantial demographic and legal changes, without consulting the Israeli public or considering global opinion.

The former Israeli officer points to Minister Bezalel Smotrich's announcement last week about the approval of construction plans in the "E1" area near Jerusalem, confirming that this step is "an additional nail in the coffin of the idea of a Palestinian state."

Smotrich's announcement, according to the writer, sparked relatively limited responses within Israel, which was preoccupied with the military confrontation in Gaza and the numerous internal divisions. However, the international arena reacted with strong condemnation, with several countries friendly to Israel participating, revealing the fragility of the balance between Israeli domestic politics and rising international pressures.

Milshtein emphasizes that one party in the coalition, namely Smotrich's Finance Ministry party, has begun to impose its agenda on the entire government without a clear stance from "Likud" or a distinction from the hardline party's vision.

In this context, the writer points out that the Finance Minister has considered since the beginning of the war that there is a historic opportunity to reshape the "DNA" of the West Bank through settlement expansion, reaching a point of "no return" that would prevent any future separation even if the current government falls.

He states that what is happening in the West Bank also serves as a model for what could happen in the Gaza Strip, where proponents of dramatic change seek to impose a new reality without public consultation under the guise of a "realistic strategy" and "lessons learned from October 7," benefiting from abnormal political conditions that allow for significant changes on the ground.

Milshtein also points out that the trend towards a "one-state" solution between the river and the sea, as outlined in the resolution plan published by Smotrich in 2017, "will threaten the traditional Zionist vision, create a reality of ongoing conflict, and lead to international isolation due to what resembles apartheid."

He asserts that this change is happening quietly, with a clear disregard for previous strategic warnings about the possibility of a third intifada or the collapse of the Palestinian Authority.

Ignoring International Pressure

The author of the article points out that Israeli decision-makers tend to ignore international pressure, including restrictions on the travel of ministers and Knesset members, considering that the criticisms stem from anti-Semitism or support for extremism and terrorism, but he emphasizes that this approach overlooks the fact that the fundamental disagreement with most countries in the world relates to Israeli policies towards the Palestinians, and is not merely a misunderstanding or bias.

According to the former Israeli officer, the symbolic actions and decisions taken in favor of the Palestinians are not the central event; rather, the actual change lies in the economic restrictions, scientific research relationships, and education, which are beginning to show signs now and will affect the lives of all Israelis, including educational opportunities and international cooperation in the West Bank.

Milshtein also points out a gap in Israeli public opinion regarding the Palestinian issue, as citizens do not receive a clear explanation of the government's position, which fluctuates between hardline policies sometimes represented in symbols like "Greater Israel," and more softened stances shown in international visits, such as Netanyahu's recent comments about self-governing Palestinians.

The writer believes that this contradiction creates a state of ambiguity among the public and is exploited to unify Israelis around leadership, despite deep disagreements over settlement and expansion policies.

Betting on American Support

Regarding betting on American support, the author sees that it relies on two fundamental assumptions: first, that Washington will always stand by Israel and support it even when taking steps of annexation or expansion in the West Bank and Gaza. He believes that "this assumption diminishes the space for Israeli political maneuvering and harms its relations with key Western countries, as seen with France and Australia, and does not take into account potential changes in American policies post-Trump administration."

The second assumption is the lack of need to consider global public opinion, reflecting an implicit belief that international criticisms can be tolerated in exchange for achieving the vision of "Greater Israel." This approach uses biblical and ideological symbols that may raise doubts in the world about the nature of the state and the changes being made on the ground.

Milshtein asserts that proponents of change attack the makers of the Oslo Agreements and past disengagement, considering that they violated the will of the people. In fact, proponents today impose their vision without any public referendum or elections, reflecting a transgression of core democratic values.

The article concludes that the consequences of the "silent tsunami" have already begun to materialize, but the peak is still ahead for Israel, especially next month with rising international pressures. It also points out that transformations in the West Bank represent a highly dangerous warning about the future of the one state, which could quietly come to fruition and lead to a genuine strategic crisis.