Reasons for Failure in Sudan and South Sudan

SadaNews - In the latest international report on South Sudan, the United Nations Human Rights Commission painted a dire picture of the situation there, as the report deemed it the poorest country in the world with a poverty rate of 92%. Meanwhile, the average income per person has dropped to a quarter of what it was on the eve of the modern state’s independence from Sudan in 2011.

The report summarizes the causes of poverty in the country as stemming from interconnected factors including institutional corruption, exploitative colonial history, weak rule of law, ongoing armed conflicts, and harsh climatic conditions.

This report comes amid a politically and security-tensed atmosphere following the security deterioration in the country after the arrest of Vice President Dr. Riek Machar and several of his close associates, who have been subjected to legal trials on serious charges, including murder, treason, and committing crimes against humanity, following military attacks carried out by the White Army militia.

These are armed groups from the Nuer tribe, to which the currently detained Vice President Riek Machar belongs, who is accused by the government of ordering this militia to attack the army, resulting in the death of over 250 government forces, including a high-ranking officer with the rank of major general. These developments pose a threat to the peace agreement signed between the government and Dr. Machar's group since 2018, following a bloody civil war that lasted five years between the two sides.

This picture reflecting South Sudan closely resembles the situation in Sudan, which also suffers from a civil war entering its third year, causing (the worst humanitarian disaster globally), according to the UN Secretary-General, and resulting in more than twenty thousand deaths.

Meanwhile, the losses in the health sector alone reached 11 billion dollars. As a result of severe divisions, the country today stands on the brink of a new separation threatening its unity, due to the establishment of a parallel government in areas controlled by the Rapid Support Forces militia in the Darfur region and the rebel forces of Abdelaziz al-Hilu in some areas of South Kordofan.

Despite ongoing international efforts to contain the conflict, there appear to be no realistic solutions on the horizon due to the widening gaps in the positions of the parties, intersecting regional and international interests, and the Rapid Support Forces' non-responsiveness to implement international resolutions, most notably the decisions of the Jeddah Declaration signed in May 2023 and United Nations Security Council Resolution 2736, issued in June 2024, which calls for the Rapid Support Forces to lift the siege on the city of El Fasher, the capital of Darfur, which is experiencing a severe humanitarian crisis, after two years of an all-out siege by the Rapid Support Forces. During this period, the armed forces and the joint forces fighting alongside them have repelled more than 240 waves of militia attacks enhanced by advanced weapons and various military tactics.

Explaining the Reasons for Failure in Both Countries

All the factors for success were available to South Sudan when it declared its independence from Sudan 14 years ago, as the South Sudanese elite inherited an oil-rich country free from the debts incurred by Sudan.

It was producing nearly half a million barrels of oil daily, along with its enormous agricultural, livestock, and other mineral resources, and it was supported by the international community, notably the United States and Israel, who view the birth of South Sudan as part of their historical achievements.

However, all these factors did not save South Sudan from becoming a model learning from the long African experiences of failure, wars, and disputes; rather, the nascent state descended into the quagmire of wars, conflicts, and internal divisions, as it waged a war with Sudan in 2012 when it occupied the oil-rich Heglig area in South Kordofan.

The strange paradox is that this area hosts the main facilities for oil processing and transportation in both countries, as it is known that South Sudan is not a coastal state and relies on the Sudanese oil pipeline that stretches for thousands of kilometers to Port Sudan in the far east of Sudan, with oil representing about 90% of South Sudan's hard currency resources.

After containing that war, by liberating the Heglig area, South Sudan entered into a civil war between the government and Riek Machar's group, the currently tried vice president. What appears to be a war between the government and another faction is not the full truth, as the powerful Dinka tribe, which represents about 36% of the total population, stands behind the government, while Riek Machar represents the ambitions of the Nuer tribe, the strongest competitor to the entrenched power of the Dinka there.

Overall, assessing the scene in both countries reveals that the nascent state carried with it the germ of (failure factors) from the mother state. At the independence celebration, an important signal was made in the speech of American official Susan Rice, as she gave sermons to the leaders of the new state, stating: (We hope that you will be able to live peacefully with your neighbors and work with them to resolve contentious issues peacefully, and all of this requires building good governance and strong institutions dedicated to serving the people. Justice depends on a system free from corruption and blemishes).

What Sudan failed to achieve in building strong institutions neutral from parties, and transitioning to a sustainable democratic system, the nascent state replicated in a more distorted manner.

It is known that the success of any state requires the existence of strong institutions subjecting all citizens to its authority and working to limit individual ambitions through enforcing the law as the supreme authority over all. Only then can democracy thrive, and citizens' capacities can be unleashed to build their country under the shadows of individual security and general reassurance.

It can be confidently said that this fundamental point represents the correct entry to understand the tragic situation that both countries ended up in today; a meaning summarized by South Sudanese journalist Atem Simon, commenting on the prevalence of the phenomenon of appointing relatives to official positions: (This practice reflects the weakness of political and official institutions in the country, and the political system's reliance on personal loyalties and blood ties, rather than on competence and institutional standards).

As for the manifestations of failure shared by both countries, they are almost countless, but some central issues can be summarized to help understand the nature of the complications surrounding both countries and contribute to prolonging the crisis, even deepening it:

1. The politicization of the public space is a significant problem impacting the benefits from qualified human resources, such as academics and national competencies, where nepotism and party and individual loyalties dominate as the leverages for public positions, while those factors obscure and restrict the capabilities of competent actors.

As a result, there is a general decline in the performance of public institutions, a lack of excellence, the spread of indifference culture, and the absence of transparency and accountability. This opens wide doors for institutional corruption that undermines the state’s cohesion now and in the future.

2. Weakening the civil space, including political parties, thus opening the door for establishing military militias seeking to gain economic and social privileges, making those military militias a substitute for political forces.

These militias often establish themselves on a tribal or regional basis, leading to deepening community division and spreading hatred among social components in the state, as well as providing reasons for the outbreak and continuation of the war at any moment.

As a result of the above two reasons, the conflict revolves around sharing power and wealth on tribal and regional bases, led by a small elite claiming to represent the marginalized sectors fighting wars in their name, while the truth is that this small elite represents only itself, and that the majority of citizens who are granted privileges in their name are living below the poverty line, increasing the class disparity among citizens and entrenching poverty at lower levels.

As a result of this extreme poverty, the lack of educational services, and the declining performance of state agencies, these communities continue to serve as a breeding ground for fighters for the politicized militias, thus perpetuating the cycle of violence indefinitely.

So What Next?

Both countries stand on the precipice of a sharp cliff due to the continuation of conflicts, and the state’s declining capacity to produce solutions to the accumulated crises. Despite the difficult situation in both countries, opportunities remain ample for redress and revision to return to the right path. To achieve this, it is necessary to gather national will and rid oneself of petty selfish interests.

The elite in both countries need to understand that public interest lasts longer than individual benefits, and that building strong institutions with independent justice agencies, free press, and competent civil service based on efficiency offers protection for them first, benefits for their people second, and strength for their nations third.

The elite in both countries need to understand that the spread of the culture of militarizing the political space, and reliance on armed militias while diminishing the role of civil space, represents a severe weakening of the state’s immunity and its capacity to hold together, as well as weakening the national military institution, which is one of the manifestations of the strength of the modern state.

Finally, the elite in both countries need to realize that national dialogue that includes all the country’s children is the antidote to fragmentation and disintegration, where political practice foundations are agreed upon and transformed into constitutional texts that are respected and safeguarded by commitment.