Regarding Salaries, the Financial Crisis, and the Start of the School Year... What is Likely?

As the occupation continues to withhold clearance funds for the third consecutive month, the Palestinian National Authority has entered its deepest financial crisis since its establishment, which has started to affect the core of the essential services it provides. The margins for financial action have become extremely narrow, with the public treasury losing the clearance funds that represent 68% of total revenues, and borrowing levels reaching record highs. With the impending start of the school year, the situation (up to this moment) is as follows:

The government is inclined to secure a payment before the start of the new school year, but the available revenues are insufficient, and there seems to be no prospect for the release of clearance funds in the near future. Therefore, the government has officially approached the banking sector with a request for a loan backed by guarantees in the form of checks obtained from local authorities and companies. This request is currently under review by the banks, and a response is expected, likely within the next week. This means that the possibility of salary disbursement is primarily dependent on whether the banks approve this request. As of this moment, there is no confirmed information regarding the salary payment for next week, and there are four possibilities, one of which is more likely to be implemented:

1- The banking sector may grant this loan (perhaps under political pressure), which would allow for the disbursement of a salary payment not exceeding 60% with a minimum of 3,000 shekels. This is the most plausible scenario.

2- The banking sector may refuse to grant the loan, with no breakthroughs in clearance funds and no generous aid arriving (a possible scenario), which would mean that it would not be possible to disburse any percentage of the salary.

3- A breakthrough in clearance funds could occur, at which point we could talk about the possibility of a full salary payment (though this is a very weak possibility), given the serious indications that Smotrich is refusing to respond to requests in this regard.

4- An Arab or non-Arab country might provide extraordinary assistance to help the Palestinian National Authority pay a salary or a portion of it, which also seems unlikely without indicators supporting its occurrence.
Summary:

The financial situation of the Palestinian National Authority is the most complicated ever, and the possibility of disbursing a portion of the salary is contingent upon the banks' approval of a new loan (the decision will be clearer next week). If approved, the percentage will not exceed 60%. If rejected, the situation will be extremely complicated, relying solely on the occurrence of a 'miracle' regarding the transfer of clearance funds or mobilizing exceptional external aid.