Iranian Hardliners Intensify Calls for Nuclear Weapon Possession

SadaNews - The debate within Iran is intensifying regarding whether Tehran should seek to possess a nuclear bomb, amid continuous American-Israeli attacks, as discussions shift from closed circles to a more public and heated controversy, according to Iranian sources.

Data from within the institution indicates that the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei at the beginning of the war on February 28 has strengthened the position of the hardline faction, with increasing influence of the "Revolutionary Guard" in determining the course of nuclear policy, according to two high-ranking Iranian sources who spoke to Reuters.

Although Western countries have long suspected Iran's desire to possess nuclear weapons – or at least the capability to produce them rapidly – Tehran denies this, citing Khamenei's fatwa prohibiting nuclear weapons and its membership in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

One of the sources stated that Iran has not made a decision to change its nuclear doctrine, and there is no official plan to pursue the bomb, yet influential voices within the system have begun to question the current policy and call for its review.

Reuters speculated that the American-Israeli strikes, which occurred amidst negotiations over the nuclear program, may have altered the calculations of some decision-makers; as abandoning the nuclear weapon option or adhering to the treaty are now seen as not yielding clear benefits amid military escalation.

Rising Hardline Rhetoric

Recently, calls have increased within official media for withdrawing from the "Non-Proliferation" Treaty, parallel to the proposition of directly seeking to possess the bomb, an issue that was considered taboo in public discourse until recently.

The "Tasnim" agency, affiliated with the "Revolutionary Guard", published an article calling for a swift withdrawal from the treaty while maintaining a civilian nuclear program.

State media quoted conservative politician Mohammad Javad Larijani, brother of the recently killed Ali Larijani, as calling for Iran's membership in the treaty to be suspended. He stated: "The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty should be suspended. We should form a committee to assess whether the treaty is beneficial for us at all. If it proves beneficial, we will return to it; if not, let them keep it."

Earlier this month, state television aired an interview with conservative commentator Nasser Tarabi who said that public opinion is calling for action towards possessing a nuclear weapon, whether through manufacturing or other means.

Discussion Within Government Institutions

The two sources reported that the nuclear file has become a discussion topic within governance circles, with a clear divergence between the hardline camp, led by the "Revolutionary Guard", and elements within the political elite regarding the feasibility of pursuing the bomb option.

Tehran previously used the threat to withdraw from the "Non-Proliferation Treaty" as a bargaining chip during its lengthy negotiations with the West, without ever acting on it.

The current escalation in discussion is likely an extension of this tactic, at a time when Iran's nuclear and scientific capabilities have been subjected to repeated strikes in recent weeks, alongside previous aerial campaigns conducted by Israel and the United States.

For years, Israel has asserted that Iran is close to acquiring nuclear weapons, citing its progress in uranium enrichment and missile program.

No Official Changes Yet

Analysts believe that Iran has sought over the past years to attain the status of a "threshold state"; that is, possessing the technical capacity to produce nuclear weapons quickly when needed, without officially declaring such possession to avoid international repercussions.

In this context, commanders of the "Revolutionary Guard" had previously warned that threats to the regime's survival might push towards adopting the bomb option, a scenario that is increasingly likely amid the current war.

Khamenei's fatwa prohibiting nuclear weapons was issued in the early 2000s without written formulation and was reaffirmed in 2019.

According to one of the sources, Khamenei's absence, alongside the death of Ali Larijani, who tended to curb the hardliners' momentum, has made it difficult to balance this trend within the system.

Additionally, the continuation of adherence to the fatwa after Khamenei's death remains uncertain, despite expectations that it will remain in place unless overturned by the new leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, who has not appeared publicly since assuming the position.