US-Iran Negotiations: What Comes After Istanbul...Cooling or Justification?

All eyes, news, and estimates are focused on Istanbul where last-minute negotiations begin and end on Friday.

The question here is: Are we facing cooling or justification?

To answer this question, we must consider the factors that directly influence cooling on one hand, and those that are seeking justification on the other.

I point out that the developments shaking the region, along with the American mobilizations and Israeli preparations, relate to two axioms known to every political science specialist: the first is that it has become clear to everyone that the mindset in Trump's administration and the global Zionism regarding Iran is a settled matter in terms of strategic and geopolitical perspective. This perspective can be summarized as follows: "There is no place for Iran, the resistance ally of the Chinese giant and the Russian bear, in the outlined plan for the West Asia and North Africa region"; the second is related to the concept of finalizing open files, particularly in "Lebanon" and "Gaza", which is impossible without cutting off the head "Iran" or, at the very least, fully subjugating it to American will and dominance, acknowledging the Israeli captain as the primary influence in the region.

Let us return to what was mentioned above regarding the concepts of cooling and justification and the factors influencing each, where we find that there are internal and external factors that strongly impose themselves on the aforementioned concepts, to the degree of almost equality, but they slightly favor justification due to President Trump's character, which does not accept division and is grammatically prohibited from declension.

The external factors for cooling stem from regional states allied with Washington, which firmly believe they will become embroiled in a war they do not want—a war that will result in nothing but further subjugation to Israeli influence; thus, the margin for maneuvering in the relationship with the American ally will shrink to the degree reaching zero. Therefore, these countries seek an exit to stop the rush towards a point of no return.

Here, the "Turkish" negotiation plan emerged, exploring each file separately, starting with the nuclear issue and offering it at Trump’s altar as a gift to stop escalation, whereby "Iran" agrees to transfer 60% enriched uranium to "Russia", and to freeze uranium enrichment on its territory for several years in exchange for forming a regional and international framework for civil uranium enrichment, of course alongside complete monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency of the entire Iranian nuclear file.

These proposals would be acceptable to "Iran", which is willing to fully engage with them, but what is the counter?!!! What will Iran gain?!!! This is the subject of negotiation on Friday; in other words, the condition for Iranian approval will have a counter, and at the very least, lifting sanctions on oil and gas exports and financial transaction-related sanctions, as well as allowing "Iran" access to its frozen funds. However, for the Americans, approval might be granted only if Iran agrees to two matters: the first is to sell its oil and gas in dollars, and the second is Iran's agreement to start negotiations on other issues, "ballistic missiles, and support for its allies in the region".

If the success of the regional pressure factor on President Trump and Iran is linked to what we mentioned above.

As for the internal American factor for cooling, it is represented by the absence of consensus within the White House on going to war, especially since the concept of a limited, decisive strike has become unfeasible and will not achieve any of the declared objectives. It will not topple the regime, nor will it halt the nuclear program, and it certainly will not stop Iran's strategic plans for missile manufacturing or support for its allies in the region. Additionally, the Iranian threats to transform a limited strike into a comprehensive regional war have ended the plan for a limited strike.

However, this does not prevent thoughts of war in President Trump's mindset; he wants something tangible through which to declare victory. Therefore, the internal American factor was linked to the external regional factor, and the negotiation plan in Turkey was proposed on Friday as a last resort that will yield either cooling or justification.

As for those looking for justification internally and externally, they see that Friday's negotiations are merely additional time to complete the mobilizations and coordinate steps for military action so that it shifts from limited to continuous strikes over several days or weeks, as well as to create a balance between defense and attack. Thus, we noticed a focus on installing American air defenses in regional countries to increase their reassurances and alleviate pressure caused by the seismic tremors striking their interiors, alongside augmenting the target bank and awaiting better weather free from winter.

Internally in America, the situation is almost entirely linked to President Trump, who represents the dominant part of the deep state in all its branches, led by the Zionist-Angelic lobby. He will not retract his decision without at least subjugating the Iranian regime. In other words, he wants to exhaust diplomacy to increase internal support. Certainly, if diplomacy succeeds in subjugating the Iranian regime, it would be considered the greatest achievement for President Trump, achieving all his objectives without firing a single bullet; however, there is an influential internal factor pressuring President Trump to treat the upcoming negotiations with Iran as a "justification" for a strike, regardless of their outcomes, and this factor is the scandals known as the "Epstein File".

