From State to Unannounced Mandate: An Analysis of the Reality and Future of Venezuela Post-Maduro

SadaNews - A month after the event that marked an unprecedented turning point in contemporary Venezuelan political history, represented by the arrest of President Nicolás Maduro following a rapid American military operation, the repercussions of what transpired are still unfolding at political, military, and economic levels.

Amid the military establishment's total silence and the sharp transformations in the trajectory of relations with Washington, essential questions arise about the nature of the phase Venezuela has entered, and whether the country is heading towards a temporary transitional path or towards redefining its role and position as an economic dependency managed with coercive pragmatism under direct American supervision.

No Sovereignty

On January 30, 2026, the Venezuelan National Assembly unanimously ratified a fundamental amendment to the "Organic Hydrocarbons Law".

In an official statement from the parliamentary presidency, this amendment was described as a "strategic step to modernize the energy sector and attract foreign direct investments to ensure the stability of national production".

However, sociologist Moises Duran told Al Jazeera Net that this amendment completely empties the sovereign character of oil operations, creating the most favorable conditions for multinational oil companies at the expense of national interests.

Duran emphasizes that the Rodríguez regime has realized that its economic survival has structurally depended on alignment with American priorities, creating a state of absolute dependency in which economic policy is defined according to the interests of the White House.

Regarding monetary indicators, data from the Venezuelan central bank showed a relative stability of the bolivar exchange rate (the local currency) at around 450 – 480 bolivars to the dollar at the beginning of February, which Vice President and acting President, Delcy Rodríguez, attributed to the "strict monetary discipline policies implemented by the transitional government".

However, economic expert Manuel Sutherland clarified to Al Jazeera Net that this stability resulted from a coercive deal that led to tripling oil exports directed exclusively to America.

He added: America now directly manages all the oil that leaves Venezuela and enters it, as well as managing payments through a clearing system that allocates resources only for purchasing American goods and services, something the country has not seen since the Spanish colonial era.

Transformation of Discourse and Relationship

The official discourse has shown a noticeable shift in its tone and vocabulary; less than 24 hours after the attack, Rodríguez stated in a televised speech via the official television channel: "Based on our differences, we extend our hand for joint work within a cooperation agenda that ensures prosperity for our peoples".

Duran sees this shift as a condensation of the transition from an anti-imperialism discourse to pragmatism, while still using the legitimacy of the revolution as a security cover.

For his part, political science professor at the University of Solia, Roberto Lopez Sanchez, pointed out in his talk with Al Jazeera Net that this transformation reflects complete subservience to the dictates of President Donald Trump, especially in light of the absence of any official report from the Bolivarian National Armed Forces explaining their inability to respond to the attack on the main military headquarters and the air defense system.

In a brief statement from the Venezuelan Ministry of Defense, they merely stated that the armed forces "are working to ensure public order and support constitutional institutions", which Sanchez considered a surrender without a fight.

The relationship with Washington has shifted from complete severance to explicit mandate; on January 31, the U.S. Chargé d'affaires, Laura Dogu, arrived in Caracas to reopen the diplomatic mission.

The Venezuelan Foreign Ministry stated in an official statement that the meetings aim to "normalize diplomatic relations and enhance channels of dialogue". However, Duran reveals that the American mandate involves implementing the three phases proposed by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio: stability, economic recovery and reconciliation, and then transition.

Duran states: Washington currently manages a triad of powers represented by:

Military superiority.

Flexible sanctions.

Control over oil flows.

This places Rodríguez's government in a condition of structural dependency. Meanwhile, expert Sutherland confirms that America now directly governs the country through a technical office overseeing the execution of instructions.

Under Mandate

On January 7, the national oil company announced in a technical statement the "expansion of strategic partnerships with American companies according to new legal standards that ensure operational efficiency".

Academic Sanchez believes that Delcy Rodríguez is committed to all of Trump's demands in an attempt to buy time and survive until 2028, warning that this acceptance of the mandate has transformed Venezuela into a new neoliberal colonial mandate, where the country's resources are managed by decisions made in Washington and executed in Caracas.

Formally, control is still in the hands of the "Chavismo-Madurismo" bloc after reorganizing its ranks, with Rodríguez leading an interim presidency for 90 days, extendable.

The Venezuelan Supreme Court issued a statement affirming the "constitutional legitimacy of the transitional presidency of Delcy Rodríguez", which Duran considers a confirmation of the continuation of the de facto rule structure.

Duran described the situation as a dictatorship under mandate, where the White House possesses exceptional influence through managing the sanctions regime as a tool of reward and punishment. Under this pressure, the Ministry of Interior released about 320 political prisoners.

Sutherland confirms that this release has allowed intellectuals and those being pursued to emerge from underground work, but it limits the government's capacity for independent decision-making, as the current authority feels its expiration date is approaching if it is subjected to a real electoral path in which it has no chance of winning.

Sanchez stated that Rodríguez controls all public authorities and agencies tasked with selective repression, but this control operates within the margins set by the American guardian party.

Division of the Opposition

The Venezuelan opposition is experiencing a sharp division into three main blocs, according to analysis by Moises Duran:

The first bloc is the "oligarchic opposition" which sees the current circumstances as an opportunity to improve its economic position.

The second bloc is led by Maria Corina Machado, who bets entirely on aligning with Washington as the sole path to change, treating the moment as a scenario that will occur when Trump deems it appropriate.

The third bloc, as a democratic opposition, seeks to restore popular sovereignty away from inherited despotism or imperialist mandate.

Economic expert Sutherland concluded by warning that the central understanding between the guardian power and the authoritarian elite may exclude Venezuelan society from essential decision-making.

Meanwhile, academic Sanchez believes that the recovery of true democracy and the activation of the 1999 Constitution will depend exclusively on the magnitude of popular pressure and civil mobilization capable of imposing citizens' will, away from deals struck in closed rooms that ensure the flow of oil in exchange for silence about the essence of the existing authoritarian regime.