Stalled Path for the Second Phase of the Ceasefire Agreement in Gaza

SadaNews - Discussions continue away from the limelight regarding the second phase of the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, but without any significant progress.

While violations of the ceasefire, in effect since October 10, are still being recorded, questions arise about the reasons for the slowdown in moving towards the second phase of the agreement concluded based on a plan proposed by U.S. President Donald Trump.

Where does the agreement stand?

After U.S. pressure to end the genocide in the Gaza Strip, an agreement was reached between Israel and Hamas, coming into effect two years after the war began following Hamas's attack on October 7, 2023.

However, both sides exchange accusations of violating the ceasefire almost daily, hindering the plan suggested by Trump in September, of which the ceasefire represents only the first phase.

Trump's plan stipulates the establishment of a ceasefire, the withdrawal of Israeli forces, the installation of a new administration for Gaza, and the reconstruction of the war-devastated strip.

Under the first phase of the agreement, Israeli forces redeployed beyond what is known as the "yellow line," granting them control over more than 50% of Gaza's land. This phase also stipulates that Hamas must release all prisoners in its custody, both living and deceased. It also includes an increase in humanitarian aid entering the besieged Gaza Strip.

Hamas had held 48 prisoners in Gaza, of whom 20 alive were released around October 13. Only the body of one prisoner remains in their custody.

Reasons for the stalling?

Many analysts point out that the previous ceasefire collapsed in March even before its second phase began.

The Israeli government demands the return of the last prisoner’s body as a condition for starting indirect negotiations on the second phase of the agreement mediated by Egypt, the United States, Qatar, and Turkey.

A conference for the reconstruction of Gaza focusing on humanitarian issues is set to be held in Egypt, but the date has not been specified yet.

The slow negotiation process is largely attributed to vague points included in Trump's plan.

Michael Milstein, a researcher at Tel Aviv University, states that Tel Aviv "does not want to think about what the post-war phase could look like."

In November 2025, the Security Council adopted resolution 2803 supporting Trump’s plan, which calls for the formation of an "International Transitional Authority" for Gaza known as the "Peace Council," overseen by the U.S. president.

The plan envisions the establishment of an "International Stabilization Force" that will work on the "permanent disarmament of the non-official armed group," including Hamas, which refuses to disarm but without setting a final deadline for that to occur.

All these issues are sparking widespread controversy in Israel and among the Palestinians, particularly regarding how they will be implemented on the ground.

What are the political consequences?

While it is reported that Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey will be among the countries participating in the stabilization force in Gaza, Israeli officials reiterate their rejection of any Turkish role in it.

Milstein asserts that "Netanyahu and (his security minister) Israel Katz emphasize their opposition to the entry of Turks into the Gaza Strip, but if Trump sees Turkey as a good partner for the international force, that will happen," considering that "Israel has lost its margin of maneuver, and we are far from what Netanyahu demanded two months ago."

For its part, factions continued to work under Egyptian sponsorship to form a "Palestinian independent technocratic committee composed of qualified Palestinians from the Gaza Strip," which is supposed to "manage the affairs of the strip" under the supervision of the Peace Council, according to resolution 2803.

However, Palestinian political expert Mukhaymar Abu Saada believes that "the names that have been approved meet Israel's requirements, not those of Hamas or Fatah."

What can be expected?

According to Joost Hilterman from the International Crisis Group, "at the moment, we are only talking about maintaining the ceasefire, and we are witnessing slight progress, but this process is not yet over."

He adds that "the determination of the Trump administration could raise some optimism."

The successive visits by U.S. officials to Israel in recent months indicate strong pressure on it to continue its commitment to the ceasefire, according to Abu Saada, who observes that "the situation remains unclear... because Hamas is also not clear about what it wants."