Will the Price of Gold Reach $5000 per Ounce in 2026? And What About Silver?

SadaNews - Despite its recent slump and fluctuations over the past two days, gold enters the year 2026 maintaining strong momentum, after a year that shattered all records, surpassing the $4,000 per ounce mark. While some estimates suggest that the yellow metal could reach $5,000 per ounce if geopolitical tensions continue, the dollar weakens, and the U.S. interest rates keep being lowered, other forecasts indicate a potential decline in momentum in the upcoming phase. Conversely, its runner-up, silver, enjoys positive forecasts supported by industrial demand.
Here is a roundup of the main expectations from investment institutions and global banks regarding the performance of gold and silver within the global economic forecasts for 2026.

World Gold Council

The World Gold Council expects that the outlook for 2026 will be shaped by the continued state of geopolitical-economic disruptions. The fluctuations in gold prices largely reflect a consensus on macroeconomic forecasts, and they may remain confined to a narrow range if current conditions persist unchanged. However, this year's experience suggests that 2026 may bring new surprises.

According to the council, a slowdown in economic growth coupled with additional cuts in interest rates could provide limited gains for gold, while a scenario of deeper slowdowns, combined with escalating global risks, could lead to stronger performance for the yellow metal.

In contrast, successful policies under President Donald Trump to stimulate growth and reduce geopolitical risks may enhance the strength of the dollar, putting pressure on gold prices and pushing them lower.

Morgan Stanley

The bank expects gold to maintain its strength throughout 2026, following consecutive record levels this year. It is likely that demand for actual gold and lower interest rates will support the prices.

JP Morgan

With the increasing search by investors for alternatives to the dollar, the bank expects that gold will receive strong support, after achieving gains exceeding 50% during 2025, likely to see a new strong upward wave in 2026.

In its market outlook report for 2026, issued on December 9, the bank predicted that gold prices would see a strong increase during the next year, reaching around $5,000 per ounce by the fourth quarter, with an annual average estimated at about $4,753 per ounce.

As for silver, the report predicted it would continue to rise in the new year, with the price of an ounce reaching $58 in the fourth quarter of 2026, with an annual average at $56. However, the precious white metal surprised markets with a strong jump on December 11, surpassing the $64 per ounce level.

Goldman Sachs

The bank indicated that gold is likely to continue attracting strong investment flows, supported by macroeconomic imbalances and growing concerns over budget deficits and a weak dollar.

BlackRock

BlackRock views gold as a tactical bet driven by specific factors and does not consider it a long-term hedging tool within investment portfolios.

Deutsche Bank

The bank believes that gold still has the potential to achieve further upward movement in 2026, despite the strong gains recorded in 2025. It expects that demand for the precious metal will remain strong, especially from central banks, with the likelihood of an increased tendency for investors to turn to it amid declining yields on short-term bonds, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold and enhancing its attractiveness.

Barclays

Despite gold prices reaching record levels during 2025, Barclays believes that the yellow metal remains the preferred option for direct exposure to commodities, due to its role in mitigating risks and diversifying portfolios away from the dollar.

Standard Chartered

Manpreet Gill, Chief Investment Officer for the Middle East, Africa and Europe at the bank, predicted in an interview with "Asharq" that gold will continue to perform well in 2026, driven by central bank purchases and the weakness of the dollar.

UBS

UBS expects both gold and silver to have opportunities for further rises in 2026. Gold remains an important hedging tool, supported by central bank purchases, widening fiscal deficits, and ongoing geopolitical risks, while silver benefits from increasing demand in the electronics and solar energy sectors.

The bank adds that allocating a limited share of investment portfolios to gold, around 5% for example, can provide an additional level of hedging against market volatility and regulatory risks.

UBS estimates that the price of silver will reach $60 next year, with a temporary spike to $65 without being sustainable, according to Reuters.

Bank of America

The bank expects the average price of silver in 2026 to be around $56.25 per ounce, with a target level of $65.

Franklin Templeton

According to Franklin Templeton, a weak dollar typically leads to higher prices for many commodities priced in it, including gold and other precious metals. From this perspective, the decline of the U.S. currency opens the door for broader investment opportunities in various commodity markets.

Citi Group

The bank does not see gold as an attractive buying opportunity at a level of $4,200 per ounce, despite the difficulty of judging at current price levels. Its base scenario, which has a guiding probability of 50%, suggests a slow bearish trajectory over the year amid diminishing fears related to the impact of tariffs on growth and inflation. This is countered by supporting effects from rising gold prices due to interest rate cuts and concerns over widening budget deficits.

Conversely, its positive scenario, with a guiding probability of 30%, assumes a gradual rise in gold prices to $5,000 per ounce by the end of 2026, then to $6,000 by the end of 2027.