The decisive and powerful external factor pushing toward war with "Iran" is the state of "Israel", which is willing to agree to support the American-Iranian negotiations based on its four conditions: "Halting uranium enrichment, transferring enriched uranium, setting conditions and monitoring for ballistic missile manufacturing regarding their range and number, and halting support for Iran's allies"; otherwise, it will not only refuse to agree, but will inevitably strike "Iran" alone, leading to drawing the "United States" in, at the very least, for the defense of "Israel", as it will not leave it alone while being the custodian of its security according to the American national security strategy outlined by the Trump administration a few weeks ago.

Thus, the external and internal factors for "cooling" or "justification" regarding the potential strike are taking their time in the equation of interaction within a specified timeframe, and the nature of the interaction between these factors will tilt the result towards either cooling or justification; and when we talk about the interaction equation, we mean, first and foremost, the concept of "ego" in President Trump as a key "element" in this equation, implying clearly that overcoming the "Epstein" story, if possible, is related to announcing complete victory that is flawless either peacefully or in a bad way waging "war", as President Trump says.

There is no doubt that the visit of "Witkoff" to "Israel" today is linked to an attempt to convince "Netanyahu, the army, and the Mossad" that President Trump has not abandoned the military option, and that dealing with the negotiations will not be done in a package manner, but rather by discussing each file separately, with the beginning being the "nuclear file" so that if there is agreement, discussions on other files can be met in other negotiation rounds, in an attempt at "Witkoff's" assurances to "Israel" that America will not abandon files related to ballistic missiles and support for Iran's allies, and that there will be no agreement on the nuclear file without "Iran" committing to discuss other files. but the question remains, will "Netanyahu" and the "military institution" and "security" be convinced of this?!!! I personally do not believe so, as the American mobilizations in the region have become an opportunity for Israel that cannot be compensated for.

Lastly, it is necessary to outline an unannounced and uncertain piece of information about its accuracy, which I personally do not believe exists, but it must be mentioned, where it is said that "Netanyahu sought through President Putin to neutralize Israel from the impact of a potential American war behind America's back"; of course, for me this is not possible not only due to the existing strategic "American-Israeli" alliance but also because the idea of directing a strike against "Iran" to be either American or joint was proposed by "Netanyahu", which President Trump later adopted. Moreover, the American abandonment of its conditions regarding the missile program and what is called "Iran's regional influence", considering them demands from its regional allies and reservations regarding the "2015 Agreement" has ended due to Gulf pressures to avoid the option of war, is also a somewhat exaggerated story, because there are political leadership elites in regional countries that informed Washington and President Trump that abandoning those demands would empower "Iran" in the region and portray it as victorious even over American will.

In conclusion, based on the above and in my personal estimation, I would indicate that scientific thinking and traditional estimates with a president like "Trump" do not apply to the landscape in our region; I have previously said and still maintain, this region should become a lake where American ships sail under an Israeli captain, and that no geopolitical change can occur with the presence of the revolutionary system in "Iran", and it is impossible to compete with "China" while a country the size of "Iran" allies with it, and the siege of "Russia" begins with removing the "system" nail from Iranian geography; "Iran" is a geopolitical pivot for the great powers, hence, its geography must be shattered functionally to prepare it for decomposition, and without that, the region will remain torn by influence, and the American cannot absolutely and completely subjugate it to its influence.

I believe that the decision for war against "Iran" has been made, and its postponement the first time came for operational reasons, while the second time was delayed for political reasons, but as it seems, there is no such thing as a third time; matters will be settled next Friday, and everything will depend on the Iranian response and its readiness to market the victory that President Trump wants and seeks.

Finally, caution is essential, as the region may ignite before reaching Friday, with the fuel for ignition being distinctly Israeli and within the concept of miscalculations due to the density of mobilizations in the region and the caution shown with fingers on the trigger.